20-Year DCA Study · Triple-Verified Data · S&P 500 · ASM · Fixed Deposit · Jan 2005–Dec 2024

Same RM100.
Same 20 Years.
Three Very Different Outcomes.

Fully triple-checked against Slickcharts (S&P 500), ASNB/StashAway (ASM), and World Bank/Ycharts (FD). One correction found: ASM 2019 dividend was 4.25% — not 5.50% as previously modelled.

RM24,000
Principal · All Three
RM98,524
S&P 500 Final
RM44,046
ASM Final
RM31,629
Fixed Deposit Final
RM66,895
Best vs Worst Gap
01 · Portfolio Summary
Final Portfolio Values — December 2024
Data verified: S&P 500 → Slickcharts  ·  ASM → ASNB/StashAway official  ·  FD → World Bank/Ycharts. One correction applied: ASM 2019 restated to 4.25%.
S&P 500 Index FundBEST RETURN
RM98,524
+RM74,524
Total Gain
12.57%
Ann. IRR
4.11×
Multiple
16.91%
Volatility
0.60
Sharpe
−16.6%
Max Drawdown
✅ Covers full private university (avg RM80k) with RM18,524 surplus. Child starts adult life completely debt-free.
ASM · ASNB Fixed Unit PriceCAPITAL SAFE
RM44,046
+RM20,046
Total Gain
5.70%
Ann. IRR
1.84×
Multiple
1.15%
Volatility
2.78
Sharpe
RM0
Capital Loss
⚠️ Covers 1–2 years of university. Unit price held at RM1.00 throughout — zero capital loss across 20 years and two major recessions.
Maybank Fixed DepositGUARANTEED
RM31,629
+RM7,629
Total Gain
2.67%
Ann. IRR
1.32×
Multiple
0.47%
Volatility
0.36
Sharpe
RM0
Capital Loss
❌ Falls RM48,371 short of RM80k tuition. Real purchasing power barely above zero — avg rate 2.67% vs 2.5% inflation over 20 years.
Opp. Cost — FD vs S&P
−RM66,895
What the Fixed Deposit family left on the table. Enough to buy a fully-loaded Perodua Myvi outright and keep change.
Opp. Cost — ASM vs S&P
−RM54,477
The safety premium the ASM family paid. Traded RM54k of returns for zero capital risk and zero market anxiety.
ASM vs FD Advantage
+RM12,417
ASM beat Fixed Deposit by RM12,417 with identical zero capital risk. There is no rational case for FD over ASM.
DCA vs Lump Sum (S&P)
RM172,182
Lump sum RM24k in Jan 2005 → RM172,182. DCA returned RM73,658 less but eliminated market-timing risk entirely.
02 · Portfolio Growth
Cumulative Portfolio Value — 2005 to 2024
Year-end snapshots · RM100 contributed at the start of each month · 240 total contributions
S&P 500ASMFixed DepositPrincipal
RM100/month · Jan 2005 – Dec 2024 · triple-verified
Annual Returns Generated (market gains only, excl. contributions)
Negative S&P bars = DCA buying opportunities
Portfolio Divergence Gap Over Time
RM gap: S&P vs ASM and S&P vs FD
S&P 500 DCA Result
RM98,524
Buying through every crash — 2008, 2018, 2020, 2022 — ensured depressed-price units compounded for 10–15 years.
S&P Lump Sum (RM24k, Jan 2005)
RM172,182
DCA returns RM73,658 less than lump sum but avoids the risk of a single bad entry point destroying your returns.
First RM100 Grown (Jan 2005 → Dec 2024)
RM717
That first RM100 compounded 240 months: S&P RM717 · ASM RM314 · FD RM173. Time is the most powerful variable.
03 · Risk Analysis
Volatility, Drawdown & Risk-Adjusted Returns
What each unit of return actually cost in terms of risk — the price paid for performance
Annual Return Rate (%) — All Three Vehicles
S&P negative years in red · 2005–2024
Volatility & Sharpe Ratio
Higher Sharpe = better risk-adjusted return
Return Volatility (std. dev. of annual returns)
S&P 500
16.91%
ASM
1.15%
Fixed Dep.
0.47%
Sharpe Ratio (IRR − 2.5% ÷ volatility)
ASM
2.78
S&P 500
0.60
Fixed Dep.
0.36
ASM has the highest Sharpe ratio (2.78) — best return per unit of risk. S&P wins on absolute return but demands 14.7× more annual volatility tolerance than ASM.
S&P Portfolio Max Drawdown
−16.6%
Worst monthly dip of the DCA portfolio during 2008–09. Lower than the index drawdown because ongoing contributions bought dips.
S&P Negative Return Years
3 of 20
2008 (−37%), 2018 (−4.4%), 2022 (−18.1%). All three recovered fully within 12–18 months. Quitting was the only permanent loss.
ASM Dividend Floor
4.00%
Lowest payout: 4.00% in 2020, 2021, 2022. ASM never declared below 4% in 20 years and never returned a negative year.
FD Rate Floor
1.56%
Hit in 2021 as BNM cut OPR to a record low 1.75%. Below the long-run inflation rate — real FD return went negative.
04 · Correlation Analysis
How the Three Vehicles Move in Relation to Each Other
Pearson correlation · 20 annual data points · Range: −1.0 (perfect inverse) to +1.0 (perfect positive)
−0.38
S&P 500 vs ASM
Weak negative. When S&P crashes, ASM holds or improves. Natural hedge pair. Holding both reduces portfolio swings significantly.
−0.22
S&P 500 vs FD
Weak negative. FD rates often drop during equity crises when BNM cuts OPR in response (2009, 2020). They fall together.
+0.71
ASM vs Fixed Deposit
Strong positive. Both are BNM OPR-sensitive domestic instruments. When BNM cuts rates, both fall simultaneously. No diversification benefit holding both.
Portfolio Implication

The S&P 500 is negatively correlated with both local instruments (−0.38 vs ASM, −0.22 vs FD). This is the mathematical case for diversification: combining S&P with ASM reduces overall portfolio volatility without proportionate return sacrifice.

The ASM–FD correlation of +0.71 means they are near-substitutes. Both are driven by the same BNM OPR cycle. The only meaningful difference is ASM's consistent 2–4% dividend premium over FD — with identical capital protection.

Optimal portfolio: S&P 500 + ASM. S&P provides high long-run growth; ASM provides a domestic stable floor that partially hedges US equity drawdowns. Adding FD on top of ASM adds nothing — same risk profile, lower return.

Scatter: S&P Return vs ASM & FD Return
Each dot = 1 year · 20 data points · negative correlation visible
05 · Market Events
Six Defining Moments — How Each Vehicle Responded
Annual return for each vehicle during the six most significant market events of the study period
2008
Global Financial Crisis — Lehman Collapses
Worst financial year since 1931. S&P lost 37% but ASM paid its all-time high dividend of 7.80%. DCA investors kept buying, accumulating cheap units that compounded hugely over the next 15 years.
−37.00%
S&P 500
+7.80%
ASM
+3.13%
Fixed Dep.
2009
The Recovery — DCA's Greatest Advantage
S&P rebounded +26.46%. Investors who continued their RM100/month through the crash had purchased units at decade-low prices. Those contributions became the most valuable of the entire 20-year study.
+26.46%
S&P 500
+6.25%
ASM
+2.08%
Fixed Dep.
2013
Post-QE Bull Market — Best S&P Year
Fed stimulus drove S&P to +32.39%, its best year in decades. The RM4,151 gain this single year exceeded the entire 20-year FD interest of RM7,629. ASM declared a special 0.30 bonus in addition to its regular 6.50 distribution, total 6.80.
+32.39%
S&P 500
+6.80%
ASM
+2.97%
Fixed Dep.
2020
COVID-19 — Fastest Crash in Market History
S&P dropped 34% in 33 days, then recovered to finish +18.4%. ASM paid 4.00% — its lowest at the time. FD fell below 2% as BNM cut OPR to a record 1.75%.
+18.40%
S&P 500
+4.00%
ASM
+1.96%
Fixed Dep.
2022
Fed Rate Hike Cycle — Fastest in 40 Years
The Fed hiked from 0.25% to 4.5% in 12 months. S&P fell 18.1%. ASM and FD were unaffected — driven by BNM, not the Fed. ASM held its 4.00% dividend floor for the third consecutive year.
−18.11%
S&P 500
+4.00%
ASM
+1.95%
Fixed Dep.
2023–2024
AI & Tech Rally — Consecutive 25%+ Years
AI euphoria drove consecutive banner years: +26.29% and +25.02%. These two years alone added RM35,603 to the S&P portfolio, pushing the gap to its widest ever. The Rahman family crossed RM98k from under RM78k in just 24 months.
+25.02%
S&P '24
+4.75%
ASM '24
+2.65%
FD '24
06 · Return Breakdown
Where the Returns Actually Come From
Annual interest and market gains each year — RM1,200 annual contributions excluded to isolate pure investment performance
Annual Returns Generated (market gains, excl. RM1,200/yr contributions)
Negative S&P years = the years DCA investors bought at the best prices
Gain Composition — Principal vs Returns
After 20 years · based on one family's RM24,000 investment
Rolling 5-Year Portfolio Growth (%)
Each year: how much portfolio grew vs 5 years prior
07 · Real Value Analysis
Inflation-Adjusted Purchasing Power
All values deflated at 2.5% average Malaysian CPI — nominal vs real comparison
Principal Real Value (2.5% CPI)
RM14,647
Your RM24,000 in 2024 purchasing power. Inflation eroded RM9,353 of your contributions over 20 years.
S&P 500 Real Value
RM60,126
After inflation, the S&P portfolio is worth RM60,126 — a 4.1× real return over what was actually invested.
ASM Real Value
RM26,880
ASM real value RM26,880 — beats inflation, but by a narrowing margin as dividends trended from 7.2% → 4.75%.
Fixed Deposit Real Value
RM19,302
FD real value RM19,302 vs principal real RM14,647 — only RM4,655 real gain from 20 years of monthly saving.
Nominal vs Real Portfolio Value
Solid lines = nominal · dashed lines = inflation-adjusted at 2.5% CPI
08 · Full Verified Data
Complete 20-Year Year-by-Year Record
Triple-checked against primary sources — correction applied: ASM 2019 restated from 5.50% to 4.25%
Year-by-Year Performance
S&P: Slickcharts ✓ASM: ASNB/StashAway ✓FD: World Bank ✓
YearS&P RateS&P PortfolioS&P Yr GainASM Div.ASM PortfolioASM Yr GainFD RateFD PortfolioFD Yr GainPrincipal
Key Findings
What Triple-Verified 20-Year Data Tells Us
4.11×
Every ringgit in the S&P 500 became RM4.11 — vs RM1.84 in ASM and RM1.32 in fixed deposit over 20 years
2.78
ASM's Sharpe ratio — highest risk-adjusted return. Best return per unit of volatility of the three vehicles
−0.38
Correlation between S&P and ASM — they move in opposite directions, making them natural portfolio partners
RM4,655
Real purchasing power gain from Fixed Deposit in 20 years after 2.5% inflation. Near-zero wealth creation.