This Week: Oil Extends Hormuz Rally to +8% Since Friday Software Slides — AppLovin, Oracle, Datadog Fall — Chips Hold Firm CPI Due 8:30am ET Today; PPI Thursday, Retail Sales Friday CoreWeave Revenue More Than Doubles After the Bell; Cisco Reports Today SPY, QQQ Slip Tuesday on Nasdaq's First Distribution Day in Weeks

Markets

Week Ahead

Chips Hold Firm as Software Slides Into CPI Morning, Oil Extends Its Hormuz Run.

Tuesday's selloff had a narrower address than it looked: AppLovin (−6.0%, BofA downgrade), Oracle (−3.7%, AI-capex doubts and layoff reports) and Datadog (−5.4%, no clear cause found) dragged the Nasdaq into its first real distribution day in weeks, but SMH actually rose 0.6% as chip names held up. Oil extended its Hormuz-standoff rally to 8.2% since Friday's close. After the bell, CoreWeave's revenue more than doubled to $2.6 billion, reinforcing the AI-capex case chips need today — the morning CPI print, still pending as this was written, is the week's real test.

By Lei Holdings Research

Tuesday, August 11, 2026 close · Prepared Wednesday, August 12, 2026 · Published every weekday morning — see the full archive

SPY$770.56−0.32% Tue

QQQ$718.45−0.34% Tue

SMH$572.93+0.6% Tue

GLD$400.96−0.4% Tue

SLV$58.55−1.5% Tue

USO$127.61+8.2% since Fri

USD/JPY¥159.29Tue close

Crude oil tanker at anchor — Oil's Hormuz-driven rally kept extending Tuesday, pushing USO's gain since Friday's close to 8.2% and keeping the inflation-premium trade alive heading into Wednesday's CPI print. Photo: Wikimedia Commons.

Software Dragged the Nasdaq Down Tuesday. Chips Actually Rose.

SMH gained 0.6% Tuesday even as QQQ fell 0.34% — a rotation, not a broad selloff. The damage was concentrated in software and consumer names: AppLovin fell 6.0% on a BofA downgrade, Oracle dropped 3.7% on AI-capex doubts and layoff reports, and Datadog slid 5.4% with no clear catalyst found. Investors Business Daily called it the Nasdaq's first real distribution day in weeks.

SMH, Tuesday

+0.6%

QQQ, Tuesday

−0.34%

SPY, Tuesday

−0.32%

AppLovin, Tuesday

−6.0%

What actually happened

Software sold off, chips didn't

BofA downgraded AppLovin to Neutral on doubts it can sustain 30% revenue growth. Oracle fell a third straight session on AI-spending concerns and Business Insider reports of a new round of layoffs. Datadog's 5.4% drop has no clear cause — insider-sale filings surfaced Tuesday describe an August 6 transaction, not a same-day trigger.

Why chips held up

CoreWeave's earnings landed after the close

CoreWeave's Q2 revenue more than doubled to $2.6 billion with a $104 billion backlog, per WSJ, and shares jumped in after-hours trading. MarketWatch called it "major AI momentum" — a data point for chip demand that outweighed Tuesday's software-specific selling.

SMH · VanEck Semiconductor ETF

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $572.93
Source: FMP EOD data

Peak $668.91 (Jun 22) → trough $504.22 (Jul 29), a 24.6% drawdown → Tuesday close $572.93, up 13.6% off the trough but still 14.3% below the peak. Now 3.5% below the 50-day average of $593.81; RSI sits at 50.4 and the MACD histogram widened to +4.22 — momentum is turning up even with price still under its average.

Tuesday's most-discussed single names — three software/ad-tech names that fell, one chip bellwether that held. Full verification of each move in Market Movers below.

Cisco reports today (est. EPS $1.17), with Applied Materials following Thursday (est. EPS $3.40) — the week's direct semi-equipment read-through for SMH. Nvidia itself doesn't report until Aug 26, but BofA is already calling for a "multi-quarter upgrade cycle," per Proactive Investors, projecting a $3–4 billion beat above the company's own $91 billion guidance.

Investment Thesis — curated valuations, fundamental thesis and technical analysis, generated for Lei Holdings Patreon members

From Lei Holdings Our latest investment thesis — curated valuations, fundamentals, and technicals on a name we think the market is mispricing — is up for members. Read it on Patreon →

Oil Keeps Climbing on the Hormuz Deadlock. Gold Takes a Breather.

USO rose another 1.3% Tuesday to $127.61, up 8.2% since Friday, as Iran and the US remained deadlocked on Strait of Hormuz terms — Pakistan's defense minister called a deal "close," but WSJ reported stocks fell Tuesday on the same standoff. Gold slipped 0.4% to $400.96, its first pullback after last week's stretched RSI reading, while silver fell 1.5%.

GLD · SPDR Gold Shares

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $400.96
Source: FMP EOD data

Down 0.4% Tuesday to $400.96, its first pullback after last week's breakout. Still 5.0% above its 50-day average of $381.81. RSI eased to 65.8 from Monday's 67.5, and the MACD histogram narrowed slightly to +4.14 — momentum cooling, not reversing.

USO · United States Oil Fund

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $127.61
Source: FMP EOD data

Rose to $127.61 Tuesday, up 1.3% on the day and 8.2% since Friday's $117.98 close as the Hormuz standoff dragged on. Now 5.4% above its 50-day average of $121.05; RSI climbed to 55.1 and the MACD histogram narrowed to −0.22, close to turning positive for the first time since late July.

Why oil kept climbing

Pakistan's defense minister said the US and Iran are "close to some sort of arrangement" on Hormuz, even as both sides hardened their public stances, per Bloomberg — the gap between diplomatic tone and negotiating posture is itself keeping a premium in the price

WSJ: US stocks fell Tuesday as the Strait of Hormuz standoff "remains deadlocked," with oil rising into the inflation data

No new supply disruption reported Tuesday — the move is priced uncertainty, not a fresh shock

Why gold paused

RSI at 67.5 Monday was the most stretched reading of the rally; Tuesday's pullback to 65.8 is a normal cooling-off, not a trend break

Some Fed-adjacent voices — including former Trump advisor Joe Lavorgna and Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack — argued Tuesday the Fed may need to hike, not cut, to tame inflation, a headwind for gold if it gains traction

Silver fell harder than gold, down 1.5% versus gold's 0.4% — a sign some of the pullback is profit-taking after silver's outsized run

USD/JPY

¥159.29

USD/JPY wk (Fri)

flat

GLD wk (Fri)

+0.6%

SLV wk (Fri)

+1.8%

The yen held roughly flat at ¥159.29 Tuesday — WSJ's "Yen Intervention Wears Off" noted last week's coordinated Japan-US intervention effects are fading, though the pair hasn't resumed its earlier slide. Options markets are also cooling: Seeking Alpha reported the implied odds of a September Fed rate hike fell from 71% to 43% last week, even as some officials publicly floated the opposite move Tuesday.

What’s on the Calendar

Tuesday's selloff was concentrated in software, not chips or the broader tape. CPI lands this morning at 8:30am ET — the real test, and one now complicated by a handful of Fed-adjacent voices publicly floating rate hikes instead of cuts.

Fri Aug 7

NFP

Non-Farm Payrolls (Jul): −23K vs +80K est.; unemployment 4.1% High vol

The first negative payrolls print this cycle. SPY and QQQ closed at records anyway as rate-hike odds collapsed — last week's decisive number.

Mon Aug 10

—

Iran hardens Hormuz terms; Intel announces $15B share sale; Trump extends Jones Act waiver

WSJ: stocks fell as hopes for a Hormuz reopening were "dashed again." Oil jumped and SMH slid 2.3% on the Intel news, though the S&P held near flat.

Tue Aug 11

—

AppLovin −6.0% on BofA downgrade; Oracle −3.7% on AI-capex doubts; CoreWeave beats after the close

IBD: the Nasdaq's first real distribution day in weeks, driven by software names — SMH itself rose 0.6%. CoreWeave's revenue more than doubled to $2.6B, reported after Tuesday's close.

Wed Aug 12

CPI

US CPI (Jul), 8:30am ET; Cisco earnings High vol

Consensus 3.4% headline YoY, 2.5% core, per FMP's economic calendar — still pending as this was written. The swing print for September, now debated between rate-cut and rate-hike camps.

Thu Aug 13

PPI

Producer Price Index (Jul); initial claims; Applied Materials earnings

Core PPI MoM est. +0.3% — a hot print would cut against the dovish read. Applied Materials (est. EPS $3.40) is the week's direct semi-equipment read-through for SMH.

Fri Aug 14

RETL

Retail Sales (Jul) High vol; Michigan Consumer Sentiment

A read on whether consumer spending is holding up as the labor market visibly cools — closes out the week's data gauntlet.

Flagged — unverified or single-sourced

No formal resolution to the US-Iran Hormuz standoff has been confirmed either way. Pakistan's defense minister called a deal "close" Tuesday even as both sides publicly hardened their terms — treat this as an unresolved negotiating posture, not a supply outcome.
CPI consensus figures (3.4% headline, 2.5% core) are FMP economic-calendar estimates as of Tuesday, not the actual print — this edition was prepared before the 8:30am ET release and will be stale the moment it lands.
Rate-hike commentary from Joe Lavorgna (a former Trump administration advisor, not a sitting Fed official) and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack reflects individual opinions, not a Fed consensus or policy signal — treat as a data point on the debate, not a forecast.

AppLovin's Downgrade, Oracle's AI-Capex Doubt — and Two Unexplained Moves

Five recognizable single names tripped Tuesday's mover-scanner. Three had real, verifiable catalysts; two — Datadog and Starbucks — did not, despite discourse matches that read plausible on the surface. A sixth signal flagged enterprise software as a sector-level rotation, noted below but not individually verified as a ticker.

Tue Aug 11

APP

AppLovin −6.0%

Real catalyst: BofA Securities downgraded AppLovin to Neutral from Buy and cut its price target to $400 from $430, per Benzinga and Barron's, citing doubts the company can sustain its 30% revenue growth trajectory after Q2. Verified against actual closes: $339.00 (Mon) → $318.68 (Tue).

Tue Aug 11

ORCL

Oracle −3.7%

Real catalyst: MarketWatch reported AI-spending concerns resurfacing, Business Insider reported Oracle has drawn up plans for a new round of layoffs this month, and 24/7 Wall St. noted Nvidia's $500B financing deal is pulling capital toward rivals like Nebius instead. Verified: $151.05 → $145.48.

Tue Aug 11

NKE

Nike −1.9%

Real catalyst: a sector-wide footwear selloff — the Motley Fool reported Nike, Lululemon, Deckers, and On Holding "have all plunged" the same session, with no Nike-specific news identified beyond the group move. Verified: $42.11 → $41.32.

Tue Aug 11

DDOG

Datadog −5.4% Unexplained

No real same-day catalyst found. The scanner's discourse match — a report of a director's stock sale — describes an August 6 transaction disclosed August 11, not a same-day trigger; it cannot explain a 5.4% single-day drop. Verified against actual closes ($260.78 → $246.78); no earnings, guidance, or news event located.

Tue Aug 11

SBUX

Starbucks +1.9% Unexplained

No real catalyst found. The scanner's discourse match — a generic ETF comparison piece on consumer-staples funds — does not reference Starbucks specifically and cannot explain the move. Verified against actual closes ($104.65 → $106.66); no Starbucks-specific news located.

How this list is built

Source: an internal mover-scanner (tofu-agent) flags recognizable names and sectors with same-day moves and a confidence score. The five single-ticker signals used above scored 0.23–0.28 — a low-confidence batch; every figure was re-derived from actual close-to-close FMP prices, and every catalyst claim checked against real news rather than the scanner's own discourse match.
One additional sector-level signal fired the same day — enterprise software (+4.2%, score 0.70) — but this describes a sector basket, not a tradeable ticker, and wasn't individually verified here; treat it as directional color, not a confirmed single-name move.
Datadog and Starbucks' "Unexplained" flags stand as genuine data points, not a hedge — this is what a scanner miss looks like, and it's reported as one rather than forced into a narrative.

A Software Selloff, a Chip Rotation, and a Fed Debate — All Before CPI

Tuesday's moves read like three separate stories, but they converge on the same question this morning's CPI print will start to answer: is the economy cooling enough to cut, or running hot enough that some Fed voices are right to float hikes?

Software's selloff was stock-specific, not a chip read-through

AppLovin fell on an analyst downgrade, Oracle on AI-capex and layoff concerns — both company-specific stories. SMH rose 0.6% the same session, a sign chip demand itself wasn't in question Tuesday.

CoreWeave's earnings landed exactly when chips needed a data point

Revenue more than doubling to $2.6B and a $104B backlog, reported after Tuesday's close, gives the AI-capex bull case fresh ammunition heading into Cisco's report today and Applied Materials' Thursday.

Oil's rally is now the biggest single swing factor into CPI

USO's 8.2% gain since Friday raises the odds of a hotter-than-expected energy component in this morning's print — the same dynamic that's been building since Monday, now a full session further along.

Gold's pullback tracks a live debate over which way the Fed moves next

RSI easing from 67.5 to 65.8 coincided with two Fed-adjacent voices — Joe Lavorgna and Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack — publicly arguing for rate hikes Tuesday, a headwind for gold if the idea gains traction against the market's dominant rate-cut pricing.

Warsh now faces a live hike-vs-cut debate, not just an inflation test

A week ago the question was whether the Fed would cut in September. Tuesday's commentary reframed it as a genuine two-sided debate — this morning's CPI is the first hard data point either side can point to.

Kevin Warsh

Chair, Federal Reserve

Warsh has not publicly commented on the hike-vs-cut debate that other Fed-adjacent voices raised Tuesday. This morning's CPI is the first data point that could tilt his position either way. Photo: Federal Reserve / Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

Where This Leaves Positioning

SPY $770

Tuesday's close, down 0.32%. Holding near here through this morning's CPI keeps the pullback contained to software; a deeper break would suggest the selloff is spreading to the broader tape.

SMH $594

The 50-day average. SMH sits 3.5% below it after Tuesday's gain — a close back above would confirm the chip recovery has resumed rather than stalled.

GLD $398–400

Tuesday's close and last week's breakout level now act as first support. A pullback that holds above it keeps the rally intact; RSI easing from 67.5 to 65.8 gives it more room before flagging overbought again.

USO $121

The 50-day average, now 5.4% below Tuesday's close. Holding above it on any pullback confirms the Hormuz-premium trade has legs; a fast reversal back under $118 would suggest the rally has overshot the underlying risk.

USD/JPY ¥160

The round-number level the pair has approached but not cleared. WSJ's report that intervention effects are "wearing off" suggests the path of least resistance is still toward this level, not away from it.

CPI runs hot

Oil's rally shows up in the print

If this morning's CPI beats the 3.4% headline consensus, partly on oil's 8.2% run since Friday, the rate-hike voices from Tuesday gain credibility fast — gold's recent pullback and equities near records both have room to extend lower.

Read-through: GLD extends its pullback below $398, SPY tests $760, USD/JPY pushes through ¥160.

CPI comes in tame

The rate-cut case reasserts itself

A print near or below the 3.4% consensus undercuts Tuesday's rate-hike commentary and re-anchors the market back to the post-jobs-miss rate-cut narrative, letting equities and chips both extend.

Read-through: SPY grinds back toward records, SMH clears its 50-day average, GLD resumes its climb.

Base case

Software fell Tuesday, chips didn't — this morning's CPI decides whether that split holds or the rate-hike talk starts to matter.

Equities: SPY and QQQ fell 0.32% and 0.34% Tuesday on a software-driven selloff — AppLovin, Oracle, and Datadog — while SMH gained 0.6%. IBD called it the Nasdaq's first real distribution day in weeks. CoreWeave's blowout earnings landed after the close; Cisco reports today, Applied Materials Thursday.

Commodities: oil extended its Hormuz-standoff rally to 8.2% since Friday, while gold pulled back 0.4% and silver fell 1.5% — the rally's first real pause after last week's stretched RSI reading.

FX & rates: the yen held roughly flat at ¥159.29 as intervention effects from last week fade, per WSJ. Two Fed-adjacent voices publicly argued Tuesday for rate hikes rather than cuts — commentary, not policy, but a genuine shift in the debate ahead of this morning's CPI.

The wildcard: whether this morning's CPI print validates the rate-cut case or hands ammunition to Tuesday's rate-hike voices. A tame number keeps oil's rally and Tuesday's software selloff both looking like noise; a hot one, with oil as a visible contributor, would force a fast repricing across equities, gold, and the dollar at once.

—

Sources

U.S. Stocks Down as Oil Rises Ahead of Inflation Data — WSJ, Aug 11 2026 Dow falls 180 pts as oil rises on Hormuz fears; Nasdaq slips before CPI data — Invezz, Aug 11 2026 Stock Market Steps Back As Investors Eye CPI; Software Drags Nasdaq — Investor's Business Daily, Aug 11 2026 Pakistan Says Deal Is Close Even as Iran, US Harden Stances — Bloomberg, Aug 11 2026 Yen Intervention Wears Off — WSJ, Aug 11 2026 SPX Skew Collapses On Upside Chasing — Seeking Alpha, Aug 11 2026 Fed will need to hike rates to tackle inflation, says Fmr. Trump Special Assistant Joe Lavorgna — CNBC, Aug 11 2026 Fed's Hammack says multiple rate hikes may be needed to tame inflation — Fox Business, Aug 11 2026 AppLovin Stock Drops After BofA Downgrades Rating — Benzinga, Aug 11 2026 AppLovin Stock Is Today's Worst Performer In the S&P 500. This Is Why. — Barron's, Aug 11 2026 Oracle's stock has taken a hit as AI spending concerns resurface — MarketWatch, Aug 11 2026 Oracle has drawn up plans for a new round of layoffs this month, sources say — Business Insider, Aug 11 2026 Nebius Is Rising While Oracle Falls: Nvidia's $500B Funding Plan Pushes the Stocks in Opposite Directions — 24/7 Wall St., Aug 11 2026 Nike, Lululemon, Deckers, and On Holding Have All Plunged — The Motley Fool, Aug 11 2026 Datadog Director Amit Agarwal Sells 20,000 Shares of Stock — Defense World, Aug 11 2026 CoreWeave Reports New Revenue High of $2.6 Billion as Sales Backlog Grows — WSJ, Aug 11 2026 CoreWeave's stock soars as earnings show major AI momentum — MarketWatch, Aug 11 2026 BofA: Nvidia's next earnings report could kick off a "multi-quarter upgrade cycle" — Proactive Investors, Aug 10 2026 Price, RSI, and MACD data computed from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) EOD data, pulled Aug 12, 2026 (last close: Tue Aug 11). Economic-calendar and earnings-calendar data — FMP; CPI print pending at time of writing. Fed Chair confirmed current via Federal Reserve press releases, Aug 12 2026.