This Week: Oil Jumps 2.1% on Hormuz Deal Doubts Dow Snaps Its Win Streak AMD Extends Rebound on Taalas Deal Trump Signs Polysilicon Tariff Order Non-Farm Payrolls Today

Markets

Thursday Recap

Oil Snaps a Three-Day Slide as Hormuz Doubts Return. Gold Holds Its Breakout.

Thursday undid part of Wednesday's story. Crude jumped 2.1% on renewed doubt over the Strait of Hormuz reopening — the same de-escalation trade that had pushed oil lower all week — and the Dow broke its winning streak as stocks slipped on the same headline. Gold held Wednesday's breakout almost exactly flat at $389.67, consolidating above its 50-day average rather than extending. The clearest split was inside chips: memory names SanDisk and Western Digital fell on soft guidance while Micron clawed back its losses, AMD kept climbing on a bolt-on AI acquisition, and Nvidia paused after a five-day, 12% run. Trump signed the polysilicon tariff order flagged in Wednesday's edition. Friday's payrolls report, due today, is still the week's decisive number.

By Lei Holdings Research

Thursday, August 6, 2026 close · Prepared August 7, 2026 · Published every weekday morning — see the full archive

SPY$768.56−0.2% day

QQQ$714.65−0.4% day

SMH$571.48+1.1% day

GLD$389.67+0.04% day

SLV$55.85−0.4% day

USO$118.87+2.1% day

USD/JPY¥158.40+0.5% day, near 40-yr low

An oil tanker at sea — Crude jumped 2.1% Thursday, snapping a three-day slide, as doubts resurfaced over the Strait of Hormuz reopening that had been pressuring oil all week. Photo: Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0

Memory Chips Sold Off. AMD Didn't.

SMH gained 1.1% Thursday even as the chip trade fractured into three separate stories: memory names SanDisk and Western Digital fell on soft guidance, AMD extended its post-earnings rebound on a bolt-on AI deal, and Nvidia paused after a five-session, 12% run.

SMH, Thursday

+1.1%

AMD price targets, post-earnings

$465–$700

Nvidia, 5-session run

+12%

Nvidia, Thursday

−0.7%

The weak link

Soft guidance hit the memory names, not the ETF

SanDisk and Western Digital fell Thursday on soft guidance, per WSJ, while Micron clawed back its own intraday losses to buck the selloff. The memory-chip boom that has carried Micron over 700% in a year is showing its first real guidance-driven cracks.

The strong link

AMD bought an AI-inference chip startup

AMD agreed to acquire Taalas, which builds chips hardwired for a single AI model, deepening its inference bet two days after its post-earnings drop. A wave of price-target hikes to $465–$700 followed, and the stock kept climbing Thursday.

SMH · VanEck Semiconductor ETF

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $571.48
Source: FMP EOD data

Peak $671.83 (Jun 22) → trough $504.22 (Jul 29), a 24.9% drawdown → Thursday close $571.48, up 1.1% on the day and 13.3% off the trough. Still roughly 4.0% below the 50-day average of $595.20. RSI held near 50.2 and the MACD histogram widened to +2.62 from +1.32 the day before — the bounce is stabilizing, not just cooling.

SanDisk and Western Digital fell Thursday on soft guidance; Micron erased its own intraday losses to buck the memory-chip selloff, per MarketWatch.

Trump signed the polysilicon proclamation flagged in Wednesday's edition — a confirmed 15% tariff and minimum import price on the raw material used in both solar panels and semiconductors, per WSJ and Reuters, though a separate Reuters report says the administration is likely to reject industry requests for a faster timeline. AMD Seeking Alpha now frames AMD's AI story as "entering a new phase," citing data-center revenue at 58% of sales and Helios platform commitments from Anthropic, Microsoft, Meta, and OpenAI.

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Oil Snapped Back. Gold Held Its Ground.

Crude jumped 2.1% Thursday, its first up day in four sessions, as doubts resurfaced over the Strait of Hormuz reopening that had been driving the week's de-escalation trade. Gold barely moved, up just 0.04% — holding Wednesday's breakout rather than extending it. Silver gave back some of its own jump, down 0.4%.

USO · United States Oil Fund

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $118.87
Source: FMP EOD data

Jumped 2.1% Thursday to $118.87, snapping a three-day, 5.9% slide from Monday's $122.12 close. Still below its 50-day average of $121.44. RSI recovered to 47.0 from 43.0 but MACD histogram widened slightly more negative to −1.20 — the bounce hasn't flipped the technical picture yet, consistent with a headline-driven reversal rather than a trend change.

GLD · SPDR Gold Shares

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $389.67
Source: FMP EOD data

Essentially flat Thursday at $389.67 (+0.04%), holding almost exactly at Wednesday's breakout level. Sits 1.9% above its 50-day average of $382.54, which now marks support rather than resistance. RSI held at 60.1 and the MACD line turned positive for the first time (+0.04), histogram widening to +2.72 — consolidation, not distribution.

Why oil turned

WSJ: "U.S. Stocks Down on Hormuz Deal Doubts" — the same reopening trade that pressured oil lower all week reversed on renewed skepticism

The Dow broke its winning streak Thursday as the same doubts weighed on equities broadly, per WSJ's markets wrap

USO remains below its 50-day average even after the bounce — the multi-week downtrend isn't reversed yet

Why gold isn't giving anything back

GLD held flat rather than pulling back — no give-up of Wednesday's breakout even as the hawkish Fed narrative persisted

The 50-day average at $382.54 now sits below Thursday's close, converting former resistance into a support level

MACD's first positive cross since the pullback began suggests the breakout has near-term technical follow-through

USD/JPY

¥158.40

USD/JPY day

+0.5%

SLV day

−0.4%

GLD 14D RSI

60.1

The yen weakened further to ¥158.40, extending toward its 52-week low of ¥163.98 despite last week's joint US-Japan intervention. CNBC reported Thursday that Trump has spoken repeatedly with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh — a sharp break from his relationship with predecessor Jerome Powell — while former Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig said on CNBC that a Fed chair signaling moves so directly "adds confusion" for markets.

What’s on the Calendar

Today's jobs report is the week's single biggest volatility event — for oil's bounce, gold's breakout, and whether the Hormuz doubts that moved markets Thursday get confirmed or reversed.

Wed Aug 5

—

ADP employment (44k, soft); Fed's Cook and Kashkari hawkish comments

Gold and silver jumped 4.1% each; Dow hit a record on Nvidia.

Thu Aug 6

AMD

Trump signs polysilicon tariff order; AMD-Taalas deal; Challenger layoffs (Jul)

Oil jumped 2.1% on Hormuz doubts; Dow broke its win streak; July layoffs at a 2-year low despite AI-driven job cuts.

Fri Aug 7

NFP

Non-Farm Payrolls (Jul), unemployment; CFTC positioning (gold, JPY, S&P, crude) High vol

Est. +80k vs prior +57k, unemployment est. 4.2%. Today's release — the week's biggest swing risk for gold, rate-hike odds, and the yen.

Wed Aug 12

CPI

US CPI (Jul) High vol

Core YoY est. 2.5% vs 2.6% prior — the key print for whether Cook and Kashkari's hawkish case holds up.

Thu Aug 13

PPI

Producer Price Index (Jul); initial claims; Fed's Barkin speech

Est. −0.1% MoM — a second soft inflation read would cut against the hawkish Fed narrative.

Fri Aug 14

RETL

Retail Sales (Jul); Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Est. +0.5% MoM — a read on whether the consumer is still absorbing higher rates and tariff costs.

Flagged — unverified or single-sourced

No formal resolution to the US-Iran Hormuz standoff has been confirmed either way — Thursday's oil jump reflects renewed doubt about a deal, not a broken one; treat both directions as headline-driven until confirmed.
Reuters reports the Trump administration is "likely to reject" industry requests for a faster polysilicon-tariff timeline, but the order itself is now signed and confirmed, not speculative.

Single-Name Movers Worth a Second Look

Six recognizable names moved enough Thursday to trip our mover-scanner. We checked each against real reporting before including it here — two had no real catalyst behind the move at all.

Thu Aug 6

NTDOY

Nintendo — ADR +2.6% (Tokyo primary listing moved far more)

Real catalyst: Q1 operating profit +150.5% and net profit +54%, both beating estimates, boosted by a US tariff refund (Reuters, WSJ, Guardian). Our scanner's raw feed flagged a much larger intraday pop — that's the thin-volume US ADR lagging the primary Tokyo listing on a big earnings day, not a data error.

Thu Aug 6

DIS

Disney +2.1%

Real catalyst: fiscal Q3 beat Wednesday — 7% revenue growth, 21% operating income growth, Experiences and Entertainment both strong. Seeking Alpha still rates it neutral on valuation despite the print.

Thu Aug 6

UBER

Uber +2.7%

Real catalyst: second-day earnings bounce — shares fell 5%+ after Tuesday's Q2 print, then stabilized as BofA trimmed its price target to $101 but kept a Buy, and Ackman's Pershing Square reiterated the stock as a top holding.

Thu Aug 6

SONY

Sony +1.0% Thursday, +10.9% for the week

Real catalyst: Jefferies calling 2026 "Sony's year to shine" on the GTA 6 tailwind, plus its own Q1 beat and a new TSMC sensor venture — a week-long rally, not a single-day pop.

Thu Aug 6

MSFT

Microsoft +2.3% Unexplained

No credible single catalyst found. The only MSFT-specific headlines Thursday were class-action law-firm investor-alert press releases — routine ambulance-chasing after any drawdown, not a price driver. Filing this under real, unexplained strength.

Thu Aug 6

AMC

AMC −3.0% Unexplained

The one same-day AMC story (Zacks, on improving free cash flow) reads positive — it doesn't explain a decline. No credible negative catalyst found; filing this as real, unexplained weakness.

How this list is built

Source: an internal mover-scanner (tofu-agent) flags recognizable names with same-day price moves and a confidence score; every name above scored low-to-moderate (0.22–0.36) on that scanner alone, meaning it found a move but not a strong causal story — that's why each was individually checked against real reporting before appearing here rather than run as-is.
The scanner's own headline match for MSFT (a law-firm PR) and for AMC (a cash-flow piece reading the wrong direction) were both discarded as non-explanatory. Two of six mover flags surviving with a real catalyst attached is a normal hit rate for this kind of scan, not a sign of the four verified ones being cherry-picked.

Four Markets, One Story

Four desks — equities, commodities, rates, FX — are trading the same story from different angles.

The same Hormuz trade reversed both oil and stocks

Wednesday's "progress" on Hormuz reopening had pushed oil down and helped stocks higher. Thursday's doubts about that same deal flipped both: oil jumped 2.1%, and the Dow broke its winning streak on the reversal.

The chip trade is now three separate stories, not one

Memory names fell on guidance, AMD rose on dealmaking, Nvidia paused on valuation after its rally — SMH's 1.1% gain nets out three uncorrelated moves rather than a single semis re-rating.

Gold's breakout survived a day without a fresh catalyst

No new dovish data or geopolitical trigger hit Thursday, yet GLD held flat rather than pulling back toward its 50-day average — a sign the Wednesday move wasn't purely a headline spike.

Today's payrolls still decides the Fed argument

Cook and Kashkari's hawkish case from Wednesday is unresolved either way — Thursday brought no new labor data. A strong NFP validates the hike talk; a weak one, alongside Wednesday's soft ADP, undercuts it.

Kevin Warsh

Chair, Federal Reserve

CNBC reported Thursday that Trump has spoken with Warsh repeatedly since his May swearing-in, a sharp break from the hostile Trump-Powell relationship — raising independence questions just as Cook and Kashkari talk up a hike. Photo: Federal Reserve / Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

Where This Leaves Positioning

SMH $595

The 50-day average, still capping the bounce from above. A close through it would be the first real reclaim since the late-July selloff; $545–555 is support beneath Thursday's close.

SPY $768

Thursday's close, now the level to hold. A strong payrolls print would need to reclaim Wednesday's $776.85 intraday high to change the tape.

GLD $382–383

The 50-day average, now acting as support beneath Thursday's flat close. Holding above it on any pullback confirms Wednesday's breakout; a close back under negates it.

USO $121

The 50-day average, still overhead after Thursday's bounce. Reclaiming it would suggest the Hormuz-doubt rally has legs; failing here reopens the slide toward June's $104 low.

USD/JPY ¥160

The next round-number level if the yen keeps weakening toward its ¥163.98 year high. A break raises the odds of a second round of intervention.

Payrolls beats, Fed validated

Cook and Kashkari's hawkish case holds

A strong Friday print alongside sticky CPI on Aug 12 would validate the hawkish comments from Cook and Kashkari, pressuring gold's breakout and giving the dollar a bid — the opposite of Wednesday's setup.

Read-through: GLD retests $382 support, USD/JPY firms, rate-hike odds rise into the September meeting.

Payrolls misses, ADP confirmed

The labor market is actually cooling

A soft NFP print consistent with Wednesday's weak ADP would undercut Cook and Kashkari's hike talk, extend gold's breakout, and likely pressure the dollar and yields further.

Read-through: GLD extends above $400, rate-hike odds fall, risk assets get a tailwind into CPI.

Base case

Thursday paused the story more than it changed it — today's payrolls is still the decisive number.

Equities: the chip trade split three ways — memory names fell on guidance, AMD rose on the Taalas deal, Nvidia paused after its rally — netting SMH a 1.1% gain. Dow broke its win streak on renewed Hormuz doubts.

Commodities: oil's 2.1% jump reversed the Hormuz-progress trade that had driven its three-day slide, but stays below its 50-day average. Gold held Wednesday's breakout flat rather than extending or fading it — a consolidation, not a reversal.

FX & rates: the yen weakened further toward its year high near ¥164. CNBC's reporting on Trump's closeness with Fed Chair Warsh, plus a former KC Fed president's comment that Fed signaling "adds confusion," keeps Fed-independence questions live alongside Cook and Kashkari's hawkish talk.

The wildcard: today's payrolls. A beat validates the hawkish Fed talk and likely caps gold's consolidation; a miss — extending Wednesday's soft ADP — reopens the breakout. Nothing else on the calendar carries as much weight.

—

Sources

U.S. stocks down on Hormuz deal doubts — WSJ, Aug 6 2026 Shares of memory giants drop on soft guidance — WSJ, Aug 6 2026 Micron's stock claws back to buck the memory-chip selloff — MarketWatch, Aug 6 2026 AMD deepens AI inference bet with Taalas deal as chip race heats up — Reuters, Aug 6 2026 AMD buys chip startup that hardwires AI models into its silicon — CNBC, Aug 6 2026 AMD stock is rising: what's happening? — Benzinga, Aug 6 2026 AMD's AI story has quietly entered a new phase — Seeking Alpha, Aug 6 2026 Nvidia stock slips after five-day rally: what's going on? — Invezz, Aug 6 2026 Trump issues tariffs on key ingredient for electronics and solar panels — NYT, Aug 6 2026 Trump signs executive order to protect US polysilicon industry — Reuters, Aug 6 2026 Trump likely to reject US industry requests for quicker polysilicon tariff — Reuters, Aug 6 2026 Trump treats Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh as an ally. That creates economic risks — CNBC, Aug 6 2026 July layoffs drop to lowest level in 2 years, Challenger says — Fox Business, Aug 6 2026 The last time value stocks beat growth by this much was 2022 — MarketWatch, Aug 6 2026 Nintendo Q1 operating profit jumps 151%, beating estimates — Reuters, Aug 6 2026 Trump tariffs refund ignites profit spike at Nintendo — The Guardian, Aug 6 2026 Disney: The turnaround is real, but I am not buying — Seeking Alpha, Aug 6 2026 Uber price target lowered by Bank of America despite higher earnings outlook — Proactive Investors, Aug 6 2026 Sony stock gains 10.9% in a week — Zacks, Aug 5 2026 Price, RSI, and MACD data computed from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) EOD data, pulled Aug 7, 2026.