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This Week: Gold Jumps 4.1%, Silver 4.1%, to 7-Week High Dow Hits 24th Record of 2026 on Nvidia AMD Falls 9% Despite Beat Fed's Cook: "Prepared to Act" on a Hike Non-Farm Payrolls Fri
Markets
Wednesday Recap

Gold Breaks Out Above $4,200. Dow Hits a Record. AMD Falls 9%.

Three things happened at once Wednesday and only one made headlines. The Dow closed at its 24th record of the year on a Nvidia rally tied to Elon Musk's comment that SpaceX will buy its chips exclusively, while the S&P and Nasdaq slipped from intraday highs as AMD dropped 9% despite beating estimates. The real move was underneath: gold jumped 4.1% to a seven-week high above $4,200 an ounce and silver matched it, even as two Fed officials talked up a rate hike the same day. That combination — a hawkish Fed and a gold breakout — doesn't usually happen together.

By Lei Holdings Research
Wednesday, August 5, 2026 close · Prepared August 6, 2026 · Published every weekday morning — see the full archive
SPY$769.79−0.2% day
QQQ$717.30−0.9% day
SMH$569.70−1.0% day
GLD$389.64+4.1% day
SLV$56.07+4.1% day
USO$114.88−0.8% day
USD/JPY¥157.63−0.1% day, near 40-yr low
Trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange
The NYSE floor. The Dow closed at its 24th record of 2026 Wednesday, but the S&P and Nasdaq slipped from intraday highs as AI-stock volatility offset the gains. Photo: Carol M. Highsmith / Library of Congress, Wikimedia Commons, no known restrictions
01
AMD Fell 9% Despite Beating. Nvidia Carried the Dow.

SMH slipped 1.0% Wednesday, giving back a small piece of the prior two days' bounce. AMD's post-earnings drop despite a clean beat, next to Nvidia's Musk-driven rally, is the clearest sign this is a stock-picker's tape inside the chip trade, not a uniform re-rating.

AMD Q2 revenue
$11.5B, +50% YoY
AMD data center growth
+107%
AMD stock, post-earnings
−9%
Dow, Wednesday
24th record of 2026
What actually happened
A record quarter, a 9% drop anyway
AMD posted record Q2 revenue of $11.5B (+50% YoY) with data-center sales more than doubling and Q3 guidance above consensus. The stock still fell 9% — Seeking Alpha flags flat non-GAAP gross margin at 56% and a Helios AI ramp pushed into next year as the reasons the beat wasn't enough.
The other half of the chip trade
Nvidia rallied on a customer, not a number
Nvidia shares jumped after Elon Musk said SpaceX would buy its chips "exclusively," helping push the Dow to its 24th record close this year. SMH still slipped 1.0% on the day — AMD's drop outweighed Nvidia's gain across the ETF.
SMH · VanEck Semiconductor ETF
Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)
Close $569.70
Source: FMP EOD data
Peak $671.83 (Jun 22) → trough $504.22 (Jul 29), a 24.9% drawdown → Wednesday close $569.70, down 1.0% on the day but still up 13.0% off the trough. Sits roughly 4.4% below the 50-day average of $595.81. RSI eased to 49.7 and the MACD histogram stayed positive at 1.32 even as price pulled back — the bounce is cooling, not reversing.

The Trump administration is set to announce a 15% tariff and price floors on polysilicon imports as soon as Thursday, per Reuters — a China-focused measure on the raw material used in both solar panels and semiconductors that could raise input costs across the chip supply chain. AMD logoAMD Wall Street coverage stayed split: 41 buy ratings and no sells per 24/7 Wall St, against Seeking Alpha's "Hold" on valuation fatigue at a ~70x forward P/E.

Investment Thesis — curated valuations, fundamental thesis and technical analysis, generated for Lei Holdings Patreon members
From Lei Holdings Our latest investment thesis — curated valuations, fundamentals, and technicals on a name we think the market is mispricing — is up for members. Read it on Patreon →
02
Gold Broke Out Above $4,200. Oil Kept Sliding.

Gold jumped 4.1% Wednesday to a seven-week high, crossing above $4,200 an ounce on a softer dollar, cooling rate-hike odds after a soft ADP print, and continued progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Silver matched the move exactly. Oil kept falling, now down for a third straight session.

Stacked gold bullion bars
Gold crossed $4,200/oz Wednesday for the first time in seven weeks, with GLD up 4.1% on the day. Kitco called it a technical breakout; one fund manager cited debt and de-dollarization as the deeper driver. Photo: Wikimedia Commons
GLD · SPDR Gold Shares
Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)
Close $389.64
Source: FMP EOD data
Jumped 4.1% Wednesday to $389.64, its biggest one-day move since at least March and a fresh seven-week high. Closed decisively above its 50-day average of $383.03, which had capped every close for the prior week. RSI jumped to 60.1 and MACD histogram widened to +2.18 — a real technical breakout, not just a headline pop.
USO · United States Oil Fund
Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)
Close $114.88
Source: FMP EOD data
Fell 0.8% Wednesday to $114.88, a third straight down day and now off 5.9% since Monday's $122.12 close. Below its 50-day average of $121.80. RSI sits at 43.0 and MACD histogram is negative (−1.15) — the slide has technical confirmation, consistent with FXEmpire's note that WTI is testing the $75 level as Iran-Oman talks show progress.
Why gold broke out
ADP reported just 44k private-sector jobs created in July, well below expectations, cooling Fed rate-hike odds per Kitco
Progress toward a Hormuz reopening eased inflation-risk premium, per Benzinga, alongside a softer dollar
NUGT (2x gold miners) jumped 14.5% and AGQ (2x silver) jumped 9.4% — leveraged funds confirming a real move, not noise
Why it's not a straight line up
Fed Governor Lisa Cook said Wednesday she's "prepared to act" on a rate hike if inflation doesn't ease — a hawkish read that normally pressures gold
Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari has gone "full hawk," per InvestorPlace, ahead of Friday's payrolls
Kitco's own analysts note the breakout is a buy signal but don't expect a new record this year
USD/JPY
¥157.63
USD/JPY day
−0.1%
SLV day
+4.1%
GLD 14D RSI
60.1

The yen sits at ¥157.63, essentially flat and still near multi-decade lows despite last week's joint US-Japan intervention. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is reportedly weighing fewer than the current eight policy meetings a year, per CNBC — a move that would cut the Fed's communication with markets and, some worry, raise volatility right as Cook and Kashkari are talking up a hike.

03
What’s on the Calendar

Friday's jobs report is the week's single biggest volatility event — for gold, the yen, and whether Cook and Kashkari's hawkish talk gets validated or undercut.

Tue Aug 4
AMD
AMD earnings; JOLTS (Jun)
Record $11.5B revenue, +50% YoY — beat, but stock fell into Wednesday's session.
Wed Aug 5
—
ADP employment (44k, soft); Fed's Cook and Kashkari hawkish comments
Gold and silver jumped 4.1% each; Dow hit a record on Nvidia.
Thu Aug 6
—
Nonfarm productivity, unit labor costs (Q2); initial jobless claims; Fed's Musalem speech
Secondary labor-market read ahead of Friday's payrolls; polysilicon tariff announcement expected.
Fri Aug 7
NFP
Non-Farm Payrolls (Jul), unemployment; CFTC positioning (gold, JPY, S&P, crude) High vol
Est. +80k vs prior +57k, unemployment est. 4.2%. Biggest swing risk of the week for gold, rate-hike odds, and the yen.
Wed Aug 12
CPI
US CPI (Jul) High vol
Core YoY est. 2.5% vs 2.6% prior — the key print for whether Cook and Kashkari's hawkish case holds up.
Thu Aug 13
PPI
Producer Price Index (Jul); initial claims; Fed's Barkin speech
Est. −0.1% MoM — a second soft inflation read would cut against the hawkish Fed narrative.
Fri Aug 14
RETL
Retail Sales (Jul); Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Est. +0.5% MoM — a read on whether the consumer is still absorbing higher rates and tariff costs.
Flagged — unverified or single-sourced
  • No formal resolution to the US-Iran Hormuz standoff has been confirmed — FXEmpire describes Wednesday's oil move as a reaction to "progress" in Iran-Oman talks, not a signed deal.
  • CNBC's Jim Cramer-style commentary on Fed Chair Warsh's fewer-meetings idea is framed as speculation by CNBC itself — Warsh has floated it, but no formal FOMC schedule change has been announced.
04
Four Markets, One Story

Four desks — equities, commodities, rates, FX — are trading the same story from different angles.

01
A hawkish Fed and a gold breakout, same day
Cook and Kashkari both talked up a rate hike Wednesday, the setup that normally caps gold. Instead GLD jumped 4.1% on a soft ADP print and Hormuz progress — the labor and geopolitical signals outweighed the Fed rhetoric, for now.
02
One chipmaker's customer news moved the whole index
Nvidia's rally on Musk's SpaceX comment pushed the Dow to a record, while AMD's 9% post-earnings drop dragged SMH down 1.0%. Two single-stock stories, opposite signs, netting out to a small loss for the ETF.
03
Oil's slide is now technical, not just headline-driven
USO's third straight down day pushed RSI to 43 and MACD histogram negative — the Hormuz de-escalation trade has real chart weight behind it, unlike earlier moves that were pure headline reaction.
04
Friday's payrolls now carries double weight
A strong print validates Cook and Kashkari's hawkish case and could cap gold's breakout; a weak one — like Wednesday's soft ADP — extends it. The single number decides which read of this week's mixed signals holds.
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook
Lisa Cook
Governor, Federal Reserve
Said Wednesday she's "prepared to act" on a rate hike if inflation doesn't show signs of easing, a day after voting with the majority to hold rates steady. Photo: Federal Reserve / Wikimedia Commons, public domain.
05
Where This Leaves Positioning
SMH $545–555
Wednesday's pullback zone above the late-July air pocket. Holding here keeps the bounce intact; a break reopens the $504–530 zone from the late-July selloff.
SPY $769
Wednesday's close, now the level to hold. Wednesday's intraday high of $776.85 is the resistance a strong payrolls print would need to reclaim.
GLD $383
The 50-day average that capped gold for a week before Wednesday's breakout. Holding above it on any pullback confirms the move; a close back under negates it.
USO $110–112
The next chart support below Wednesday's close. A break opens the door toward June's $104 low; Iran-Oman headline risk cuts both ways here.
USD/JPY ¥155
Next support if the yen resumes weakening. A break lower raises the odds of a second round of intervention or faster BoJ action.
Payrolls beats, Fed validated
Cook and Kashkari's hawkish case holds
A strong Friday print alongside sticky CPI on Aug 12 would validate the hawkish comments from Cook and Kashkari, pressuring gold's breakout and giving the dollar a bid — the opposite of Wednesday's setup.
Read-through: GLD retests $383 support, USD/JPY firms, rate-hike odds rise into the September meeting.
Payrolls misses, ADP confirmed
The labor market is actually cooling
A soft NFP print consistent with Wednesday's weak ADP would undercut Cook and Kashkari's hike talk, extend gold and silver's breakout, and likely pressure the dollar and yields further.
Read-through: GLD extends above $400, rate-hike odds fall, risk assets get a tailwind into CPI.
Base case
A real gold breakout against a genuinely hawkish Fed — Friday's payrolls decides which force wins.

Equities: a split tape — Nvidia's rally on Musk's SpaceX comment offset AMD's 9% post-earnings drop, netting a small loss for SMH. Dow hit a record; S&P and Nasdaq slipped from highs. Watch whether the polysilicon tariff announcement adds fresh cost pressure to chipmakers.

Commodities: gold and silver's 4.1% jump is technically confirmed, not just a headline pop — RSI and MACD both moved with price. Oil's slide is now a third straight session with its own technical weight behind it.

FX & rates: the yen is flat near multi-decade lows. Fed Chair Warsh's floated cut to policy meetings, plus Cook and Kashkari's hawkish comments, point to a Fed trying to reduce its own predictability right as data turns mixed.

The wildcard: Friday's payrolls. A beat validates the hawkish Fed talk and likely caps gold; a miss — extending Wednesday's soft ADP — does the opposite. Nothing else on the calendar this week carries as much weight.

—
Sources
U.S. stocks mixed as tech wobbles offset Hormuz hopes — WSJ, Aug 5 2026 Strong earnings power Dow to another record — WSJ, Aug 5 2026 Dow hits record high as Nvidia rallies, S&P 500 slips from fresh peak — Invezz, Aug 5 2026 Nvidia stock rises after Musk says SpaceX will buy its chips exclusively — Investopedia, Aug 5 2026 AMD Q2 earnings beat estimates, strong data center aids revenue growth — Zacks, Aug 5 2026 The hidden red flag in AMD's record quarter — Seeking Alpha, Aug 5 2026 41 buy ratings and no sells: why Wall Street backs AMD — 24/7 Wall St, Aug 5 2026 Gold's rally has further to run as debt, de-dollarization fuel secular bull market — Kitco, Aug 5 2026 Gold rises today ahead of Hormuz deal, softer dollar — Benzinga, Aug 5 2026 Gold prices push above $4,200 as ADP says 44k jobs created in July — Kitco, Aug 5 2026 NUGT and AGQ jump big as gold and silver rally — 24/7 Wall St, Aug 5 2026 WTI oil tests the $75 level as Iran signals progress in talks — FXEmpire, Aug 5 2026 Fed Governor Cook says she's "prepared to act" on a rate hike — CNBC, Aug 5 2026 As Warsh and the Fed contemplate fewer meetings, markets brace for volatility — CNBC, Aug 5 2026 More traders predict a Fed hike. Don't bet on it — InvestorPlace, Aug 5 2026 Trump administration to impose 15% tariff in polysilicon probe meant to counter China — Reuters, Aug 5 2026 Price, RSI, and MACD data computed from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) EOD data, pulled Aug 6, 2026.
LeiHoldings
Research and commentary, not investment advice. Prices and dates were accurate as of publication (Aug 5, 2026 close) — verify before acting. The US-Iran Hormuz talks and Fed rate-hike commentary are ongoing developments, not confirmed outcomes; treat accordingly. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell.