This Week: Dow Snaps a Two-Week Win Streak, Down 0.6% on Friday's Retail-Sales Miss July FOMC Minutes Due This Week — Three Dissents in Favor of a Hike, per Bloomberg Walmart, Target, Home Depot Earnings Headline a Quiet Data Week AMD Jumps 6.5% Friday on AI-Demand Momentum, Prices $4.75B in New Debt Oracle Falls 3.8% Friday as a Data-Center Gas Pipeline Slips Six Months Gulf Markets Gain Sunday Despite Stalled Iran Talks, Hormuz Still Disrupted Ackman's Pershing Square 13F Adds Netflix, Visa, Mastercard, S&P Global Reddit Joins the S&P 500 Tuesday, Aug 18, Replacing AvalonBay

Markets

Week Ahead

Markets Enter a Quiet Data Week Still Digesting Friday's Retail-Sales Miss, With FOMC Minutes and Big-Box Earnings the Next Test.

Friday's close remains the market's most recent read: the Dow snapped a two-week win streak, down 0.6% on a weak July retail-sales print, even as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq held gains for the week on cooler inflation data. This week brings July's FOMC minutes — which Bloomberg reports included three dissents in favor of a hike — plus Walmart, Target, and Home Depot earnings, the market's clearest read yet on the consumer Friday's data called into question. Gulf markets opened higher Sunday despite still-stalled Iran talks and Hormuz traffic yet to fully resume.

By Lei Holdings Research

Friday, August 14, 2026 close, the most recent available · Prepared Monday, August 17, 2026 · Published every weekday morning — see the full archive

SPY$776.34−0.20% Fri

QQQ$731.07−0.14% Fri

SMH$587.82−0.22% Fri

GLD$401.48+0.63% Fri

SLV$58.48+0.55% Fri

USO$126.60+1.26% Fri

USD/JPY¥159.32−0.10% Fri

Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, Washington D.C. — July's FOMC minutes, due this week, will show how the Fed's three dissents in favor of a rate hike were resolved — the next test after Friday's retail-sales miss. Photo: Wikimedia Commons.

Applied Materials Posts a Record Quarter — the Market Sells It 5.1% Anyway

AMAT beat on revenue and EPS, guided Q4 above consensus, and cited AI-chip demand visibility into 2027-2030. The stock still fell 5.1% Friday — the last close of a week where beat-and-raise no longer defended a name up nearly 200% year-over-year. It's the standing question this data-light week has to answer.

AMAT, Friday

−5.1%

SMH, Friday

−0.22%

SPY, Friday

−0.20%

QQQ, Friday

−0.14%

What actually happened

A record quarter, sold anyway

AMAT posted $9.12B Q3 revenue (+25% YoY) and $3.50 EPS, both beats, and guided Q4 to $10.25B/$4.02 EPS above consensus, per Schaeffer's Research. Shares fell 5.1% Friday anyway.

Why the beat didn't matter

The selloff is a valuation story, not a demand story

Seeking Alpha called it the market "ignoring the AI equipment boom"; Investopedia and Schwab Network called it profit-taking after a near-200% run that had already priced in a strong quarter.

Applied Materials headquarters, Santa Clara — Applied Materials' Santa Clara headquarters. Record Q3 results and above-consensus guidance still weren't enough to stop Friday's 5.1% slide. Photo: Wikimedia Commons.

SMH · VanEck Semiconductor ETF

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $587.82

Peak $668.91 (Jun 22) → trough $504.22 (Jul 29), a 24.6% drawdown → Friday's close $587.82, +0.88% for the week ended Aug 14 — still the most recent completed session. 0.62% below its 50-day average of $591.49; RSI 54.1, MACD histogram flat at +5.46 — a pause, not a reversal.

AMAT's record Q3 print — the week's clearest test of whether a beat still buys AI-adjacent names any benefit of the doubt.

Nvidia doesn't report until Aug 26. AMD priced $4.75B in new debt Thursday and jumped 6.5% Friday on continued AI-demand momentum, per Motley Fool coverage — a reminder the AI trade split into winners and question marks even within the same week AMAT sold off.

Investment Thesis — curated valuations, fundamental thesis and technical analysis, generated for Lei Holdings Patreon members

From Lei Holdings Our latest investment thesis — curated valuations, fundamentals, and technicals on a name we think the market is mispricing — is up for members. Read it on Patreon →

Oil Finally Reacts: Tanker Attacks Push USO Up 7.3% on the Week

Two ADNOC-linked tankers were attacked transiting Hormuz Thursday, per the UAE government, and the US reiterated its indefinite-blockade threat. USO gained 1.3% Friday, 7.3% on the week. Gulf equity markets still opened higher Sunday despite stalled Iran talks and Hormuz traffic yet to fully resume, per Reuters — a sign the region isn't pricing further escalation this week.

Map of the Strait of Hormuz — The Strait of Hormuz, where two tankers were attacked Thursday — the escalation oil finally priced in after weeks of shrugging off blockade threats. Map: Wikimedia Commons.

GLD · SPDR Gold Shares

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $401.48

Up 0.63% Friday to $401.48, +0.76% on the week, 5.3% above its 50-day average of $381.30. RSI at 63.2; MACD histogram narrowed to +3.23 from +3.64 — momentum cooling, not reversing.

USO · United States Oil Fund

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $126.60

Rose 1.3% Friday to $126.60, +7.3% for the week — strongest since April. 5.2% above its 50-day average of $120.35; RSI 53.8, MACD histogram +0.18 from +0.08 — showing up in price, not just headlines.

Why oil moved this time

Two ADNOC tankers attacked transiting Hormuz Thursday evening, per the UAE government — threats became an actual incident

Reuters/BusinessWorld: US maintaining an indefinite naval blockade of Iran as talks stall, deepening oil supply shortfalls

Brent and WTI both gained roughly 1.5-1.9% Friday morning on the attack headlines, per Yahoo Finance

Why gold and silver firmed too

WSJ: Friday's weak retail-sales print revived safe-haven demand — a crack in the soft-landing case

SLV gained 0.55% Friday, 1.7% on the week, tracking gold rather than leading it

RSI 63.2 is the more stretched of the two metals — watch if FOMC minutes lean hawkish

USD/JPY

¥159.32

USD/JPY Fri

−0.10%

GLD wk (Fri)

+0.76%

SLV wk (Fri)

+1.70%

The yen firmed to ¥159.32, still shy of ¥160, with Japan on possible-intervention watch per Bloomberg. USD/JPY held roughly 1% higher for the week; this week's FOMC minutes are the next catalyst for the dollar's rate-path advantage.

What’s on the Calendar

Friday's retail-sales miss and AMAT's selloff carry into a data-light week built around two events: July's FOMC minutes and a run of big-box retail earnings that will show whether the consumer crack was real or a Prime Day quirk.

Wed Aug 12

CPI

US CPI (Jul): +0.1% MoM, +3.4% YoY, matching estimates

WSJ: "Cool Inflation Data Propels Stocks to Fresh Records." Core CPI held at 2.5%; the disinflation narrative began here.

Thu Aug 13

PPI / AMAT

Producer Price Index (Jul) flat MoM; Applied Materials reports record Q3 after the close High vol

SPY and QQQ hit fresh records on the flat PPI print. AMAT posted $9.12B revenue (+25% YoY) and above-consensus Q4 guidance, per Schaeffer's — then sold off Friday regardless.

Fri Aug 14

RETL

Retail Sales (Jul): −0.6% MoM vs +0.1% est. — sharpest drop since May 2025 High vol

WSJ: vehicle sales fell 1.8%, online purchases fell 2.2%; some reflects Prime Day's shifted timing. SPY and QQQ slipped off Thursday's records.

Thu Aug 13

HORMUZ

Two ADNOC tankers attacked transiting the Strait of Hormuz

UAE called it an unprovoked Iranian attack; US reiterated its blockade threat same-day — oil finally moved, up 7.3% on the week.

This week

FOMC

July FOMC meeting minutes High vol

Bloomberg: the minutes will show an unusually visible split, with three dissents in favor of a quarter-point hike. BMO Capital Markets expects no rate move until late 2027.

This week

WMT/TGT/HD

Walmart, Target, and Home Depot report earnings High vol

Seeking Alpha: the consumer-earnings run headlines an otherwise quiet data week — the market's next direct read on whether Friday's retail-sales miss reflects real demand softening.

Sun Aug 16

HORMUZ

Gulf stock markets rise despite stalled Iran talks and disrupted Hormuz traffic

Reuters: peace talks show no progress and tanker traffic hasn't fully resumed, yet most Gulf bourses gained Sunday — a signal the region isn't pricing further escalation.

Flagged — unverified or single-sourced

Some of Friday's retail-sales drop reflects Prime Day's shifted timing rather than a clean demand read, per WSJ's caveat.
The Hormuz attack is reported via the UAE government's account and US/Reuters coverage; Iran has not corroborated or denied it.

AMD Jumps 6.5% Friday on AI Momentum While Oracle, CrowdStrike, and Palantir All Slide

Four names from the tofu-agent scanner's Aug 17 batch, each independently re-verified against real closes and primary news rather than republished as-is. One has a confirmed catalyst; the rest moved without a single clean news driver.

AMD — up 6.5% Friday and 6.1% for the week, priced $4.75B in new debt Thursday. Logo: Wikimedia Commons.

Oracle — down 3.7% Friday after a data-center gas pipeline slipped roughly six months, per The Motley Fool. Logo: Wikimedia Commons.

Fri Aug 14

AMD

AMD AMD +6.50%

$483.01 (Thu) → $514.39 (Fri), confirmed against FMP closes. No single Friday catalyst found — Motley Fool coverage ties the move to continued AI-hyperscaler demand momentum, alongside Thursday's $4.75B bond sale (more than triple its last offering). Best read as broad AI-momentum buying, not one event.

Fri Aug 14

ORCL

ORCL Oracle −3.65%

$156.22 (Thu) → $150.52 (Fri). Confirmed catalyst: Motley Fool reported a New Mexico natural-gas pipeline serving the Project Jupiter data-center campus will finish roughly six months late, delaying power for the site Oracle's cloud buildout depends on.

Fri Aug 14

CRWD

CRWD CrowdStrike −3.81%

$225.53 (Thu) → $216.95 (Fri). No Friday-specific news found. Seeking Alpha downgraded CRWD to Sell on Aug 13 over stretched valuation (38x forward sales); the stock still gained that day, so the downgrade alone doesn't explain Friday's drop. Unexplained — most likely tracked the same broad AI/tech pullback that hit AMAT and SMH.

Fri Aug 14

PLTR

PLTR Palantir −2.78%

$179.01 (Thu) → $174.04 (Fri). No single Friday catalyst found. GuruFocus flagged Palantir's $442B valuation "facing a test" the same day, after the stock had risen over 31% in the prior month — reads as profit-taking, not a discrete event. Unexplained as a same-day driver.

Bill Ackman, Pershing Square Capital Management

13F filing, disclosed Aug 13, 2026 — not a same-day price mover

Q2 13F showed a rebuilt Netflix stake, four years after exiting at a $400M+ loss, plus new Visa, Mastercard, and S&P Global positions. Seeking Alpha's Aug 16 recap: Ackman is targeting wide-moat, compressed-valuation names, rating Visa and Mastercard 10/10 on moat.

How this list is built

Source: tofu-agent market-mover scanner, Aug 17 batch. Confidence scores for these four signals ranged 0.14–0.30 (unexplained_move) — low, reflecting that the scanner's own discourse-signal match wasn't a real causal story for most of them.
Each name was individually re-verified against real FMP closes and searched for primary news — not run as the scanner's raw output. The scanner's "Discourse signal" headlines (e.g. a Motley Fool listicle mentioning AMD, a Ray Dalio portfolio piece mentioning ORCL) were not treated as causes; none held up as a real catalyst for the move.
Two of four names — CRWD and PLTR — are flagged "Unexplained": no primary-source catalyst was found for Friday's specific move, beyond broad valuation and profit-taking context. Only Oracle's move has a confirmed, cited catalyst.

A Soft-Landing Week Cracked on Its Last Day — This Week's Data Decides Whether It Was Noise

Two cool inflation prints built the rally; one weak retail-sales number gave part of it back. FOMC minutes and big-box earnings this week are the direct test of whether Friday's crack was real.

Cool inflation and weak spending are pulling the "soft landing" in opposite directions

CPI and PPI confirmed disinflation through Thursday; Friday's retail-sales miss raised the question they couldn't answer — cooling demand, or tamed inflation? This week's FOMC minutes, showing three dissents for a hike, and Walmart/Target/Home Depot earnings are the next test.

AMAT's selloff shows AI-adjacent names have stopped getting the benefit of the doubt

A record quarter and above-consensus guidance weren't enough. Reuters' same-day 13F coverage showing institutions trimming semiconductor exposure in Q2 is the more likely explanation.

Oil's reaction this week is the mirror image of last week's non-reaction

A blockade threat alone didn't move USO last week; an actual tanker attack did. The 7.3% gain marks Hormuz shifting from priced-in risk to an active one.

Gold and silver firming alongside a weak data print is the hedge trade re-engaging

Unlike last week's pullback on cooling-inflation relief, gold rose into Friday's miss — RSI at 63.2 tracks renewed hedge appetite now the soft-landing case shows a crack.

Friday's mover list shows the AI trade splitting into winners and question marks within the same session

AMD gained 6.5% on demand momentum while Oracle fell on a delayed data-center pipeline and CrowdStrike and Palantir slid without a clean catalyst — a reminder not every AI-adjacent move has the same driver, or any driver at all.

Nvidia doesn't report until Aug 26, but AMAT beating and still selling off suggests the market now demands AI-adjacent names justify already-rich valuations, not just beat — the same test Oracle and Palantir face this week.

Where This Leaves Positioning

SPY $776

Friday's close, down 0.20% but +0.40% for the week. Reclaiming Thursday's $777.88 record confirms the pullback was noise.

SMH $591

50-day average, now 0.62% above Friday's close after AMAT's selloff. A close below tests the post-July recovery.

GLD $401

Friday's close, up a second session as the retail-sales miss revived hedge demand. RSI 63.2 is the week's most stretched reading.

USO $120

50-day average, 5.2% below Friday's close after the 7.3% rally. Holding above keeps the Hormuz move intact.

USD/JPY ¥160

The yen approached but didn't clear this level all week. Japan remains on intervention watch per Bloomberg.

Retail sales weakness proves durable, not a one-off

The consumer crack widens instead of closing

If Walmart, Target, and Home Depot confirm Friday's miss wasn't just a Prime Day quirk, the soft-landing case needs a genuine growth scare added — a harder problem for the Fed than inflation alone.

Read-through: SPY tests $770, GLD extends toward $410, SMH breaks below its 50-day average.

FOMC minutes confirm the "hold" consensus

Friday's dip gets read as noise, not a new trend

If this week's minutes show a Fed comfortable with the data mix despite three dissents for a hike, Friday's pullback likely proves a one-day event — the market still closed last week higher despite it.

Read-through: SPY and QQQ reclaim Thursday's records, SMH holds its 50-day average, oil's gains hold if Hormuz stays contained.

Base case

Friday's retail-sales miss remains the market's freshest data point heading into a week that will test it directly — FOMC minutes showing a divided Fed, then Walmart, Target, and Home Depot earnings.

Equities: SPY (−0.20%) and QQQ (−0.14%) slipped Friday but closed last week up 0.40% and 1.11%. AMAT fell 5.1% despite a record quarter; AMD rose 6.5% on AI-demand momentum the same session — the AI trade split rather than moved as one block.

Commodities: oil rose 7.3% last week after Hormuz tanker attacks turned a standing threat into an active incident. Gulf markets still gained Sunday despite unresolved Iran talks — the region isn't pricing further escalation yet.

FX & rates: the yen held near ¥159.32, shy of ¥160, with Japan on intervention watch. The "hold, not cut" consensus now has to absorb a weaker consumer signal at this week's FOMC minutes.

The wildcard: whether Friday's miss was a Prime Day quirk or the first crack in the soft-landing case. Walmart, Target, and Home Depot earnings this week are the more direct test than any single data print could be.

—

Sources

U.S. Stocks Down After Retail Sales Data — WSJ, Aug 14 2026 Consumer Warning Lights — WSJ, Aug 14 2026 US Retail Sales Fall Most Since May 2025 After Solid Demand Run — Bloomberg, Aug 14 2026 Dow closes lower as Applied Materials leads semiconductor selloff — Invezz, Aug 14 2026 Applied Materials Stock Slides, Despite Solid Results — Investopedia, Aug 14 2026 Applied Materials Shrugs Off Revenue, Earnings Beat — Schaeffer's Research, Aug 13 2026 Applied Materials: The Selloff Is Ignoring The AI Equipment Boom — Seeking Alpha, Aug 14 2026 AMAT Q3 Earnings Call Focuses on AI Demand & FY27 Growth — Zacks, Aug 14 2026 Institutional investors reveal cautious approach to tech favorites in US quarterly 13F filings — Reuters, Aug 14 2026 Reddit Stock Surges on Landmark S&P 500 Entry — GuruFocus, Aug 14 2026 Why Reddit Stock Just Gained — The Motley Fool, Aug 14 2026 Why Broadcom (AVGO) Stock Is Sinking Today — TipRanks, Aug 14 2026 Broadcom Plunges 5% as Its AI Boom Faces a $370 Billion Financing Question — Yahoo Finance, Aug 14 2026 Broadcom Shares Plunge on Major VMware Security Threat — Yahoo Finance, Aug 14 2026 US eyes indefinite Iran naval blockade as oil supply shortfall deepens — BusinessWorld, Aug 14 2026 US warns Iran of indefinite naval blockade as Strait of Hormuz deadlock continues — Onmanorama, Aug 14 2026 Oil rises after US threatens indefinite blockade of Iran; set for weekly gains — Yahoo Finance, Aug 14 2026 Cool Inflation Data Propels Stocks to Fresh Records — WSJ, Aug 13 2026 Japan On Possible Yen Intervention Watch — Bloomberg Markets and Finance, Aug 13 2026 Nebius Group (NBIS) Stock Surges on Strong Q2 Earnings — StocksToTrade, Aug 12 2026 Nebius Group Q2 Revenue Jumps 454% YoY, Reaffirms 2026 Outlook — Seeking Alpha, Aug 12 2026 SanDisk Stock Jumps on Bullish Investor Day Guidance — TheStreet, Aug 13 2026 SanDisk Shares Rise on 9th-Gen Flash Technology With Kioxia — Yahoo Finance, Aug 14 2026 Pershing Square's Q2 13F Shows Rebuilt Netflix Stake, New Visa and Mastercard Positions — Barchart, Aug 13 2026 Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Buys Back Into Netflix Four Years After $400M Exit — Benzinga, Aug 13 2026 Bill Ackman Is Buying These 4 Stocks: I Ranked Their Moats — Seeking Alpha, Aug 16 2026 U.S. Stock Futures Little Changed as Investors Ponder the Fed's Next Move — MarketWatch, Aug 16 2026 Stock Futures to Begin Trading Ahead of Retail Earnings — Barron's, Aug 16 2026 Fed's Internal Rate Debate Faces New Scrutiny — Bloomberg Markets and Finance, Aug 16 2026 Most Gulf Bourses Gain Despite Stalled Iran Talks, Hormuz Disruption — Reuters, Aug 16 2026 Wall Street Week Ahead — Seeking Alpha, Aug 16 2026 What's Going on With AMD Stock? — The Motley Fool, Aug 15 2026 AMD Just Borrowed $4.75 Billion, More Than Triple Its Last Bond Sale — The Motley Fool, Aug 15 2026 Why Oracle Stock Got Trounced Today — The Motley Fool, Aug 14 2026 CrowdStrike: Priced For Perfection, Why Investors Should Take Profits Now — Seeking Alpha, Aug 13 2026 Palantir's $442 Billion Valuation Faces a Test — GuruFocus, Aug 14 2026 Price, RSI, and MACD data pulled from FMP, current through Friday Aug 14, 2026 close — the most recent completed trading session as of this Monday Aug 17 run; no new session had closed at publication. Economic-calendar and earnings-calendar data current as of Aug 17. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh confirmed current as of this run (sworn in May 22, 2026); Applied Materials CEO Gary Dickerson confirmed current via multiple Aug 2026 sources. Market Movers section built from the tofu-agent scanner's Aug 17 batch, independently re-verified — see that section for detail.