This Week: Iran's New Transit Demands Cloud Hormuz Reopening BofA: Sentiment Gauge Nears 2021-Euphoria Levels CPI Wed, PPI Thu, Retail Sales Fri CoreWeave, Cisco, Applied Materials Report SPY, QQQ at Records After Friday's Jobs Miss

Markets

Week Ahead

Records Meet a Euphoria Warning as Iran Uncertainty Drags Into CPI Week.

Stocks enter Monday just off Friday's records, still digesting a jobs miss that gutted rate-hike odds, while the weekend added two complications: Iran issued fresh transit demands that cloud any near-term Hormuz reopening, and Bank of America warned its sentiment gauge is approaching euphoria levels last seen in 2021. Neither is new information the market hasn't priced before, but both raise the stakes for a week stacked with July CPI (Wed), PPI (Thu), retail sales (Fri), and earnings from CoreWeave, Cisco, and Applied Materials. Friday's close still stands: SPY and QQQ at records, gold and silver up 7.3% and 9.8% on the week, SMH up 7.8% off its late-July trough.

By Lei Holdings Research

Friday, August 7, 2026 close · Prepared Monday, August 10, 2026 · Published every weekday morning — see the full archive

SPY$773.26Fri close, record

QQQ$723.03Fri close, record

SMH$582.70+7.8% wk

GLD$398.47+7.3% wk

SLV$57.50+9.8% wk

USO$117.98−8.7% wk

USD/JPY¥157.76Fri close

Wall Street street sign in New York City — A shockingly weak jobs report reset the entire week's narrative Friday, sending the S&P and Nasdaq to fresh records. Photo: Wikimedia Commons.

Nvidia's Best Week in Over a Year. Airbnb's Best Day Ever.

SMH gained 2.0% Friday as Nvidia posted its largest weekly market-cap gain in more than a year on an SpaceX chip commitment. But the day's single biggest mover wasn't a chip stock — Airbnb jumped 17% on an AI-powered earnings beat, and Palantir capped its best week since 2024.

SMH, Friday

+2.0%

Nvidia, Friday

+2.3%

Palantir, Friday

+10.3%

Airbnb, Friday

+17.4%

What actually happened

Nvidia's biggest weekly gain in over a year

MarketWatch: Nvidia logged its largest-ever weekly increase in market capitalization, up roughly 10% on the week. Elon Musk said SpaceX will use Nvidia chips exclusively, and a broader rally hit AI "pick-and-shovel" names — photonics and optics suppliers — the same day.

The day's biggest mover

Airbnb: AI-native and proving it

Airbnb's stock surged as much as 17% after one of its strongest growth quarters in years — bookings, margins, and guidance all beat. CEO Brian Chesky credited AI directly and said he'll spend "a lot more" on it; Wedbush upgraded to Outperform with a $200 target.

SMH · VanEck Semiconductor ETF

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $582.70
Source: FMP EOD data

Peak $668.91 (Jun 22) → trough $504.22 (Jul 29), a 24.6% drawdown → Friday close $582.70, up 2.0% on the day and 15.6% off the trough. Still about 2.1% below the 50-day average of $594.94, but RSI climbed to 52.9 and the MACD histogram widened to +4.13 — the clearest bullish reading since the late-July selloff.

Four of Friday's biggest AI-earnings winners — full breakdown of these and two more (including one flagged as genuinely unexplained) in Market Movers below.

Oracle rose on Microsoft's earnings read-through and a new Google partnership, per The Motley Fool — though UBS cut its price target to $245 from $285 the same day, citing AI-spending and OpenAI-exposure risk, even as it kept a Buy rating. That split — real revenue growth against rising skepticism about the returns on it — is becoming the defining tension of this earnings season.

Investment Thesis — curated valuations, fundamental thesis and technical analysis, generated for Lei Holdings Patreon members

From Lei Holdings Our latest investment thesis — curated valuations, fundamentals, and technicals on a name we think the market is mispricing — is up for members. Read it on Patreon →

Gold's Best Week of the Year. Oil Gave Back Its Bounce.

Gold jumped 2.3% Friday and silver 3.0%, capping their best week since the start of the year on falling Treasury yields and a softer dollar after the payrolls miss. Oil slipped 0.8%, erasing most of Thursday's Hormuz-doubt bounce and closing the week down 8.7%.

GLD · SPDR Gold Shares

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $398.47
Source: FMP EOD data

Up 2.3% Friday to $398.47, capping a 7.3% week — the best since the start of the year, per Kitco. Now 4.2% above its 50-day average of $382.34. RSI jumped to 65.3 and the MACD histogram widened to +3.50, both confirming the breakout technically rather than just on headlines.

USO · United States Oil Fund

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $117.98
Source: FMP EOD data

Fell 0.8% Friday to $117.98, giving back most of Thursday's Hormuz-doubt bounce and closing the week down 8.7% from $129.17. Sits 2.6% below its 50-day average of $121.17; RSI eased to 46.2 and the MACD histogram stayed negative at −1.24 — the multi-week downtrend is intact.

Why gold and silver broke out

July payrolls missed badly — Kitco: gold and silver rallied "as weak payrolls cut Fed hike pressure," pulling Treasury yields lower and softening the dollar

Kitco separately reports gold's "biggest headwind" — rising real-yield expectations — "may finally be peaking"

CNBC: gold options traders spent $180M on bullish call positions the same day, betting the "all clear" holds

Why oil couldn't hold Thursday's bounce

No fresh Hormuz headline Friday — the doubt that drove Thursday's 2.1% jump didn't get a new catalyst to extend it

USO closed the week down 8.7%, its worst week since the late-July selloff, and remains below its 50-day average

A weaker dollar (from the payrolls miss) normally supports oil — it wasn't enough to offset the fading war-premium trade

USD/JPY

¥157.76

USD/JPY day

−0.4%

GLD week

+7.3%

SLV week

+9.8%

The yen firmed slightly to ¥157.76 as the dollar broadly weakened on the jobs miss — a rare down day for USD/JPY this month. Fed drama escalated the same afternoon: Trump revived his effort to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook over mortgage-fraud allegations, a fight the Supreme Court had already let proceed once. Economist Mohamed El-Erian called the move "puzzling" given markets barely reacted.

What’s on the Calendar

Friday's payrolls miss was last week's decisive number. This week hands the market three inflation prints and three AI-adjacent earnings reports to either confirm or complicate the dovish read — with Iran's weekend transit demands keeping oil's geopolitical premium unresolved underneath it all.

Thu Aug 6

AMD

Trump signs polysilicon tariff order; AMD-Taalas deal; Challenger layoffs (Jul)

Oil jumped 2.1% on Hormuz doubts; Dow broke its win streak; July layoffs at a 2-year low despite AI-driven job cuts.

Fri Aug 7

NFP

Non-Farm Payrolls (Jul): −23K vs +80K est. (prior +20K); unemployment 4.1% vs 4.2% est. High vol

The first negative payrolls print this cycle. S&P and Nasdaq closed at records anyway, best week since April, as rate-hike odds collapsed.

Mon Aug 10

—

Iran issues new Hormuz transit demands; Saudi Aramco extinguishes refinery fire

MarketWatch: futures were little-changed Sunday as fresh Iranian conditions on Strait of Hormuz transit dimmed hopes for a near-term reopening. Separately, Aramco put out a fire at its Jazan refinery after Houthi forces claimed a drone strike, per CNBC — no confirmed production impact.

Tue Aug 11

CRWV

CoreWeave earnings; est. EPS −$1.21, revenue $2.55B

First of the week's three AI-capex-adjacent prints — a read on whether GPU-cloud demand is holding up under the same spending-return scrutiny that hit Oracle's price target Friday.

Wed Aug 12

CPI

US CPI (Jul); Cisco earnings High vol

Core YoY est. 2.5% vs 2.6% prior. Now the swing print for the September Fed meeting after Friday's weak jobs data raised rate-cut odds. Cisco reports the same day (est. EPS $1.17).

Thu Aug 13

PPI

Producer Price Index (Jul); initial claims; Fed's Barkin speech; Applied Materials earnings

Core PPI MoM est. +0.2% — a hot print would cut against Friday's dovish read. Applied Materials (est. EPS $3.39) is the week's direct semi-equipment read-through for SMH.

Fri Aug 14

RETL

Retail Sales (Jul) High vol; Michigan Consumer Sentiment

A read on whether consumer spending is holding up as the labor market visibly cools — closes out the week's data gauntlet.

Flagged — unverified or single-sourced

No formal resolution to the US-Iran Hormuz standoff has been confirmed either way — Iran's weekend transit demands are the latest data point, not a final outcome; treat oil's headline-driven swings as unresolved rather than evidence of a deal or its collapse.
Trump's renewed effort to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook is a live legal and political fight, not a settled outcome — the Supreme Court previously let a similar attempt proceed, but Cook remains in her role as of Friday's close.

Single-Name Movers Worth a Second Look

Seven recognizable names moved enough Friday to trip our mover-scanner. Every one checked out — a real, verifiable catalyst behind each move, a better hit rate than usual for this kind of scan.

Fri Aug 7

ABNB

Airbnb +17.4%

Real catalyst: one of its strongest growth quarters in years — bookings, margins, and full-year guidance all beat. Chesky's AI-native pitch and Wedbush's Outperform upgrade ($200 target) added fuel. New 52-week high.

Fri Aug 7

PLTR

Palantir +10.3%

Real catalyst: Bank of America turned upbeat after Palantir's strong Q2 print, per Motley Fool — capping the stock's best week since 2024, per MarketWatch, and easing the "AI loser" label some had put on it.

Fri Aug 7

MRNA

Moderna +9.9%

Real catalyst: Q2 earnings call highlighted cost cuts and pipeline milestones, per Zacks — enough to reverse Wednesday and Thursday's combined 9% decline in a single session.

Fri Aug 7

UBER

Uber +6.5%

Real catalyst: continuation of its post-earnings recovery (see Thursday's edition) amplified by the market-wide rally — no new Uber-specific news Friday, but the broad NFP-driven risk-on move disproportionately lifted names already in rebound mode.

Fri Aug 7

ORCL

Oracle +2.4%

Real catalyst: Microsoft's earnings and a new Oracle-Google partnership, per Motley Fool. Same-day UBS price-target cut ($285→$245) on AI-spending risk didn't stop the rally — a split verdict, not a clean bullish story.

Fri Aug 7

NVDA

Nvidia +2.3%

Real catalyst: SpaceX committing to Nvidia chips exclusively, per GuruFocus, layered onto its largest-ever weekly market-cap gain — see Equities above for the full week's context.

Fri Aug 7

CMG

Chipotle −2.7%

Real catalyst: the CDC linked a multistate Salmonella outbreak to jalapeños served at Chipotle and other chains, per Barrons — extending a slide that's now down over 13% on the week, per Benzinga. The scanner's own discourse match (a Disney revenue-comparison piece) was unrelated noise; the actual catalyst is the outbreak coverage.

How this list is built

Source: an internal mover-scanner (tofu-agent) flags recognizable names with same-day price moves and a confidence score; today's batch scored 0.19–0.32. Every figure was re-derived from actual close-to-close prices (the scanner's raw numbers, verified, all matched within rounding) rather than trusted as reported, and every catalyst was checked against real news before inclusion — including CMG, which the scanner tagged "unexplained_move" but which had a clear, findable cause.
Compare to Thursday's batch, where two of six names (MSFT, AMC) had no real catalyst and were flagged "Unexplained." Today's 7-for-7 hit rate is the exception, not the baseline — don't read a clean batch as evidence this step can be skipped.

Four Markets, One Story

Four desks — equities, commodities, rates, FX — are trading the same story from different angles.

One number flipped the entire week's narrative

Wednesday and Thursday's Hormuz-headline whipsaw is now secondary. Friday's payrolls miss (−23K vs +80K est.) did more to markets in one release than three days of oil-headline trading — records in equities, a breakout in gold, all from a single data point.

Stocks read the miss as dovish, not recessionary

A weak jobs report should worry equity investors about growth. Instead SPY and QQQ hit records — the market is pricing "bad news, but the Fed cuts" over "bad news means a slowdown." That read is untested until the next data point confirms or breaks it.

Gold's breakout now has technical confirmation, not just headlines

RSI at 65.3 and a widening MACD histogram mean Friday's move isn't just a one-day headline spike — the indicators that stayed neutral through Wednesday's initial breakout have now turned decisively bullish.

The Fed-independence fight picked the worst possible week

Trump reviving the effort to fire Governor Cook lands the same afternoon markets are pricing a September cut off weak data — any successful removal effort would inject exactly the kind of policy uncertainty this rally is currently ignoring.

Records now carry a euphoria warning attached

Bank of America's sentiment gauge is nearing 2021 extremes the same week the Crestmont P/E sits at a 140-year-series high, per Seeking Alpha. None of that stopped Friday's rally, but it raises the bar for what CPI and this week's earnings need to deliver to justify current levels.

Kevin Warsh

Chair, Federal Reserve

Friday's weak payrolls print lands directly in Warsh's lap ahead of September's meeting, the same afternoon Trump revived his bid to remove Governor Cook — two separate threads to the same question of Fed independence under this chair. Photo: Federal Reserve / Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

Where This Leaves Positioning

SPY $773

Friday's record close. Holding above it into next week confirms the "bad news is good news" read; a fast reversal back below would suggest the rally overshot the actual data.

SMH $595

The 50-day average, still capping the bounce from above despite Friday's strength. A close through it is the first real reclaim since the late-July selloff.

GLD $382

The 50-day average, now well below Friday's close and acting as first support. A pullback that holds above it keeps the breakout intact; $398–400 is the level to watch for continuation.

USO $115–117

The zone oil has repeatedly found support in through the week's whipsaw. A close below reopens the slide toward June's low; the 50-day average at $121 caps it from above.

USD/JPY ¥160

The next round-number level if dollar weakness from the jobs miss proves temporary and the yen resumes its slide toward its ¥163.98 year high.

The miss gets revised away

One weak month, not a trend

A single negative payrolls print can reflect noise, not a turn — August's report could show a bounce-back, and CPI on Aug 12 running hot would complicate the dovish read on a market BofA already calls stretched.

Read-through: gold's breakout stalls near $400, equities give back part of Friday's gain, rate-cut odds pare back into September.

The labor market really is cooling

Friday was the first data point of a trend

If PPI on Aug 13 and CPI on Aug 12 confirm softening alongside Friday's jobs miss, the case for a September cut strengthens further, extending both the equity rally and gold's breakout.

Read-through: GLD extends through $400, SPY grinds to new records, USD/JPY stays soft.

Base case

Friday's data rewrote the week — this week's CPI, PPI, and earnings decide whether it holds.

Equities: SPY and QQQ closed Friday at records on falling rate-hike odds, capping their best week since April. Nvidia's largest weekly market-cap gain in over a year and AI-earnings beats (Airbnb, Palantir) did the rest of the work underneath the index — but BofA's euphoria warning and a record-high Crestmont P/E mean this week's CoreWeave, Cisco, and Applied Materials reports carry more weight than usual.

Commodities: gold and silver had their best week of the year — up 7.3% and 9.8% — with RSI and MACD both confirming the move technically. Oil closed down 8.7% on the week, and Iran's weekend transit demands mean the Hormuz risk premium stays unresolved into Monday rather than settled either way.

FX & rates: the dollar broadly weakened on Friday's jobs miss, pulling USD/JPY down slightly; Asian currencies firmed further over the weekend on the same reduced-rate-hike read. Trump's revived effort to remove Fed Governor Cook keeps independence questions live under Chair Warsh heading into September.

The wildcard: whether Friday's payrolls miss was a real trend or a single noisy month. CPI on Aug 12 and PPI on Aug 13 are the next chances to confirm it — a hot print would force a fast repricing of everything that moved Friday, and would land on a market BofA already flags as stretched.

—

Sources

U.S. stocks rise as rate-hike odds fall on weak jobs report — WSJ, Aug 7 2026 U.S. stocks notch fresh record after jobs report eases rate-hike fears — WSJ, Aug 7 2026 Markets rally on surprise U.S. job losses — WSJ, Aug 7 2026 Gold, silver rally as weak payrolls cut Fed hike pressure — Kitco, Aug 7 2026 Gold breaks out following soft jobs data — Kitco, Aug 7 2026 Gold's biggest headwind may finally be peaking — Kitco, Aug 7 2026 Gold bugs spend $180 million betting all's clear for metal — CNBC, Aug 7 2026 Two reasons why Nvidia's stock saw its biggest weekly surge in more than a year — MarketWatch, Aug 7 2026 Palantir's stock stages best week since 2024 — MarketWatch, Aug 7 2026 Chesky says Airbnb will spend "a lot more" on AI as earnings beat, stock surges 15% — CNBC, Aug 7 2026 Nvidia stock rises 2.2% as SpaceX commits to its chips — GuruFocus, Aug 7 2026 Oracle surges: what's driving the sudden rally — The Motley Fool, Aug 7 2026 Oracle price target lowered by UBS amid AI spending concerns — Proactive Investors, Aug 7 2026 Trump revives bid to fire Fed Gov. Lisa Cook — New York Post, Aug 7 2026 U.S. stock futures flat as investors await inflation data, grapple with more Iran uncertainty — MarketWatch, Aug 9 2026 Saudi Aramco extinguishes fire at refinery as Houthis claim responsibility — CNBC, Aug 9 2026 Market euphoria has gone too far, banking giant warns — Finbold (BofA), Aug 9 2026 Banks: The Overlooked Beneficiary Of The AI Capital Cycle — Seeking Alpha, Aug 9 2026 Chipotle stock extends slide after CDC links salmonella outbreak to jalapeños — Barrons, Aug 6 2026 What's behind the Chipotle stock selloff after Minnesota salmonella link — Benzinga, Aug 7 2026 Price, RSI, and MACD data computed from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) EOD data, pulled Aug 10, 2026 (last close: Fri Aug 7). Economic-calendar and earnings-calendar data — FMP.