This Week: Oil Jumps 3% as Iran Hardens Hormuz Demands Chip Stocks Slide; Intel Falls on $15B Share Sale CPI Wednesday, PPI Thursday, Retail Sales Friday CoreWeave Reports Today; Cisco, Applied Materials Later This Week SPY, QQQ Roughly Flat Monday, Still Near Records

Markets

Week Ahead

Oil Snaps Back as Hormuz Hopes Fade Again, Chip Stocks Slide Into CPI Eve.

Monday undid a slice of Friday's calm: Iran hardened its Strait of Hormuz conditions, oil jumped 3% and USO is now up 6.7% since Friday's close, and chip stocks slid on Intel's surprise $15 billion share sale layered onto Nvidia's Wall Street financing headlines. SPY and QQQ barely moved on net — down 0.03% and 0.30% — but SMH fell 2.3% and gold pushed to a fresh RSI high above 67. Wednesday's CPI print now carries the week, with prediction markets leaning toward a tame read.

By Lei Holdings Research

Monday, August 10, 2026 close · Prepared Tuesday, August 11, 2026 · Published every weekday morning — see the full archive

SPY$773.03−0.03% Mon

QQQ$720.87−0.30% Mon

SMH$569.41−2.3% Mon

GLD$402.54+1.0% Mon

SLV$59.41+3.3% Mon

USO$125.92+6.7% since Fri

USD/JPY¥159.17Mon close

Crude oil tanker at anchor — Iran's hardened Strait of Hormuz conditions sent oil up 3% Monday, dragging USO to a two-day gain of nearly 7% and reviving the inflation-premium trade a day before CPI. Photo: Wikimedia Commons.

Chips Slide on Intel's Share Sale. The Market Barely Blinked.

SMH fell 2.3% Monday as Nvidia dropped 2.9% and Intel sank on a surprise $15 billion share sale to fund its foundry buildout. The S&P and Nasdaq barely noticed — SPY and QQQ closed within a third of a percent of flat, extending a pattern where chip-sector selloffs no longer drag the broader index.

SMH, Monday

−2.3%

Nvidia, Monday

−2.9%

SPY, Monday

−0.03%

Dow, Monday

−0.11%

What actually happened

Intel's $15B raise spooked the sector

Intel announced a $15 billion share sale to fund its chip-manufacturing expansion, and shares fell over 4% in early trading, per multiple reports. Nvidia separately dropped 2.9% to $217.54 even as it confirmed a $500 billion AI-infrastructure financing push with Apollo, Blackstone, and BlackRock, per CNBC and WSJ — a sell-the-news reaction, not a demand concern.

Why it didn't spread

The S&P has stopped following chips down

Seeking Alpha flagged this directly Monday: semiconductor selloffs "stopped dragging the S&P 500 this year." Earnings breadth is broadening beyond the Magnificent Seven, per MarketWatch, giving the index other legs to stand on when AI names wobble.

SMH · VanEck Semiconductor ETF

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $569.41
Source: FMP EOD data

Peak $668.91 (Jun 22) → trough $504.22 (Jul 29), a 24.6% drawdown → Monday close $569.41, down 2.3% on the day but still 12.9% above the trough. Now 4.2% below the 50-day average of $594.33; RSI eased to 49.5 and the MACD histogram narrowed slightly to +4.12 — the recovery is intact but stalled, not reversed.

Monday's four most-discussed single names — two chip stocks that slid, two software names that didn't. Full verification of each move in Market Movers below.

CoreWeave reports after Tuesday's close (est. EPS −$1.21), the first of three AI-capex-adjacent prints this week alongside Cisco and Applied Materials. Nvidia itself doesn't report until Aug 26, but BofA is already calling for a "multi-quarter upgrade cycle," per Proactive Investors, projecting a $3–4 billion beat above the company's own $91 billion guidance.

Investment Thesis — curated valuations, fundamental thesis and technical analysis, generated for Lei Holdings Patreon members

From Lei Holdings Our latest investment thesis — curated valuations, fundamentals, and technicals on a name we think the market is mispricing — is up for members. Read it on Patreon →

Oil Jumps 3% as Iran Hardens Its Terms. Gold Keeps Climbing.

WTI rose roughly 3.5% Monday to $80.91 after Iran's foreign minister ruled out direct US talks and hardened conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, per Al Jazeera and CNBC. USO is up 6.7% since Friday's close. Gold added another 1.0% on top of last week's breakout, with RSI now at 67.5 — the most stretched reading of the rally.

GLD · SPDR Gold Shares

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $402.54
Source: FMP EOD data

Up 1.0% Monday to $402.54, extending last week's 7.3% breakout further. Now 5.4% above its 50-day average of $382.14. RSI climbed to 67.5 and the MACD histogram widened to +4.09 — strong momentum, but the RSI level is close enough to overbought to flag for a near-term pause.

USO · United States Oil Fund

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $125.92
Source: FMP EOD data

Jumped to $125.92 Monday, up 6.7% from Friday's $117.98 close as Iran's hardened Hormuz terms revived the war-premium trade. Now 4.0% above its 50-day average of $121.08; RSI rose to 53.7 and the MACD histogram narrowed to −0.70, just short of turning positive for the first time since late July.

Why oil snapped back

Iran's Araghchi called an Oman-brokered shipping route "very close" but ruled out direct US talks, per Bloomberg — no resolution, just a harder negotiating line

FXEmpire: oil "soars 6%" on the combination of stalled talks and a fresh Houthi drone strike claim on a Saudi Aramco refinery

Trump extended the Jones Act waiver another 90 days to keep foreign-flagged tankers moving US oil, per Reuters — a sign the administration still sees the disruption as ongoing

Why gold kept climbing

Citadel Securities' Scott Rubner told Kitco Monday's setup is "one of the more compelling upside setups we have seen in precious metals in months," and Citadel is now calling for structural gold exposure

Oil-driven inflation fears ahead of Wednesday's CPI add a second tailwind on top of last week's rate-cut repricing

RSI at 67.5 is the highest of this rally — worth watching for a pause even if the trend stays intact

USD/JPY

¥159.17

USD/JPY Mon

+0.9%

GLD wk (Fri)

+7.3%

SLV wk (Fri)

+9.8%

The yen weakened to ¥159.17 Monday as oil-driven inflation worry lifted the dollar broadly — though WSJ reported early Tuesday that prospects of coordinated Japan-US intervention were already pulling the yen back. Separately, Trump said Monday he'd spoken with Fed Chair Warsh "one time, briefly," denying an earlier report of regular calls between the two.

What’s on the Calendar

Monday's Hormuz-and-Intel selloff was contained to chips and oil. Wednesday's CPI is the week's real test — a tame print keeps September rate-cut odds intact, a hot one forces a fast repricing of everything gold and equities have priced in since Friday's jobs miss.

Fri Aug 7

NFP

Non-Farm Payrolls (Jul): −23K vs +80K est.; unemployment 4.1% High vol

The first negative payrolls print this cycle. SPY and QQQ closed at records anyway as rate-hike odds collapsed — last week's decisive number.

Mon Aug 10

—

Iran hardens Hormuz terms; Intel announces $15B share sale; Trump extends Jones Act waiver

WSJ: stocks fell as hopes for a Hormuz reopening were "dashed again." Oil jumped roughly 3.5%; Intel's surprise raise and a $130B Nvidia pullback dragged SMH down 2.3% while the S&P held near flat.

Tue Aug 11

CRWV

CoreWeave earnings, after today's close; est. EPS −$1.21, revenue $2.55B

First of the week's three AI-capex-adjacent prints — a read on GPU-cloud demand under the same spending-return scrutiny that's been pressuring chip names.

Wed Aug 12

CPI

US CPI (Jul), 8:30am ET; Cisco earnings High vol

Consensus 3.4% headline YoY, 2.5% core. CNBC: Kalshi traders put under 55% odds CPI prints above 3.3%. The swing print for September, now complicated by Monday's oil spike.

Thu Aug 13

PPI

Producer Price Index (Jul); initial claims; Applied Materials earnings

Core PPI MoM est. +0.2% — a hot print would cut against the dovish read. Applied Materials (est. EPS $3.39) is the week's direct semi-equipment read-through for SMH.

Fri Aug 14

RETL

Retail Sales (Jul) High vol; Michigan Consumer Sentiment

A read on whether consumer spending is holding up as the labor market visibly cools — closes out the week's data gauntlet.

Flagged — unverified or single-sourced

No formal resolution to the US-Iran Hormuz standoff has been confirmed either way. Iran's foreign minister called an Oman-brokered shipping route "very close" while ruling out direct US talks — treat Monday's oil spike as a negotiating-posture headline, not a supply outcome.
CPI consensus figures (3.4% headline, 2.5% core) are Dow Jones/prediction-market estimates as of Monday, not Wednesday's actual print — they will be stale the moment the release lands at 8:30am ET.

Datadog's Snapback, Palo Alto's Record — and One Real Unexplained Move

Three recognizable single names tripped Monday's mover-scanner. Two had real, verifiable catalysts; the third — AMC — did not, despite a same-day headline that reads bullish. The scanner also flagged three sector-level rotations (AI semis, cybersecurity, enterprise software), noted below but not individually verified as tickers.

Mon Aug 10

DDOG

Datadog +11.5%

Real catalyst: an oversold bounce off last Thursday's post-earnings 19% crash, fueled by same-day bullish notes — Zacks called Q2 "a beat" with solid 2026 guidance, and Seeking Alpha flagged the pullback as a "tactical buying opportunity." Verified against actual closes: $233.93 (Fri) → $260.78 (Mon).

Mon Aug 10

PANW

Palo Alto Networks +5.8%

Real catalyst: CNBC reported Palo Alto and CrowdStrike hit record highs after the Black Hat security conference, where BTIG said "AI agents have fundamentally changed the threat landscape." A same-day Motley Fool piece noted a brief dip on a China-investigation report before shares recovered. Verified: $363.86 → $385.04.

Mon Aug 10

AMC

AMC −6.6% Unexplained

No real catalyst found. The scanner's discourse match — a Zacks piece on AMC's European business "roaring back" — is bullish in tone and cannot explain a 6.6% decline; it's noise, not a cause. Move verified against actual closes ($2.59 → $2.42); no earnings, guidance, or news event located to explain the drop.

How this list is built

Source: an internal mover-scanner (tofu-agent) flags recognizable names and sectors with same-day moves and a confidence score. The three single-ticker signals used above scored 0.29–0.33 — a low-confidence batch; every figure was re-derived from actual close-to-close FMP prices, and every catalyst claim checked against real news rather than the scanner's own discourse match.
Three additional sector-level signals fired the same day — AI semiconductors (+3.3%, score 0.70), cybersecurity (+4.7%, score 0.80), and enterprise software (+3.4%, score 1.00) — but these describe sector baskets, not tradeable tickers, and weren't individually verified here; treat them as directional color, not confirmed single-name moves.
AMC's "Unexplained" flag stands as a genuine data point, not a hedge — this is what a scanner miss looks like, and it's reported as one rather than forced into a narrative.

One Geopolitical Headline, Four Markets Reacting

Iran's harder Hormuz line is doing the work Friday's jobs number did last week — moving oil, gold, chips, and the Fed conversation all at once, a day before CPI adds a fifth variable.

Oil's spike is a negotiating posture, not a supply shock

Iran's Araghchi called an Oman shipping route "very close" while ruling out direct US talks — a mixed signal markets read as bearish for a near-term reopening, sending WTI up roughly 3.5% and USO up 6.7% since Friday.

That same oil spike complicates Wednesday's CPI read

A hotter energy component the day before the print raises the odds CPI surprises to the upside, working against the dovish rate-cut narrative equities and gold have both been pricing since Friday's jobs miss.

Chips fell on financing news, not demand news

Intel's $15B raise and Nvidia's $500B financing-deal headline both reflect capital being deployed for AI infrastructure, not withdrawn from it — the market's sell-the-news reaction is a valuation adjustment, not a fundamental one.

Gold's RSI at 67.5 is the rally's first stretched reading

Every prior session this rally, RSI stayed in the 50s-60s. Monday's push to 67.5 is the first level worth flagging as overbought territory — not a reversal signal on its own, but the buffer for further upside is thinner than a week ago.

Warsh is fielding inflation risk from both directions this week

WSJ: the Fed chair's "tough talk" on 2% inflation gets tested by CPI and PPI in the next 48 hours — now complicated by an oil-driven cost-push element neither report was designed to isolate cleanly.

Kevin Warsh

Chair, Federal Reserve

Trump said Monday he'd spoken to Warsh "one time, briefly," pushing back on an earlier report of regular calls — a small but pointed independence signal heading into Wednesday's CPI, the first major test of Warsh's inflation-fighting credibility. Photo: Federal Reserve / Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

Where This Leaves Positioning

SPY $773

Monday's close, essentially unchanged from Friday's record. Holding here into Wednesday's CPI keeps the "bad news is good news" read alive; a break lower would signal the oil spike is starting to matter to equities.

SMH $594

The 50-day average. Monday's pullback put SMH 4.2% below it — a close back above would confirm Monday's dip was a one-day financing-news reaction, not a resumed downtrend.

GLD $398–400

Friday's close now acts as first support after Monday's push higher. A pullback that holds above it keeps the breakout intact; RSI above 67 means a stall here wouldn't be surprising.

USO $121

The 50-day average, which Monday's spike pushed through from below. Holding above it on any pullback confirms the war-premium trade has legs; a fast reversal back under $118 would suggest Monday overshot.

USD/JPY ¥160

The next round-number level Monday's move approached. WSJ flagged early Tuesday intervention chatter as a headwind to further yen weakness from here.

CPI runs hot

Oil's spike shows up in the print

If Wednesday's CPI beats the 3.4% headline consensus, partly on Monday's energy jump, rate-cut odds for September pare back fast — gold's stretched RSI and equities near records both have room to give back gains.

Read-through: GLD pulls back from $402, SPY tests $760, USD/JPY resumes weakening toward ¥163.

CPI comes in tame

Prediction markets are right

Kalshi traders put under 55% odds on CPI above 3.3%. A tame print alongside Friday's weak jobs data strengthens the September-cut case further, letting equities and gold both extend.

Read-through: SPY grinds to new records, GLD holds above $400, chip stocks recover Monday's dip.

Base case

Oil and chips moved Monday on separate stories — CPI Wednesday is the number that ties them back together.

Equities: SPY and QQQ closed Monday essentially flat, down 0.03% and 0.30%, even as SMH fell 2.3% on Intel's $15B share sale and a 2.9% Nvidia pullback. Seeking Alpha's read — that chip selloffs have stopped dragging the index — held again Monday. CoreWeave reports Tuesday, Cisco and Applied Materials later this week.

Commodities: oil jumped roughly 3.5% as Iran hardened its Hormuz terms, pushing USO up 6.7% since Friday and reviving the inflation-premium trade a day before CPI. Gold added another 1.0% on top of last week's breakout, with RSI at 67.5 — the most stretched reading of the rally so far.

FX & rates: the yen weakened to ¥159.17 Monday on the oil-driven dollar bid, though WSJ reported early signs of coordinated Japan-US intervention chatter tempering further weakness into Tuesday. Trump said he'd spoken to Fed Chair Warsh only once, briefly — a small independence signal ahead of Wednesday's inflation test.

The wildcard: whether Monday's oil spike shows up in Wednesday's CPI print. A tame report keeps the September rate-cut case intact and lets Monday's chip weakness look like noise; a hot one, partly energy-driven, would force a fast repricing of both the equity and gold rallies at once.

—

Sources

U.S. stocks fall as hopes for Strait of Hormuz reopening are dashed again — WSJ, Aug 10 2026 Oil prices climb as Iranian demands cloud outlook for Strait of Hormuz — Al Jazeera, Aug 10 2026 Oil soars 6% as Iran demands reparations — FXEmpire, Aug 10 2026 Oil prices today: uncertainty over U.S.-Iran Strait of Hormuz deal — CNBC, Aug 10 2026 Trump extends Jones Act waiver for 90 days, narrows scope — Reuters, Aug 10 2026 Dow slips as Hormuz uncertainty, Intel share sale weigh on Wall Street — Invezz, Aug 10 2026 Intel launches $15 billion share sale as turnaround rally lifts stock — Yahoo Finance, Aug 10 2026 Why Nvidia stock is slipping over 3% on Monday — Invezz, Aug 10 2026 Nvidia teams up with Wall Street asset managers on $500 billion AI infrastructure push — CNBC, Aug 10 2026 BofA: Nvidia's next earnings report could kick off a "multi-quarter upgrade cycle" — Proactive Investors, Aug 10 2026 The S&P Is Ignoring Semiconductor Crashes — Seeking Alpha, Aug 10 2026 Five catalysts combine to create "one of the more compelling upside setups" in precious metals — Kitco, Aug 10 2026 Wednesday's crucial CPI report will show tamer inflation, prediction markets show — CNBC, Aug 10 2026 CrowdStrike, Palo Alto hit records after Black Hat cyber conference — CNBC, Aug 10 2026 Cybersecurity stocks surge, with Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike leading the charge — Investopedia, Aug 10 2026 Why Palo Alto Networks stock dropped, then popped — The Motley Fool, Aug 10 2026 Datadog: best of breed for multiple reasons — Seeking Alpha, Aug 9 2026 Is DDOG stock worth investing in after Q2 beat & solid '26 guidance? — Zacks, Aug 10 2026 AMC's Europe business roars back: can international growth continue? — Zacks, Aug 10 2026 Trump says he spoke recently to Fed Chairman Warsh, denies regular calls — CNBC, Aug 10 2026 Inflation reports could test Warsh's tough talk — WSJ, Aug 10 2026 Yen strengthens slightly amid prospects of coordinated intervention — WSJ, Aug 10 2026 Price, RSI, and MACD data computed from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) EOD data, pulled Aug 11, 2026 (last close: Mon Aug 10). Economic-calendar and earnings-calendar data — FMP. Fed Chair confirmed current via Federal Reserve press releases and CNBC, Aug 10 2026.