2016–2026 MEAN RATIO
80.94
ELEVATED VS. 20YR AVG (~65)
10Y PEAK RATIO
125.89
↑ 2020-03-18 · COVID PANIC
CURRENT RATIO
64.36
▼ −1.79σ VS 10Y MEAN
GOLD (GC=F)
$4,526
10Y RANGE: $1,127 – $5,318
SILVER (SI=F)
$70.32
OFF 39% FROM JAN 2026 HIGH ($115.08)
ELEVATED EPISODES
17
ALL CLOSED WITHIN DATASET
⚠ PERIOD-SPECIFIC MEAN: The 10yr mean of ~81 reflects a structurally elevated 2016–2026 window (driven by the 2020 COVID spike). Longer-term 20yr+ averages sit in the 50–70 range. Context matters when framing "normal."
⚠ CLOSURE RATE: All 17 episodes closed within this observation window — partly a function of dataset length and threshold definition. Mean reversion is a tendency, not a guarantee; ratios can stay elevated for months.
⚠ SILVER DRAWDOWN: The ~39% decline from the Jan/Feb 2026 high ($115.08) to current ($70.32) is a post-rally correction within an ongoing structural bull market, not necessarily a return to prior equilibrium.
GOLD/SILVER RATIO — MONTHLY AVG (2016–2026)
RED = ABOVE ELEVATED THRESHOLD (86.17) · GREEN = BELOW 70 · DASHED ORANGE = 20YR AVG (~65)
■ ABOVE 86.17
■ NORMAL
■ BELOW 70
– – 20YR AVG
DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS (2016–2026)
MEAN (10YR)80.94
MEDIAN (10YR)80.98
20YR HIST AVG~65
STD DEV9.24
25TH PERCENTILE75.48
75TH PERCENTILE86.17
10Y LOW44.14
10Y HIGH125.89
CURRENT (2026-03-30)64.36
GAP CLOSURE METRICS
TOTAL EPISODES17
CLOSED IN DATASET17 / 17
AVG CLOSURE21 DAYS
MEDIAN CLOSURE9 DAYS
FASTEST CLOSE1 DAY
SLOWEST CLOSE125 DAYS
CLOSURE TIME DISTRIBUTION
≤ 7 DAYS
8
47.1%
8–30 DAYS
7
41.2%
31–90 DAYS
0
0.0%
91–180 DAYS
2
11.8%
> 180 DAYS
0
0.0%
02
SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE EPISODES
THRESHOLD: 75TH PERCENTILE (86.17) · ≥5 CONSECUTIVE TRADING DAYS · SORTED BY PEAK RATIO · CLOSURE = RETURN TO ENTRY LEVEL
LARGEST GAP — COVID-19 PANIC (2020-03-18): 125.89:1
Gold held at $1,477 while silver collapsed to $11.73 — dollar spread of $1,465.57. Exceeded the prior modern-era high of ~97 (1991 Gulf War). Silver sold as industrial metal in a liquidity panic; gold held as safe-haven. Gap took 125 calendar days to close — demonstrating extreme divergences can persist months before reversing.
SECOND-LARGEST — TARIFF SHOCK (2025-04-21): 104.82:1
Gold surged to $3,406 on safe-haven demand while silver lagged on industrial demand concerns from tariff-induced slowdown fears. Gold-price-led divergence — silver was not at historically cheap absolute prices. Closed in 93 calendar days by July 2025.
| # | EPISODE START | PEAK DATE | PEAK RATIO | ENTRY | GOLD @ PEAK | SILVER @ PEAK | CLOSED DATE | DURATION | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | 2020-01-09 | 2020-03-18 | 125.89 | 86.88 | $1,477.30 | $11.73 | 2020-07-21 | 125 d | CLOSED |
| 02 | 2024-12-13 | 2025-04-21 | 104.82 | 86.64 | $3,406.20 | $32.50 | 2025-07-23 | 93 d | CLOSED |
| 03 | 2022-06-28 | 2022-09-01 | 96.67 | 87.39 | $1,696.60 | $17.55 | 2022-09-14 | 13 d | CLOSED |
| 04 | 2019-05-06 | 2019-07-05 | 93.63 | 86.27 | $1,396.70 | $14.92 | 2019-07-24 | 19 d | CLOSED |
| 05 | 2023-02-24 | 2023-03-10 | 91.39 | 86.94 | $1,862.00 | $20.38 | 2023-03-14 | 4 d | CLOSED |
| 06 | 2023-12-29 | 2024-02-07 | 91.35 | 86.46 | $2,035.20 | $22.28 | 2024-02-16 | 9 d | CLOSED |
| 07 | 2022-10-11 | 2022-10-14 | 91.13 | 86.41 | $1,641.70 | $18.01 | 2022-10-24 | 10 d | CLOSED |
| 08 | 2024-02-20 | 2024-02-28 | 90.72 | 87.75 | $2,033.00 | $22.41 | 2024-03-13 | 14 d | CLOSED |
| 09 | 2019-07-25 | 2019-08-06 | 89.75 | 86.54 | $1,472.40 | $16.41 | 2019-08-27 | 21 d | CLOSED |
| 10 | 2024-08-30 | 2024-09-06 | 89.67 | 86.80 | $2,493.50 | $27.81 | 2024-09-12 | 6 d | CLOSED |
| 11 | 2024-03-19 | 2024-04-01 | 89.62 | 86.38 | $2,236.50 | $24.95 | 2024-04-03 | 2 d | CLOSED |
| 12 | 2024-08-05 | 2024-08-14 | 89.51 | 88.70 | $2,439.40 | $27.25 | 2024-08-15 | 1 d | CLOSED |
| 13 | 2022-09-23 | 2022-09-29 | 89.11 | 87.33 | $1,658.50 | $18.61 | 2022-10-03 | 4 d | CLOSED |
| 14 | 2019-11-29 | 2019-12-06 | 88.53 | 86.37 | $1,459.10 | $16.48 | 2019-12-20 | 14 d | CLOSED |
| 15 | 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-17 | 88.25 | 86.61 | $3,681.80 | $41.72 | 2025-09-19 | 2 d | CLOSED |
| 16 | 2024-11-21 | 2024-11-27 | 87.67 | 86.44 | $2,639.90 | $30.11 | 2024-12-03 | 6 d | CLOSED |
| 17 | 2019-11-07 | 2019-11-12 | 87.07 | 86.28 | $1,452.10 | $16.68 | 2019-11-19 | 7 d | CLOSED |
05
SEASONAL & TEMPORAL PATTERNS
AVG RATIO BY CALENDAR MONTH
JAN
78.11
FEB
79.31
MAR
81.32
APR
83.82
MAY
83.43
JUN
82.09
JUL
81.53
AUG
80.64
SEP
80.71
OCT
81.01
NOV
80.36
DEC
78.82
APR–MAY AVERAGE PREMIUM
Apr (~83.8) and May (~83.4) show the highest monthly averages — ~5 pts above the Dec–Feb lows. Likely reflects gold's seasonal demand window and silver's industrial softness in early spring. These are averages across 10 years; individual years show significant variation.
DEC–FEB COMPRESSION
Dec (~78.8) and Jan (~78.1) show the lowest avg ratios. Silver tends to benefit from industrial/tech demand planning and year-end risk-on positioning into the new year.
SEP PEAK CLUSTERING
4 of 17 divergence peaks occurred in September — more than any other single month. Late-summer liquidity and Q4 positioning may be recurring catalysts. Note: 17 events is too small a sample to treat this as a reliable seasonal signal.
06
ANNUAL RATIO SNAPSHOT
| YEAR | MIN | MAX | AVG | YE GOLD | YE SILVER | YE RATIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 65.64 | 83.51 | 72.96 | $1,150 | $15.94 | 72.16 |
| 2017 | 67.72 | 79.58 | 73.98 | $1,306 | $17.06 | 76.57 |
| 2018 | 75.70 | 86.58 | 81.16 | $1,278 | $15.43 | 82.83 |
| 2019 | 79.95 | 93.63 | 86.27 | $1,520 | $17.83 | 85.23 |
| 2020 | 69.09 | 125.89 | 88.70 | $1,893 | $26.33 | 71.89 |
| 2021 | 63.30 | 81.95 | 71.80 | $1,828 | $23.33 | 78.34 |
| 2022 | 74.56 | 96.67 | 83.27 | $1,820 | $23.86 | 76.26 |
| 2023 | 76.47 | 91.39 | 83.18 | $2,062 | $23.85 | 86.46 |
| 2024 | 72.67 | 91.35 | 84.77 | $2,629 | $28.94 | 90.85 |
| 2025 | 56.48 | 104.82 | 87.82 | $4,326 | $70.13 | 61.68 |
| 2026 | 44.14 | 66.48 | 59.02 | $4,526 | $70.32 | 64.36 |
SECULAR EXPANSION (2016–2024) THEN SHARP CONTRACTION (2025–2026)
The annual avg ratio rose steadily from ~73 (2016–17) to ~88 (2024) as silver underperformed. That trend reversed sharply: 2025 averaged ~87.8 but ended at 61.7, and 2026 YTD averages ~59 with a current level of 64.4. The Jan 2026 low of 44.1 was the lowest in this dataset — but ratios in the 40s have appeared in longer records (2011 silver bull market reached ~32, and the 20yr avg is ~65).
08
HISTORICAL CONTEXT — HOW INVESTORS HAVE INTERPRETED THIS RATIO
FOR EDUCATIONAL & RESEARCH PURPOSES ONLY · NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE · PAST PATTERNS DO NOT PREDICT FUTURE OUTCOMES
TYPE A · ROUTINE RATIO FLUCTUATION (15 OF 17 EPISODES)
15 of 17 elevated-ratio episodes in this dataset resolved within 1–21 days. These shorter episodes coincided with periods where gold temporarily outperformed silver before returning to a more historically typical relationship. No macro catalyst was identifiable in most cases.
TYPE B · MACRO-DRIVEN DISLOCATION (2 OF 17 EPISODES)
2 episodes took 93–125 days to resolve — the COVID-19 panic (2020) and the 2025 tariff shock. Both were associated with broader macroeconomic dislocations where the ratio moved significantly beyond historical norms before eventually returning toward prior levels.
WHAT THE BIMODAL PATTERN SHOWS
The dataset shows a clear bimodal pattern in episode duration — either very fast resolution (≤30 days, 88% of episodes) or very slow (90–125 days, 12%). There are zero episodes in the 31–90 day range. This is a descriptive observation from 17 events; small sample sizes limit statistical conclusions.
RATIO CONTEXT — HISTORICAL REFERENCE RANGES (DESCRIPTIVE ONLY)
| RATIO RANGE | Z-SCORE VS 10YR MEAN | HISTORICAL OCCURRENCE IN DATASET | OBSERVED CONTEXT | 20YR PERSPECTIVE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 95 | +1.5σ | Rare — only 2 of 17 episodes peaked here | Associated with major macro dislocations (COVID, tariff shock) | Historically extreme within any time horizon |
| 86 – 95 | +0.5 – 1.5σ | 15 episodes peaked in this range | Gold outperforming silver beyond the 75th percentile threshold | Elevated vs. 20yr avg of ~65 |
| 75 – 86 | ±0.5σ | Most common range — majority of trading days | Within the typical 2016–2026 band; no notable divergence | Above the 20yr avg (~65) |
| 65 – 75 | −0.5 – −1.5σ | Observed in 2016–17 and late 2021 | Silver outperforming gold; below 10yr mean | Near or slightly below the 20yr avg |
| < 65 | < −1.5σ | Current level (64.36) — decade low in this dataset | Silver at its strongest relative to gold in 10yr window; $115.08 high Jan 2026, now off 39% | Close to the 20yr historical avg (~65) — not extreme in longer context |
⚠ IMPORTANT: The table above is a descriptive summary of historical observations only. It does not constitute a trading signal, recommendation, or forecast. The 10-year mean of ~81 is specific to the 2016–2026 window — longer-term averages sit closer to 50–70. Any decision to buy, sell, or hold any asset should be made with the guidance of a licensed financial professional.
07
KEY FINDINGS
DESCRIPTIVE OF PAST BEHAVIOR · NO PREDICTIVE GUARANTEE FOR FUTURE OUTCOMES
01 · COVID-19 LARGEST DIVERGENCE IN DATASET
The 125.89 ratio on 2020-03-18 was the highest recorded in this 10-year window. Silver traded at $11.73 while gold held at $1,477. The $1,465.57 dollar spread was the widest in modern history for this dataset. The gap took 125 days to close — not the rapid snap-back seen in smaller episodes.
02 · 2025 TARIFF SHOCK — SECOND STRUCTURAL EPISODE
The April 2025 spike to 104.82 was gold-price-led (surging above $3,400) rather than silver-crash-driven. Silver was not at historically cheap absolute prices — the high ratio reflected gold's extreme safe-haven premium. Closed in 93 days.
03 · CURRENT 64.4 — 10YR LOW WITHIN ELEVATED WINDOW
At −1.8σ below the 2016–2026 mean, this is the lowest recorded in this dataset. However the 10yr mean (~81) was itself elevated. Compared to the 20yr avg (~65), the current ratio of ~64 is below average but not extreme. Silver's ~39% drawdown from the Jan 2026 high ($115.08 → $70.32) is a correction within an ongoing bull market.
04 · MEAN REVERSION — TENDENCY, NOT GUARANTEE
High-ratio episodes showed strong mean-reversion — 88% resolved within 30 days, all 17 eventually closed. However, "mean reversion" does not specify timing, direction, or magnitude. The ratio can remain dislocated for months. These patterns are informative for context but should not be interpreted as predictive signals.