Week ahead: Nvidia Beat Wednesday — $96.2B Revenue, Q3 Guidance of $108B — and the Stock Is Holding Its After-Hours Pop Into Thursday Trading Near $219 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Delivers His First Jackson Hole Keynote Tomorrow, With the 30-Year Yield Already Down to Roughly 5.17-5.20% Marvell Reports After Today's Close — the Semiconductor Sector's Next Earnings Test, One Day After Nvidia's Abercrombie & Fitch Soared 35.7% Wednesday on a Beat, a Tariff Refund, and Raised Guidance Meta Settled Teen-Safety Litigation for $17 Billion — Far Below the $200 Billion States Sought — and Shares Rose 1.5% Alibaba Shares Stayed Pressured After a $10.2 Billion AI Share Placement, Even With Jack Ma Buying Alongside Executives SMH Stabilized Wednesday at $555.77 After Monday's Tariff-Driven Plunge, Still Down 0.83% Since Friday and Below Its 50-Day Average Gold Pulled Back 1.6% Wednesday to $421.32 as Yields Eased, Still Overbought With RSI Near 71

Markets

Week Ahead

Nvidia's Beat Holds Into Thursday, Chips Stabilize, and Warsh's Jackson Hole Debut Is the Week's Last Unresolved Event.

Wednesday's close is the most recent completed session: SPY finished at $766.08, essentially flat since last Friday, while Nvidia slipped 1.59% to $209.66 into its own report before the real story broke after the bell. Revenue of $96.2 billion beat estimates, EPS of $2.22 topped the roughly $2.09 consensus, and guidance of $108 billion for the next quarter implies about 89% year-over-year growth; shares jumped to $219.53 in after-hours trading and are holding near $218-219 in Thursday's session, up over 4% from Wednesday's close. SMH itself closed Wednesday at $555.77, down 0.83% since Friday but essentially flat over the past two sessions after Monday's tariff-driven plunge to $546.80 — a stabilization, not yet a rotation back into the trade. Marvell reports after today's close, the sector's next test one day behind Nvidia's. The 30-year yield has eased to roughly 5.17-5.20% from Friday's 5.27%, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote tomorrow. Wednesday's other movers: Abercrombie & Fitch soared 35.7% on a beat and raised guidance, Meta settled teen-safety litigation for $17 billion, and Alibaba stayed pressured after a $10.2 billion AI share placement despite Jack Ma buying alongside executives.

By Lei Holdings Research

Wednesday, August 26, 2026 close, the most recent completed session, with Thursday intraday levels noted where cited · Published Thursday, August 27, 2026 · Published every weekday morning — see the full archive

SPY$766.08+0.02% Wed

QQQ$711.37+0.09% Wed

SMH$555.77−0.01% Wed

GLD$421.32−1.58% Wed

SLV$61.59−1.17% Wed

USO$127.35+0.95% Wed

USD/JPY¥159.31+0.21% since Fri

Grand Teton mountain range as seen from Jackson Lake Lodge, Wyoming — The Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium runs Aug 27-29 in the shadow of the Tetons — Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first keynote as chair tomorrow, now the week's last unresolved event after Nvidia's Wednesday beat. Photo: National Park Service, Wikimedia Commons.

Nvidia's Beat Sticks, SMH Stabilizes, and Marvell's Own Report Lands Today

Nvidia's Wednesday-after-close report — $96.2 billion revenue, $2.22 EPS, $108 billion Q3 guidance — reversed a session that had closed down 1.59% at $209.66. Shares jumped to $219.53 after hours and are holding near $218-219 Thursday, over 4% above Wednesday's close. SMH itself closed Wednesday at $555.77, down 0.83% since Friday but flat versus Tuesday, stabilizing after Monday's tariff-driven drop to $546.80.

NVDA, Wed

−1.59%

NVDA, Thu (intraday)

+4.4%

SMH, since Fri

−0.83%

SPY, since Fri

+0.05%

What actually happened

A beat-and-raise that erased the six-day slide's shadow

Bloomberg: CFO Colette Kress signaled strong fiscal 2028 sales growth, easing fears the AI-spending boom was losing momentum. Nasdaq 100 futures rose about 1% Thursday morning on the print, alongside a new AWS deal for 2 million additional GPUs and Jensen Huang's $18 billion equity-investment pledge.

Today's follow-on test

Marvell reports after today's close

24/7 Wall St.: Marvell closed Wednesday up 1.97% to $245.11 ahead of its own report, with analysts raising targets on its custom AI-chip partnership with Google — the sector's second earnings test in two days.

SMH · VanEck Semiconductor ETF

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $555.77

Friday $560.42 → Monday $546.80 (−2.43%, tariff shock) → Tuesday $555.82 (+1.65%) → Wednesday $555.77 (−0.01%), essentially unchanged and 0.83% below Friday's close. Now roughly 5% below its 50-day average near $585. RSI sits at 43.0, MACD histogram at −1.47 — momentum still negative, not yet confirming a rotation back into the trade even with Nvidia's beat. $546-550 is the nearest support from Monday's low.

Nvidia's beat is in the books; Marvell's report after today's close is the semiconductor sector's next data point on whether the AI-capex story extends beyond one name.

SMH's stabilization is real but shallow — three sessions of near-flat closes after a sharp Monday drop, not a re-rotation. RSI at 43 and a negative MACD histogram both sit below where they stood a week ago, even with Nvidia's beat validating the demand story overnight. Broadcom slipped roughly 2% Wednesday to $360.49 ahead of its own early-September print, a reminder the sector's earnings calendar — not just Nvidia's — is what will determine whether chips actually rotate back into favor.

Jensen Huang

CEO, Nvidia

Pledged $18 billion in additional equity investment for the rest of fiscal 2027 alongside Wednesday's report, a signal read as reinforcing Nvidia's own confidence in AI-capex demand into fiscal 2028.

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Yields Ease Toward 5.17-5.20% Into Warsh's Debut as Gold Pulls Back From Overbought

The 30-year yield has drifted down to roughly 5.17-5.20% from Friday's 5.27%, per Trading Economics, ahead of Warsh's Friday keynote. Gold gave back some of last week's overbought run, falling 1.58% Wednesday to $421.32, while oil bounced 0.95% to $127.35 after a sharp Monday-Tuesday drop tied to the same tariff and rate moves.

GLD · SPDR Gold Shares

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $421.32

Friday $423.36 → Monday $426.69 (+0.79%) → Tuesday $428.07 (+0.32%, a fresh high) → Wednesday $421.32 (−1.58%), the first real pullback in two weeks. Still 9.4% above its 50-day average near $385; RSI eased to 71.4 from a Tuesday peak but remains overbought. MACD histogram narrowed to +2.68 from over +3 last week — momentum cooling, consistent with Wednesday's pullback rather than a trend break.

USO · United States Oil Fund

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $127.35

Friday $134.64 → Monday $132.21 (−1.81%) → Tuesday $126.15 (−4.58%, its sharpest drop in weeks) → Wednesday $127.35 (+0.95%), a modest bounce. Down 5.41% since Friday overall. Still roughly 6% above its 50-day average near $120; RSI fell to 63.1 from over 70, MACD histogram flipped to −0.01 — the rally that ran through mid-August has clearly stalled.

Why yields eased into Warsh's speech

Trading Economics: the 30-year yield held near 5.17% Thursday, down from Friday's 5.27% high, as markets positioned ahead of Warsh's first keynote as Fed Chair

Babypips/Regards of Wall Street: Warsh's speech comes three weeks before the September FOMC meeting, with markets pricing roughly one-in-three odds of a rate hike — the July minutes showed a 9-3 split, the widest in two decades

Nvidia's beat also eased broader risk-off pressure that had been feeding into the bond market through Wednesday's session

Why gold and oil both pulled back Wednesday

GLD fell 1.58% and SLV fell 1.17% Wednesday as the 30-year yield eased — the metals bid unwinding somewhat as the debt-and-inflation fear premium moderates

GLD's RSI at 71.4 remains overbought even after Wednesday's pullback — a healthy reset, not a reversal, given the two-week run that preceded it

USO's MACD histogram turning negative signals its own mid-August rally has run out of momentum independent of gold's move

USD/JPY

¥159.31

30Y yield

~5.17-5.20%

GLD Wed

−1.58%

USO Wed

+0.95%

The yen weakened slightly to ¥159.31, up 0.21% since Friday, as the dollar found modest support from easing yields and Nvidia's beat. Warsh's Friday Jackson Hole keynote is now the week's last unresolved event — his review of the Fed's 2020 average-inflation-targeting framework, with 15 external experts due to report by year-end, is a second storyline traders are watching alongside the immediate rate signal.

What's Left on the Calendar

Nvidia's report is resolved; Warsh's Jackson Hole keynote tomorrow is now the week's only remaining binary event, alongside Marvell's report tonight and the GDP/inflation data still to land.

Kevin Warsh

Chair, Federal Reserve

Delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chair tomorrow, three weeks ahead of the September FOMC meeting, where markets price roughly one-in-three odds of a rate hike after a 9-3 split July vote.

Wed Aug 26

NVDA

Nvidia beats, guides Q3 revenue to $108B Resolved

Revenue $96.2B and EPS $2.22 both beat consensus; shares jumped to $219.53 after hours and are holding those gains Thursday, per Bloomberg's markets wrap.

Thu Aug 27

MRVL

Marvell reports after today's close High vol

Stockanalysis.com: shares closed Wednesday up 1.97% to $245.11 ahead of the print, with analysts raising targets on the Google custom-silicon partnership.

Fri Aug 28

FED

Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chair High vol

Regards of Wall Street: the speech runs alongside the Aug 27-29 Kansas City Fed symposium; his review of the Fed's inflation-targeting framework, due by year-end, is a second storyline beyond the immediate rate signal.

This week

GDP/CPI

GDP and a key inflation reading still to land

Barron's previewed both alongside Nvidia and Jackson Hole as the week's data points most likely to move markets; neither has been confirmed released as of Wednesday's close.

Wed Aug 26

ANF

Abercrombie & Fitch soars 35.7% on a beat and tariff refund

Stockanalysis.com: EPS of $4.17 crushed the $1.97 estimate; guidance for full-year EPS of $13.10-13.60 versus $10.40 consensus, plus a $100 million tariff refund, per 24/7 Wall St.

Wed Aug 26

META

Meta Platforms +1.5%

Confirmed against Benzinga's Wednesday coverage. Confirmed catalyst: a $17 billion settlement with 29 states over teen social-media addiction claims, far below the $200 billion states had sought — removing a litigation overhang rather than signaling new growth.

Wed Aug 26

BABA

Alibaba stays pressured, still over 5% below its pre-deal close

Bloomberg: shares fell roughly 10% Monday after pricing a $10.2 billion AI-focused share placement; Jack Ma and senior executives bought shares Wednesday but the stock did not fully recover, per Bloomberg's follow-up.

Wed Aug 26

MRVL

Marvell Technology +1.97%

$240.38 (Tue) → $245.11 (Wed), confirmed against stockanalysis.com closes. Confirmed catalyst: analysts raising price targets ahead of tonight's earnings report, tied to Marvell's custom-silicon partnership with Google.

Wed Aug 26

NVDA

Nvidia −1.59% into the print, then +4.71% after hours

$213.05 (Tue) → $209.66 (Wed regular close) → $219.53 (after-hours), confirmed against stockanalysis.com. Confirmed catalyst: Q2 revenue of $96.2 billion and Q3 guidance of $108 billion, per Bloomberg's markets wrap — a name-specific resolution, not a sector-wide move yet.

How this list is built

Degraded input again this run: the tofu-agent scanner directory (Obsidian vault, iCloud-synced) returned "Resource deadlock avoided" and "EDEADLK" errors on every dated Aug 26 file attempted — no scanner signal could be read. This section was built entirely without scanner input, same as the prior edition's Aug 21 run.
Every ticker above was sourced two ways: a close-to-close price move confirmed against stockanalysis.com or a comparable public price source, and a named, dated news catalyst confirmed via web search. Nothing here is carried forward from a prior edition's mover list.
Broadcom (down roughly 2% Wednesday to $360.49 ahead of its own early-September report) was considered but excluded — its move was smaller and its catalyst (positioning ahead of an earnings date weeks out) was weaker than the five names listed above.

One Binary Event Resolved, One Left: Nvidia Validated the AI Trade, but SMH Hasn't Followed Yet

Nvidia's beat removed the week's single biggest downside risk, but SMH's own stabilization is shallow — RSI still under 50, MACD histogram still negative. Warsh's Friday keynote is now the one genuinely unresolved event left, with yields already drifting lower ahead of it.

Nvidia's beat resolved the week's central risk, but SMH hasn't confirmed a rotation

Shares jumped 4.71% after hours on the print, yet SMH closed Wednesday essentially flat and still 0.83% below Friday, with RSI at 43 and a negative MACD histogram — the ETF's broader indicators haven't caught up to the single-name relief.

Marvell's report tonight is the next real test of sector breadth

24/7 Wall St.: Marvell rose 1.97% Wednesday ahead of its own print, with analysts citing its Google custom-silicon deal — a second data point that will show whether Nvidia's beat extends to the rest of the chip trade.

Yields eased into Warsh's keynote rather than climbing toward it

The 30-year yield drifted to roughly 5.17-5.20% from Friday's 5.27% high — the opposite direction from the pattern in prior weeks, when yield pressure built ahead of major Fed events rather than easing.

Gold and oil both pulled back from overbought levels the same day

GLD fell 1.58% and USO's MACD histogram turned negative Wednesday — both consistent with easing yields and a broader unwind of the debt-and-inflation fear premium that had driven both higher through mid-August.

Abercrombie's beat and Meta's settlement are both idiosyncratic, not macro

A 35.7% earnings-driven surge and a litigation settlement both trace to company-specific events rather than the rate or AI-capex story — reminders not every large move this week connects to Nvidia, tariffs, or Warsh.

Alibaba's share-placement fallout shows dilution risk still weighs on AI-capex names outside the U.S.

Bloomberg: shares stayed pressured even after Jack Ma and executives bought in — a contrast with Nvidia's own capex signal (Huang's $18 billion pledge) landing as a vote of confidence rather than a dilution concern.

The tariff and Fed-independence tensions flagged in Monday's edition haven't resolved — they've just been overshadowed by Nvidia's report. Warsh's Friday speech still has to address a 9-3 split FOMC vote and yields near multi-year highs, even with Wednesday's modest easing.

Where This Leaves Positioning

SPY $766

Wednesday's close, up 0.02% on the session and essentially flat (+0.05%) since Friday. A push toward $775+ would confirm Nvidia's beat is broadening into the wider index rather than staying name-specific.

NVDA ~$218

Wednesday's regular close was $209.66 (−1.59%); after-hours and Thursday trading near $218-219 mark a roughly 4-4.5% gain holding into the session. Sustaining above $215 through Friday would confirm the reaction has staying power.

SMH $556

Wednesday's close, down 0.83% since Friday but flat over the past two sessions. A push back above $565 would signal a real rotation into chips; a slip back toward Monday's $547 low would say Nvidia's beat isn't lifting the sector.

GLD $421

Wednesday's close, down 1.58% on the session — the first real pullback in two weeks. RSI at 71.4 is still overbought; a further slide toward the 50-day average near $385 would be a healthy reset.

30Y yield ~5.17-5.20%

Down from Friday's 5.27% ahead of Warsh's Friday speech. A move back above 5.25% into or after the speech would signal markets read his remarks as hawkish; holding below 5.20% would suggest the opposite.

Warsh leans hawkish and Marvell disappoints

Nvidia's relief proves isolated rather than sector-wide

If Marvell's report tonight misses and Warsh's Friday remarks signal openness to a September hike given the 9-3 FOMC split, SMH's stabilization likely reverses, yields retest 5.27%+, and gold's pullback deepens toward its 50-day average.

Read-through: SMH retests $545, 30-year yield climbs back above 5.27%, GLD tests $410, NVDA's gains fade below $210.

Marvell confirms and Warsh signals patience

Nvidia's beat becomes a sector-wide rotation

If Marvell's report reinforces the AI-capex demand story and Warsh avoids a hawkish surprise, SMH's RSI likely climbs back above 50, yields stay near or below 5.17%, and the week closes with chips confirmed back in favor rather than just one name.

Read-through: SMH reclaims $570, 30-year yield holds below 5.17%, NVDA sustains above $220, SPY pushes toward $775.

Base case

Nvidia's Wednesday beat resolved the week's biggest single risk, but SMH's technicals haven't confirmed a rotation — Marvell's report tonight and Warsh's Friday keynote are what's left to decide whether chips and rates both turn, or just one name did.

Equities: SPY (+0.02% Wed, +0.05% since Fri) and QQQ (+0.09% Wed, −0.29% since Fri) are essentially unchanged this week. SMH (−0.83% since Fri) has stabilized after Monday's tariff-driven drop but RSI at 43 and a negative MACD histogram show the sector hasn't confirmed Nvidia's beat yet — Marvell reports tonight.

Commodities & rates: the 30-year yield eased to roughly 5.17-5.20% from Friday's 5.27% ahead of Warsh's keynote. Gold (−1.58% Wed) and oil (−5.41% since Fri) both pulled back from overbought and mid-August-rally levels respectively, consistent with easing rate and risk pressure.

FX & policy: the yen weakened modestly to ¥159.31, up 0.21% since Friday. Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote tomorrow, three weeks ahead of a September FOMC decision where a 9-3 split July vote leaves real uncertainty about the path forward.

The wildcard: Abercrombie's 35.7% earnings surge and Meta's $17 billion settlement are both idiosyncratic wins; Alibaba's share-placement fallout is a reminder dilution risk still weighs on AI-capex names outside Nvidia's own balance sheet. None of the three connect to the rate or chip story directly.

—

Sources

Nasdaq Futures Rise on Bullish Nvidia Sales Growth — Bloomberg Markets Wrap, Aug 26-27 2026 Nvidia Earnings on August 26: What History Tells Us — Motley Fool, Aug 25 2026 Nvidia Snaps Skid to $213 Ahead of Earnings — Vantage Markets, Aug 26 2026 NVDA Historical Prices — Stockanalysis.com, accessed Aug 27 2026 SMH Historical Prices — Stockanalysis.com, accessed Aug 27 2026 GLD Historical Prices — Stockanalysis.com, accessed Aug 27 2026 USO Historical Prices — Stockanalysis.com, accessed Aug 27 2026 U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bond Yield — Trading Economics, accessed Aug 27 2026 Jackson Hole 2026: All Eyes on Warsh — Babypips, Aug 26 2026 Jackson Hole 2026: Dates, Schedule, and Warsh's First Speech as Fed Chair — Regards of Wall Street, Aug 2026 Abercrombie and Fitch's Q2 CY2026: Beats on Revenue, Stock Jumps — StockStory, Aug 26 2026 Abercrombie & Fitch Soars on a $100M Tariff Refund and Raised Guidance — 24/7 Wall St., Aug 26 2026 Meta Reaches $17 Billion Settlement With Dozens of States — Yahoo Finance, Aug 26 2026 What Is Going on With Meta Platforms Stock on Wednesday? — Benzinga, Aug 26 2026 Jack Ma's Buying Does Little to Ease Alibaba Share Sale Fallout — Bloomberg, Aug 26 2026 Alibaba Plunges After Announcing $10.2 Billion Share Placement — CNBC, Aug 24 2026 Marvell Falls 4% Ahead of August 27 Earnings, Broadcom Slips — 24/7 Wall St., Aug 24 2026 Price, RSI, and MACD data pulled fresh via WebSearch/WebFetch from stockanalysis.com and comparable public sources (no FMP tool available this run), current through Wednesday Aug 26, 2026 close, the most recent completed session — with select Thursday Aug 27 intraday levels noted and labeled as such. News and calendar data current as of Aug 26-27. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh confirmed current as of this run via Regards of Wall Street's Jackson Hole 2026 schedule; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent not directly re-verified this run as he was not a featured actor in this edition's reporting. All chart-data indicators (SMA50/200, RSI14, MACD) were independently recomputed this run for SMH, GLD, and USO by appending fresh Aug 24-26 OHLCV to the existing dataset and recalculating the full series, not carried forward. Market Movers section built without tofu-agent scanner input — the Obsidian vault directory returned "Resource deadlock avoided" / "EDEADLK" filesystem errors on every dated file attempted for Aug 26; see that section for full detail.