Week ahead: Nvidia Reports Wednesday After Six Straight Down Sessions, Down 4.7% Since Aug 13, With Options Pricing a 6% Move Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Delivers His First Jackson Hole Keynote Friday, Under Fresh Pressure From Bessent's Buybacks A 50% U.S. Tariff on Roughly $20 Billion of Canadian Imports Took Effect at 12:01am Monday After Weekend Talks Broke Down Friday's Close, Still the Freshest Data: S&P 500 +0.41%, but Down 1.37% for the Week as the 30-Year Yield Climbed Back to 5.27% Gold Closed the Week Up 5.45% to $423.36, RSI Near 71 and Overbought, as Debt and Inflation Fears Outran the Rate Story Oil Extended Its Rally to 6.35% for the Week on Stalled Iran Talks and Depressed Strait of Hormuz Tanker Traffic, per Seeking Alpha Shein Launches a Hong Kong IPO of Up to $1.8 Billion, Valuing the Retailer at as Much as $26.8 Billion This Week Also Brings GDP and a Key Inflation Reading Alongside Nvidia and Jackson Hole, per Barron's

Markets

Week Ahead

Nvidia Reports Wednesday After Six Straight Red Days, Warsh's Jackson Hole Debut Looms Friday, and a 50% Canada Tariff Opens the Week.

Friday's close remains the market's freshest data point, and it sets up a genuinely loaded week: the S&P 500 rose 0.41% Friday but still finished 1.37% lower on the week as the 30-year yield clawed back to 5.27%, undoing most of Wednesday's Treasury-buyback relief. Nvidia, down six straight sessions and 4.7% since Aug 13 to $214.72, reports Wednesday with options pricing in a roughly 6% move — the market's central single-stock event of the week, per Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Brunch preview. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote Friday under visible pressure from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's activist buyback stance, with GDP and a key inflation reading also on the calendar, per Barron's. The week opened with a fresh trade shock: a 50% U.S. tariff on roughly $20 billion of Canadian imports took effect at 12:01am Monday after weekend talks broke down, per Barron's. Gold and silver closed last week up 5.45% and 7.25% even as yields rose, oil extended its rally to 6.35% on the week on stalled Iran talks and depressed Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic, and Moderna's third straight whipsaw session — up 8.9% Friday — now has a confirmed catalyst: JPMorgan raised its price target on the stock from $40 to $77 that day, still rating it underweight.

By Lei Holdings Research

Friday, August 21, 2026 close, the most recent available — markets have not yet closed for the week of Aug 24 · Published Monday, August 24, 2026 · Published every weekday morning — see the full archive

SPY$765.72+0.41% Fri

QQQ$713.44+0.35% Fri

SMH$560.42−0.40% Fri

GLD$423.36+1.95% Fri

SLV$62.72+1.72% Fri

USO$134.64+0.07% Fri

USD/JPY¥158.97−0.04% Fri

New York Stock Exchange building on Wall Street — The S&P 500 closed last week 1.37% lower as Treasury's buyback relief faded and the 30-year yield climbed back to 5.27% — now the backdrop for a week headlined by Nvidia's Wednesday earnings and Warsh's Friday Jackson Hole debut. Photo: Wikimedia Commons.

Nvidia's Six-Session Losing Streak Sets Up Wednesday's Report, While the Chip Trade Stays Fractured Beneath SMH

Nvidia closed Friday at $214.72, its sixth straight down session and a 4.7% slide since Aug 13, with options pricing in a roughly 6% move around Wednesday's report, per Seeking Alpha. SMH itself closed last week down 4.66%, masking a sector still split three ways: storage kept bleeding, Marvell gave back most of Thursday's bounce, and Ross Stores' earnings beat gave retail its own bright spot heading into the report.

NVDA, Fri

−1.69%

NVDA, since Aug 13

−4.70%

SMH, WTD

−4.66%

SPY, WTD

−1.37%

What's driving the week

Six red days into the market's biggest single-stock event

Finbold: Nvidia has fallen six consecutive sessions heading into Wednesday's report, closing Friday at $214.72. MarketWatch frames the print as a test of whether Nvidia remains "the beating heart" of the AI trade as rivals capture more investor attention.

A cost side-effect of the AI boom

Nvidia customers face price hikes above 15% on next-gen chips

New York Post and 24/7 Wall St.: systems shipping in early 2027, including Vera Rubin and Grace Blackwell platforms, will carry price increases above 15% — a margin story investors will want addressed on Wednesday's call.

SMH · VanEck Semiconductor ETF

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $560.42

Peak $668.91 (Jun 22) → trough $504.22 (Jul 29) → $594.07 (Aug 17) → $569.77 Tue (−4.09%) → $560.92 Wed (−1.55%) → $562.65 Thu (+0.31%, a stabilization, not a third down day) → $560.42 Fri (−0.40%). Friday's close is 4.66% below last Friday's $587.82 week-to-date and roughly 4.9% below its 50-day average near $589. RSI sits at 45.7, MACD histogram has narrowed to about +0.17 from +2.14 Wednesday — momentum still fading, with $556-560 the nearest support before the July 29 trough near $504.

Nvidia reports Wednesday as the week's central catalyst, while Ross Stores' Friday earnings beat and raised guidance stand as the one unambiguous retail win heading into it.

Underneath SMH's 4.66% weekly decline, Friday split the sector three ways. Western Digital fell 3.74% to $459.44, its fourth decline in five sessions and now down roughly 14% since the prior Friday, as rising yields keep pressuring the memory-storage trade. Marvell gave back 6.08% of Thursday's 5.66% bounce, closing at $237.04 — round-tripping most of the week's Google-deal excitement as investors reassessed how much of that $12.2 billion custom-silicon deal is priced in. Nvidia's own six-session slide to $214.72 sits apart from the storage/custom-silicon dispersion story — a name-specific setup ahead of Wednesday, not a read on the sector.

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The 30-Year Yield Claws Back to 5.27% as Inflation Fears Undercut the Buyback Relief

Wednesday's Treasury-buyback relief didn't hold: the 30-year yield rose to 5.27% Friday from Wednesday's 5.19% low, per CNBC, as rising inflation breakevens offset the buyback bid — WSJ's headline put it plainly: "Bond Yields Rise Despite Treasury Efforts to Curb Borrowing Costs." Gold and silver kept climbing anyway, up 1.95% and 1.72% Friday and roughly 5.5% and 7.3% on the week, while oil held flat near its recent high.

GLD · SPDR Gold Shares

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $423.36

Up 1.95% Friday to $423.36, extending the week's rally to roughly 5.5% since last Friday's $401.48. Now 10.6% above its 50-day average near $383; RSI sits at 71.2, MACD histogram widened to about +3.14 — gold pushing further into overbought territory even as yields backed up, evidence the metals bid is now running on more than just the rate story.

USO · United States Oil Fund

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $134.64

Roughly flat Friday, up 0.07% to $134.64, capping a 6.35% weekly gain since last Friday's $126.60. About 12% above its 50-day average near $120; RSI holds near 61.6, MACD histogram at +1.02 — oil consolidating near its recent high rather than extending it.

Why yields backed up instead of holding Wednesday's relief

CNBC/WSJ: rising inflation breakevens offset Treasury's buyback bid, pushing the 30-year back to 5.27% Friday from Wednesday's 5.19% low

Schaeffers: July's FOMC minutes, released last week, showed growing support for a rate hike rather than a cut — adding to the yield pressure directly

MarketWatch: Bessent's activist Treasury moves are seen as undercutting Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's credibility ahead of his first Jackson Hole keynote this Friday

Why gold and silver kept climbing anyway

GLD rose 1.95% and SLV rose 1.72% Friday even as yields rose — an unusual pairing that suggests debt and inflation worries, not just rate direction, are now driving the metals bid

GLD's RSI at 71.2 is now solidly overbought after a week that took it 5.5% higher without a real pullback

Oil stayed flat, up just 0.07% Friday, suggesting the metals move is a debt/inflation-hedge story specifically rather than a broad commodity rally

USD/JPY

¥158.97

30Y yield

5.27%

GLD Fri

+1.95%

SLV Fri

+1.72%

The yen held roughly flat at ¥158.97 Friday, down 0.04% on the day and 0.22% on the week, as the dollar found little direction from the yield backup. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote this Friday under fresh pressure, per MarketWatch, with Bessent's buyback moves seen as competing with — rather than complementing — the Fed's own signaling. Oil's rally (+6.35% on the week) is tied to stalled Iran negotiations and severely depressed Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic, per Seeking Alpha's weekly market wrap, not just the dollar or rates.

What's on the Calendar This Week

The week opens with a fresh tariff shock and closes with Fed Chair Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote, with Nvidia's Wednesday report as the pivot point in between — Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Brunch calls the two events a straight fight for market sway.

Mon Aug 24

TRADE

50% U.S. tariff on Canadian imports takes effect High vol

Barron's: the tariff on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods took effect at 12:01am Monday after talks between Washington and Ottawa broke down late Friday night.

Mon Aug 24

SHEIN

Shein launches up to $1.8 billion Hong Kong IPO

Reuters: the fast-fashion retailer opened book building Monday for a Hong Kong listing valuing it at up to $26.81 billion.

Wed Aug 26

NVDA

Nvidia reports Q2 earnings High vol

Seeking Alpha: options price in a roughly 6% share move; the stock closed Friday at $214.72 after six straight down sessions, per Finbold. Motley Fool expects results to nearly double last year's Q2.

This week

GDP/CPI

GDP and a key inflation reading also land this week

Barron's: "Nvidia, Fed Confab, Inflation, GDP, and More to Watch This Week" — the data lands alongside Nvidia and Jackson Hole, both of which are more likely to move markets.

Fri Aug 28

FED

Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote High vol

Bloomberg: investors will watch how Warsh addresses inflation, market volatility, and Fed independence after Bessent's bond-market intervention raised questions about the boundary between fiscal and monetary policy.

Fri Aug 21

MRNA

Moderna's third straight whipsaw session, +8.9%, now with a confirmed catalyst

Defense World: JPMorgan raised its price target on Moderna from $40 to $77 Friday, still rating it underweight — trading volume rose 29% on the news.

Fri Aug 21

ROST

Ross Stores beats, raises outlook, jumps 4.4%

Investopedia: bargain-hunting shoppers drove sales; MarketBeat says the beat "flipped the off-price retail story" after TJX's Marmaxx miss.

Flagged — unverified or single-sourced

No new market close has occurred since Friday, Aug 21, as of this Monday-morning edition — this week's calendar items (tariff, Nvidia, Jackson Hole, GDP/CPI) are previews sourced from Barron's, Reuters, and Seeking Alpha reporting, not yet-realized price moves.
The Canada tariff's exact market impact was not independently confirmed against sector-level price data this run — sourced from Barron's single report; treat the scale ($20 billion of imports, 50% rate) as reported, not cross-verified against a second outlet.

Moderna's Rally Gets a Real Catalyst, and Tempus AI Rides the Same Cancer-Vaccine Data to a Third Straight Double-Digit Day

The regular tofu-agent scanner directory was unreachable this run (a filesystem permissions error, retried once), so this section was built entirely from independently verified FMP price data and news search rather than scanner-flagged tickers. Every move below is confirmed against FMP close-to-close data with a named, dated source for the catalyst.

Nvidia closed Friday at $214.72, its sixth straight down session, ahead of Wednesday's report — the week's single largest pending catalyst rather than a completed move. Logo: Wikimedia Commons.

Parliament Hill, Ottawa — A 50% U.S. tariff on roughly $20 billion of Canadian imports took effect at 12:01am Monday after weekend talks between Washington and Ottawa broke down, per Barron's. Photo: Saffron Blaze, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0.

Fri Aug 21

MRNA

MRNA Moderna +8.9%, third straight whipsaw session

$133.32 (Thu) → $145.13 (Fri), confirmed against FMP historical closes. Confirmed catalyst: Defense World reports JPMorgan raised its price target from $40 to $77 that day (still underweight-rated), driving a 29% jump in trading volume — a real analyst-driven move, not a repeat of Wednesday's trial data.

Fri Aug 21

TEM

Tempus AI +9.1%

$66.65 (Thu) → $72.69 (Fri), confirmed against FMP historical closes — its third straight double-digit-percent day, up from $51.64 the prior Monday. Confirmed catalyst: Motley Fool reports Tempus is acquiring a company whose technology aided Merck and Moderna's melanoma cancer-vaccine trial, tying its rally directly to that data.

Fri Aug 21

MRVL

Marvell Technology −6.1%

$251.01 (Thu) → $237.04 (Fri), confirmed against FMP historical closes — giving back most of Thursday's 5.66% bounce. No fresh company-specific news found Friday; read as profit-taking on the week's Google custom-silicon deal.

Fri Aug 21

WDC

Western Digital −3.7%

$469.05 (Thu) → $459.44 (Fri), confirmed against FMP historical closes — its fourth decline in five sessions, now down roughly 14% since the prior Friday. No fresh company-specific news found; consistent with the week's yield-pressure storage story.

Fri Aug 21

NVDA

Nvidia −1.7%, sixth straight down session

$216.85 (Thu) → $214.72 (Fri), confirmed against FMP historical closes — down 4.7% since Aug 13. Finbold flags the six-day losing streak heading directly into Wednesday's report; not yet a completed catalyst, but the setup for the week's biggest one.

How this list is built

Degraded input this run: the tofu-agent scanner directory (Obsidian vault, iCloud-synced) returned an "Operation not permitted" filesystem error on both a direct listing and a retry — no dated signal file for Aug 24 could be read. This section was built without scanner input as a result.
Every ticker above was sourced two ways: a close-to-close price move confirmed against FMP's historical-price-eod data, and a named, dated news catalyst confirmed via FMP news search. Nothing here is carried forward from a prior edition's mover list.
MRNA and TEM share the same underlying catalyst (the Merck/Moderna cancer-vaccine trial and its ripple into Tempus AI) but were verified independently against separate publishers — Defense World for MRNA, Motley Fool for TEM.

Three Unresolved Fights Converge This Week: Treasury vs. Fed, Tariffs vs. Growth, and Nvidia vs. Its Own Multiple

Last week's buyback relief bought Treasury only 48 hours before yields backed up again. This week doesn't resolve that fight — it adds two more: a fresh Canada tariff shock at the open, and Nvidia's report testing whether the AI trade can carry its own valuation into Warsh's Friday keynote.

The buyback relief lasted about 48 hours, and the fight carries into this week

The 30-year yield fell to 5.19% Wednesday on Treasury's buyback news but climbed back to 5.27% by Friday as rising inflation breakevens overwhelmed the bid — a fiscal lever that eased pressure without resolving what caused it, unresolved heading into Warsh's speech.

A new tariff shock lands before markets even open the week

Barron's: the 50% Canada tariff took effect at 12:01am Monday after weekend talks broke down — a fresh source of inflation and growth uncertainty landing in the same week the market is already parsing GDP and CPI data.

Nvidia's six-day slide sets up a binary Wednesday

Finbold: six straight down sessions and options pricing a 6% move mean Wednesday's report either confirms the AI trade's dispersion — Marvell, Western Digital, SMH's 4.66% weekly decline — or resets it entirely.

Gold and silver decoupled from the yield story by Friday

GLD and SLV kept climbing Friday even as yields rose — the opposite of Wednesday's pattern, when falling yields drove the metals bid. That shift suggests debt and inflation concerns, not rate direction alone, are now doing the work.

Oil's rally has a geopolitical driver, not a demand one

Seeking Alpha: stalled Iran negotiations and severely depressed Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic pushed WTI-linked oil roughly 5% higher last week — a supply-risk story distinct from the metals' debt-and-inflation bid.

Bessent's Treasury and Warsh's Fed are now visibly pulling in different directions

MarketWatch: the Treasury's activist buyback stance is seen as undercutting Warsh's credibility to set policy independently — a tension that carries directly into Friday's Jackson Hole speech unresolved.

Moderna's JPMorgan-driven rally and Tempus AI's cancer-vaccine spillover both sit outside this chain entirely — company-specific stories, not macro ones, and a reminder not every big move this week will trace back to rates, tariffs, or Nvidia.

Where This Leaves Positioning

SPY $766

Friday's close, up 0.41% but down 1.37% week-to-date from the prior Friday's $776.34. Reclaiming $776 would confirm the week's yield-driven pressure has fully cleared.

NVDA $215

Friday's close, down 1.69% on the session and its sixth straight decline, down 4.7% since Aug 13. Options price a roughly 6% move around Wednesday's report — a break either direction likely sets SMH's near-term trend.

SMH $560

Friday's close, down 4.66% week-to-date. A drop toward the July 29 trough near $504 would signal the pullback is deepening; holding the $556-560 area would suggest it's stalling ahead of Nvidia's report.

GLD $423

Friday's close, up 1.95% on the session and 5.45% on the week. RSI at 71.2 is now overbought — a pullback toward the 50-day average near $383 would be a healthy reset, not a trend break.

30Y yield 5.27%

Friday's close, up from Wednesday's 5.19% low as inflation breakevens rose. A move back above 5.30% would put the market back near pre-buyback stress levels heading into Warsh's Friday speech.

Nvidia disappoints and Warsh leans hawkish

The AI trade's dispersion widens and yields retest their highs

If Nvidia's Wednesday report misses on margin or demand commentary — the 15%+ chip price hikes are one flagged risk — and Warsh's Friday remarks lean hawkish, SMH's dispersion likely deepens, gold's overbought RSI corrects, and the Canada tariff's inflation impact compounds the yield pressure.

Read-through: SPY retests $755, SMH tests $530, NVDA breaks below $205, 30-year yield climbs above 5.30%.

Nvidia delivers and Warsh signals patience

The week's two binary events both resolve calmly

If Nvidia's report reassures on AI-capex demand and Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks avoid a hawkish surprise, SMH's six-day dispersion likely resolves upward, gold's rally can consolidate rather than reverse, and the tariff shock stays a sector-specific story rather than a market-wide one.

Read-through: SPY reclaims $776, SMH holds above $565, NVDA reclaims $225, 30-year yield settles in the 5.15-5.25% range.

Base case

Friday's close is still the freshest data point heading into a week with two genuine binary events — Nvidia's Wednesday report and Warsh's Friday Jackson Hole debut — layered on top of a fresh Canada tariff shock and last week's unresolved yield fight.

Equities: SPY (+0.41% Friday, −1.37% weekly) and QQQ (+0.35% Friday, −2.41% weekly) closed last week lower despite Friday's bounce. SMH (−4.66% weekly) masks real dispersion — Western Digital's fourth decline in five sessions and Marvell's 6.1% giveback — while Nvidia's own six-session slide to $214.72 sets up Wednesday's report as the week's central catalyst.

Commodities & rates: the 30-year Treasury yield closed the week at 5.27%, up from Wednesday's 5.19% low as rising inflation breakevens offset Treasury's buyback bid. Gold (+5.45% weekly) and silver (+7.25% weekly) kept climbing regardless, while oil (+6.35% weekly) extended its rally on stalled Iran talks and depressed Hormuz tanker traffic.

FX & policy: the yen held roughly flat at ¥158.97, down just 0.22% on the week. Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote Friday under visible pressure from Bessent's activist Treasury — a tension that's been building for weeks and comes to a head this Friday.

The wildcard: a 50% U.S. tariff on Canadian imports took effect at 12:01am Monday, adding a fresh inflation and growth variable in the same week as GDP and CPI data — on top of, not instead of, the Nvidia and Jackson Hole story. Moderna's JPMorgan-driven rally and Tempus AI's cancer-vaccine spillover are reminders some of this week's biggest moves will have nothing to do with any of it.

—

Sources

Nvidia, Fed Confab, Inflation, GDP, and More to Watch This Week — Barron's, Aug 23 2026 Stock Futures Could Reflect Unease With Trump's Tariff Fight With Canada — Barron's, Aug 23 2026 Fast Fashion Giant Shein Launches Up to $1.8 Billion Hong Kong IPO — Reuters, Aug 23 2026 Wall Street Brunch: Nvidia and Jackson Hole Vie for Market Sway — Seeking Alpha, Aug 23 2026 Wall Street Week Ahead — Seeking Alpha, Aug 23 2026 Rates Retake the Spotlight — Seeking Alpha, Aug 23 2026 Nvidia Stock Price Prediction After Six Straight Red Days — Finbold, Aug 23 2026 Nvidia Is the Beating Heart of the AI Boom and the Stock Market — MarketWatch, Aug 23 2026 Nvidia Customers Warned About AI-Related Price Hikes Above 15% on Chips — New York Post, Aug 23 2026 Fed Faces High Stakes Test at Jackson Hole — Bloomberg This Weekend, Aug 23 2026 The Treasury's Bond-Market Intervention Isn't Working. So What Comes Next? — MarketWatch, Aug 23 2026 Moderna Sees Large Volume Increase Following Analyst Upgrade — Defense World, Aug 22 2026 Why Tempus AI Skyrocketed This Week — Motley Fool, Aug 23 2026 Ross Stores Hikes Its Outlook as Bargain-Hunting Shoppers Drive Up Sales — Investopedia, Aug 21 2026 Ross Stores Just Flipped the Off-Price Retail Story After TJX's Marmaxx Miss — MarketBeat, Aug 21 2026 Here's How Bessent's Newly Activist Treasury Department Is Undercutting the Fed's Warsh — MarketWatch, Aug 21 2026 Price, RSI, and MACD data pulled fresh from FMP, current through Friday Aug 21, 2026 close — the most recent completed trading session as of this Monday, Aug 24, 2026 morning edition; markets have not yet closed for the new week. News and calendar data current as of Aug 23-24. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh confirmed current as of this run, cross-checked against Barron's, Bloomberg, and MarketWatch reporting on his Friday Jackson Hole keynote. All chart-data indicators (SMA50/200, RSI14, MACD) were independently recomputed from raw FMP OHLCV this run for SMH, GLD, and USO, not carried forward. Market Movers section built entirely from independently verified FMP price and news data this run — the tofu-agent scanner directory (Obsidian vault) returned an "Operation not permitted" filesystem error on both attempts and could not be read; see that section for full detail.