This Week: AMD Earnings Tue Non-Farm Payrolls Fri Iran Strikes Called Off, Oil Craters CPI Aug 12 Fed-Treasury Yen Intervention

Markets

Monday Recap

Trump Calls Off Iran Strikes. Oil Craters, Stocks Rip.

Two things happened at once Monday: the war premium that drove last week's report came out of the tape, and hyperscaler earnings blew past estimates. Amazon and Microsoft each jumped roughly 15% on their prints, pushing Amazon's market cap past $3 trillion, oil fell more than 5% on the Iran de-escalation headline, and the Dow closed at a record. Gold and silver barely moved through any of it.

By Lei Holdings Research

Monday, August 3, 2026 close · Prepared August 4, 2026 · Published every weekday morning — see the full archive

SPY$757.67+1.4% day

QQQ$700.07+1.8% day

SMH$545.46+0.9% day

GLD$371.71+0.05% day

SLV$52.46+0.2% day

USO$122.12−5.5% day

USD/JPY¥157.66near 40-yr low

Trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange — The floor of the New York Stock Exchange, where Monday's session produced the Dow's best close of the year. Photo: Wikimedia Commons

Hyperscaler Earnings Blew the Doors Off — That's the Real Story

Amazon and Microsoft both jumped roughly 15% on their prints, pushing Amazon's market cap past $3 trillion, and Palantir raised guidance again after the close. The Iran headline gave the market permission to rally; hyperscaler earnings gave it a reason.

The four hyperscalers behind Monday's rally — all reported AI-capex spend that's finally converting into revenue growth, not just cost.

AMZN post-earnings

~+15%

MSFT post-earnings

~+15%

META Mon close

+6.0%

AWS revenue growth

36.7%

What actually happened

The AI-capex trade flipped from fade to buy

Amazon and Microsoft each jumped ~15%, pushing Amazon's market cap past $3 trillion. AWS grew 36.7% vs. 31.2% expected — the acceleration investors had been waiting for. Zacks put it bluntly: "hyperscaler earnings flipped from a fade to a buy." Meta (+6.0%) and Alphabet rode the same wave.

Palantir added to the pile after the bell

A fifth straight beat-and-raise, guidance up again

Q2: revenue up 93% YoY to $1.94B, EPS $0.41 vs. $0.35 expected, U.S. commercial up 100%+ for a fourth straight quarter, guidance raised again. Shares popped as much as 14% after-hours. Karp used the call to jab rival AI labs over "AI sovereignty" — see below.

Alex Karp

CEO, Palantir Technologies

Used Monday's call to needle rival AI labs over "AI sovereignty" — the same day PLTR posted its fifth straight beat-and-raise quarter. Photo: UK Government / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0.

SMH Mon close

+2.83%

SMH 14D RSI

43.9

QQQ Mon close

+1.71%

SPY Mon close

+1.10%

SMH · VanEck Semiconductor ETF

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $545.46
Source: FMP EOD data

Peak $586.91 (Jul 22) → trough $504.22 (Jul 29) → Monday close $545.46, up 2.8% on the day. Still below its 50-day average; RSI at 43.9 is climbing out of oversold but MACD hasn't crossed positive — chip stocks are riding the hyperscaler capex story up without their own technical confirmation yet.

Separate from the rally: Bezos disclosed a ~25M-share AMZN sale (~$5.4B) under a pre-existing 10b5-1 plan — scheduled, not a reaction, but worth flagging given the size. AMD reports today: $11.2B revenue (+46% YoY) and $1.67 EPS expected — the test of whether semis, not just mega-caps, can catch up. Disney, Shopify, and Uber report Wednesday.

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Oil Fell Off a Cliff. Gold Shrugged.

Oil gave back its entire war premium in one session on the Iran de-escalation headline. Gold and silver moved almost nothing — more evidence they were never really trading the Gulf story.

USO · United States Oil Fund

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $122.12
Source: FMP EOD data

Fell 5.5% Monday to $122.12 after the White House called off planned Iran strikes — the sharpest single-day drop since the Strait crisis began. RSI 48.9 and MACD near flat: the uptrend is stalling, not confirmed broken. Reuters reports Tuesday oil is ticking back up as talks to end the US-Iran standoff remain uncertain.

GLD · SPDR Gold Shares

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $371.71
Source: FMP EOD data

Essentially unchanged Monday even as oil fell 5.5% — confirmation gold's recent chop has little to do with the Gulf story. RSI 45.9 is neutral. Kitco reports gold is holding its $4,000 floor as the market weighs Friday's labor data against still-jittery Middle East diplomacy.

Oil tanker at sea, representing Gulf shipping routes — Oil gave back its war premium in a single session once the market judged Gulf risk was easing — the flip side of how fast that premium was built. Photo: Unsplash

Why oil cratered

The White House called off planned strikes on Iran over the weekend

WSJ: markets are pricing prospects for reopening the Strait of Hormuz

US crude exports fell to an eight-month low in July, per Reuters ship-tracking data

Why the drop may not stick

Reuters, Aug 4: talks to formally end the US-Iran standoff remain uncertain, and oil is already ticking back up

No confirmed ceasefire yet — this is a de-escalation signal, not a resolved conflict

OPEC+'s September quota hike still hasn't fully reached the market

USD/JPY

¥157.66

JPY vs 40yr low

recovering

Fed FIMA limit

$60B

GLD 14D RSI

45.9

The bigger FX story: the yen slid to a 40-year low over the weekend, triggering a rare joint US-Japan intervention. Treasury Secretary Bessent now wants the Fed to expand its FIMA Repo Facility (currently capped at $60B) so Japan can raise dollars without dumping Treasuries. The yen has stabilized, but WSJ says investors are skeptical it holds without more action.

Bank of Japan headquarters in Tokyo — The Bank of Japan's Nihonbashi headquarters — the other side of the weekend's joint currency intervention, and the institution the Fed is now being asked to help backstop. Photo: Wikimedia Commons

What’s on the Calendar

AMD reports today. Friday's jobs report is still the week's biggest volatility event for gold and the yen.

Mon Aug 3

—

Iran-strike stand-down headline; ISM Manufacturing PMI hit a four-year high

Oil fell 5.5%, the Dow closed at a record, and tech led the rally.

Tue Aug 4

AMD

AMD earnings; JOLTS (Jun)

Est. $11.2B revenue (+46% YoY), $1.67 EPS — the AI-capex bellwether, today.

Wed Aug 5

SNDK

ISM Services PMI; ADP employment; SanDisk, Disney, Shopify, Uber earnings

PMI est. 54.2 — a beat supports the dollar, pressures gold.

Thu Aug 6

—

Initial claims; unit labor costs

Secondary labor-market read ahead of Friday's payrolls.

Fri Aug 7

NFP

Non-Farm Payrolls (Jul), unemployment; CFTC positioning (gold, JPY, S&P, crude) High vol

Est. +91k vs prior +57k, unemployment est. 4.3%. Biggest swing risk of the week for gold and the yen.

Wed Aug 12

CPI

US CPI (Jul) High vol

Core YoY est. 2.5% vs 2.6% prior — the key print for the Fed path and gold's real-yield anchor.

Sun Aug 9

BoJ

BoJ Summary of Opinions

Best live read on how close the next BoJ hike is — a direct JPY driver and carry-unwind risk.

Flagged — unverified or single-sourced

No formal ceasefire or resolution to the US-Iran standoff has been confirmed — Reuters reports talks remain uncertain as of Tuesday, and oil is already ticking back up. Treat Monday's move as de-escalation, not resolution.
Bessent's push to expand the Fed's FIMA Repo Facility is a policy request, not yet an approved change — worth watching whether the Fed grants it.

Four Markets, One Story

Four desks — equities, commodities, rates, FX — are trading the same story from different angles.

Earnings + de-escalation → risk-on → semis

Two catalysts stacked Monday: hyperscaler earnings (AMZN, MSFT +~15%) and the Iran stand-down. SMH, QQQ, SPY all rallied. But semis haven't confirmed the move technically — they're riding the mega-cap story, not their own re-rating.

Gold's non-reaction is the real signal

Gold and silver barely moved while oil fell 5.5% and equities ripped — confirmation gold is trading real yields and Fed credibility, not the Gulf headline cycle. Friday's payrolls matter more to it than any Iran news this week.

The yen intervention is the new wildcard

A joint US-Japan intervention after the yen hit a 40-year low, plus Bessent's FIMA push, pulls the Fed into defending a foreign currency — unusual, unresolved. WSJ says investors are skeptical the bounce holds.

The quiet story: valuation, not geopolitics

The S&P's earnings yield has dropped below the 10-year Treasury — a negative risk premium last seen near 1999. A structural headwind, independent of Iran, oil, or the yen, that doesn't go away on a good headline day.

Kevin Warsh

Chair, Federal Reserve

Three of this week's four threads — gold's real-yield trade, the FIMA facility request, and the earnings-yield/Treasury gap — run through the same institution. Photo: Federal Reserve / Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

Where This Leaves Positioning

SMH $504–530

The air pocket from the late-July selloff. Monday's bounce to $545 needs to hold above this zone, or a weak AMD print today reopens it.

SPY $758

Monday's close and a fresh short-term high. A push through it on AMD strength confirms the relief rally has legs; failure here says the bounce was a one-day headline trade.

GLD $367

Still the level that matters — a close under it with rising real yields would confirm real yields are dominating gold's hedge bid, independent of Monday's oil move.

USO $120–125

Where oil landed after Monday's drop. Reuters already flags oil ticking back up Tuesday — this zone is the line between "de-escalation priced in" and "war premium creeping back."

USD/JPY ¥155

Next support if the joint intervention fails to hold. A break lower means the Fed's FIMA facility discussion moves from a request to a necessity.

Talks stall

De-escalation proves premature

Reuters already reports Tuesday that talks to formally end the US-Iran standoff remain uncertain. If headlines turn negative again, oil's war premium likely snaps back fast, and Monday's equity rally gives back gains just as quickly.

Read-through: oil spikes back toward $130+, semis and broader risk assets give back Monday's gains.

De-escalation holds

A real off-ramp emerges

If the stand-down turns into an actual ceasefire framework, oil likely grinds lower toward the OPEC+ supply increase finally reaching market, and equities extend Monday's rally into AMD and Friday's payrolls.

Read-through: oil breaks below $120, risk-on extends, gold stays a real-yields trade regardless.

Base case

A real relief rally, but not yet a resolved conflict. AMD and Friday's payrolls are the next tests.

Equities: broad, earnings-driven rally — AMZN and MSFT +~15% on real cloud acceleration, PLTR beat-and-raise after the bell. AMD's print today either extends it or reopens the $504–530 air pocket. Earnings yield below the 10-year Treasury stays a headwind.

Commodities: oil's 5.5% drop is de-escalation, not resolution — already ticking back up Tuesday. Gold and silver stay a real-yields trade into payrolls; CPI on Aug 12 matters more than any Gulf headline.

FX: the yen has stabilized since the joint intervention, but WSJ says investors doubt it holds without more Fed action — watch whether the FIMA facility actually expands.

The wildcard: whether Monday's de-escalation survives actual negotiations. Reuters already shows cracks Tuesday — a reversal hits oil, and risk sentiment, fast.

—

Sources

Oil ticks up after selloff as US-Iran talks remain uncertain — Reuters, Aug 4 2026 Oil falls amid prospects for reopening of Strait of Hormuz — WSJ, Aug 3 2026 The Dow adds 560 points as oil prices fall off a cliff — Fool.com, Aug 3 2026 Why Bessent is leaning on the Fed to help prop up Japan's currency — WSJ, Aug 3 2026 Fed may be pulled into Bessent's effort to support the yen — CNBC, Aug 3 2026 Investors remain skeptical about the yen after US intervention — WSJ, Aug 3 2026 Bear Market Signals: Semiconductor Stocks Sink — Seeking Alpha, Aug 3 2026 Gold's $4,000 floor offers compelling value — Kitco, Aug 3 2026 Amazon Just Flipped the AI Capex Narrative — Zacks, Aug 3 2026 Why Amazon looks better than Microsoft after each jumped 15% post earnings — 24/7 Wall St, Aug 3 2026 Amazon May Lead The Golden Age Of Autonomous Technology — Seeking Alpha, Aug 3 2026 Palantir: Estimates Blown Away, Shares Soar — Seeking Alpha, Aug 3 2026 Palantir CEO Alex Karp on rival AI labs — Business Insider, Aug 3 2026 Price, RSI, and MACD data computed from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) EOD data, pulled Aug 4, 2026. Bezos AMZN share-sale figures via news reports, Aug 2026.