Week ahead: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole Keynote Friday Called Inflation Still Too High, Sending September Rate-Hike Odds to 66% From 40% a Week Ago, per CME FedWatch The 10-Year Yield Topped 4.75% Monday, Its Highest Since January 2025, While the 30-Year Held at 5.21% US and Iran Exchanged Fire Monday for the First Time Since July After Their 60-Day Truce Negotiating Window Expired, per Bloomberg Oil Jumped 3.1% Monday to $133.70 as Brent Crossed $90, With Gulf Flows Still at Roughly Two-Thirds of Prewar Levels Gold Fell 3.3% Friday on the Hawkish Fed Read Before Steadying Monday; GLD Is Down 3.5% Since Last Friday's Close SMH Rose 0.64% Monday Even as SPY Fell 0.30% — Chips Held Up Better Than the Broader Tape Marvell Closed Down 10.3% Friday at $216.62, Resolving Last Week's Beat-but-Fall Reaction on Soft Fiscal 2028 Guidance The Yen Breached ¥160 to the Dollar Monday, Putting Japanese Authorities Back on Intervention Watch, per Bloomberg

Markets

Week Ahead

Warsh's Hawkish Jackson Hole Turn Sends Rate-Hike Odds to 66%, US and Iran Trade Fire, and Chips Hold Up Better Than the Broader Tape

Monday was the most recent completed session, and it was shaped by two stories that emerged after Friday's Jackson Hole keynote. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told the symposium Friday that underlying inflation "has not improved" and that the Fed has "work to do," sending the 10-year Treasury yield to a post-January-2025 high above 4.75% Monday and CME FedWatch's odds of a September rate hike to 66%, up from roughly 40% before he spoke. Separately, the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire Monday for the first time since July after a 60-day truce-negotiating window lapsed, with U.S. Central Command striking targets on Iran's Larak Island and Iran retaliating against bases in the UAE and Jordan, per Bloomberg. Oil jumped accordingly — USO rose 3.08% Monday to $133.70 as Brent crossed $90 a barrel — while gold and silver, already down sharply Friday on Warsh's hawkish read, mostly steadied Monday. The one bright spot: SMH rose 0.64% Monday to $556.63 even as SPY fell 0.30%, a rare session where chips outperformed the broader tape during a risk-off day. Today's ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10 a.m. ET, due after publication, is the week's next data point ahead of Friday's jobs report.

By Lei Holdings Research

Monday, August 31, 2026 close, the most recent completed session · Published Tuesday, September 1, 2026 · Published every weekday morning — see the full archive

SPY$767.05−0.30% Mon

QQQ$716.76+0.05% Mon

SMH$556.63+0.64% Mon

GLD$408.42−0.11% Mon

SLV$60.13+0.18% Mon

USO$133.70+3.08% Mon

USD/JPY¥160.10Breached ¥160

US Navy amphibious assault ship transiting the Persian Gulf — The U.S. and Iran exchanged fire Monday for the first time since July, reviving Strait of Hormuz supply-risk concerns and pushing oil up more than 3% on the session. Photo: U.S. Navy / MC Seaman Chad R. Erdmann, Wikimedia Commons (public domain).

Chips Outperform a Falling Tape as Marvell's Post-Earnings Slide Finally Resolves

SPY fell 0.30% Monday to $767.05 on the Iran escalation, and QQQ was roughly flat at +0.05%. SMH bucked both, rising 0.64% to $556.63 — a session where semiconductors held up better than the broader market rather than leading it lower, a reversal from Friday's post-Warsh sell-off that had dragged SMH down 3.48% to $553.11.

SPY, Mon

−0.30%

SMH, Mon

+0.64%

SMH, Fri

−3.48%

MRVL, Fri close

−10.28%

Loose end from last week, resolved

Marvell's after-hours stumble became a 10.3% Friday rout

Marvell fell 7.6% in Thursday after-hours trading, then closed Friday's regular session down 10.28% at $216.62. Record $2.74 billion revenue wasn't the issue — investors focused on softer fiscal 2028 guidance and a lack of detail on timing for its Google chip deal, per Yahoo Finance.

What actually happened Monday

Chips decoupled from the Iran-driven risk-off move

SMH's 0.64% Monday gain came on a day the Dow fell 0.7% and SPY fell 0.30% on oil-driven risk aversion — a single session, not yet a confirmed rotation, but a notable divergence after chips had been the market's most volatile group all month.

SMH · VanEck Semiconductor ETF

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $556.63

Thursday $573.00 → Friday $553.11 (−3.48%, post-Warsh selling) → Monday $556.63 (+0.64%). RSI eased to 46.2 from 51.4; the MACD histogram sits at −0.76, negative but no longer widening — momentum has flattened rather than deteriorated further. The 50-day average has slipped to $580.60; a close above $585 would still be needed to confirm a durable rotation, with $547 the nearest support.

Nvidia, Salesforce, and CrowdStrike — last week's three earnings winners — mostly held their post-beat gains through Friday's broad sell-off and Monday's Iran-driven session, even as Marvell gave back all of its post-earnings credibility. The dispersion inside the chip trade that 24/7 Wall St. flagged in late August — with Micron, Intel, and packaging names outrunning Nvidia itself for parts of the month — is still the more useful lens than a single SMH print.

Kevin Warsh

Chair, Federal Reserve

Warsh's Friday Jackson Hole remarks — that the Fed has "work to do" on inflation — are the reason chips and the broader tape sold off Friday and rates re-priced higher; equities are still digesting that shift through Monday's session.

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Warsh's Hawkish Turn Hits Gold Hard, and Iran Escalation Sends Oil Above $90 Brent

The 10-year Treasury yield topped 4.75% Monday, its highest since January 2025, after Warsh's Friday remarks pushed September rate-hike odds to 66%. Gold absorbed most of the damage Friday and mostly steadied Monday, while oil jumped as the U.S. and Iran traded fire for the first time since July.

GLD · SPDR Gold Shares

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $408.42

Thursday $422.60 → Friday $408.89 (−3.25%, hawkish-Fed selloff) → Monday $408.42 (−0.11%), down 3.5% since last Friday's close. RSI dropped to 54.2 from 66.7; the MACD histogram flipped negative, to −0.36 from +2.11, ending the two-week rally. $404 is the nearest support, $415 the nearest resistance.

USO · United States Oil Fund

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $133.70

Thursday $130.01 → Friday $129.70 (−0.24%) → Monday $133.70 (+3.08%, U.S.-Iran exchange of fire), up 3.1% since last Friday's close. RSI climbed to 58.5 from 54.3; the MACD histogram turned positive again, to +0.09 from −0.12. $130 is the nearest support, $135 the nearest resistance from mid-August's high.

Why gold and rates re-priced after Warsh's speech

The 10-year yield topped 4.75% Monday, its highest since January 2025, and the 30-year held at 5.21%, both up after Warsh said underlying inflation "has not improved" and the Fed has "work to do," per the Washington Post

CME FedWatch puts September rate-hike odds at 66% as of August 31, up from roughly 40% before the speech and 57% Friday, per Forbes — core PCE running near 3.7% year-over-year is the underlying driver

Gold fell below $4,450/oz Monday on the hawkish repricing, per Reuters wire coverage cited in market reports, extending Friday's drop rather than reversing it

Why oil jumped on the Iran exchange of fire

Bloomberg: U.S. Central Command struck targets on Iran's Larak Island Monday; Iranian state media reported retaliatory strikes on U.S.-linked bases in the UAE and Jordan — the first exchange of fire since July

A 60-day U.S.-Iran truce-negotiating window, agreed in June, technically expired Monday; Trump said he would not try to revive the stalled talks, per wire reports

Gulf oil flows remain at roughly two-thirds of prewar levels, near 15 million barrels a day — the Strait of Hormuz risk premium is back in the price without a confirmed supply disruption yet

USD/JPY

¥160.10

10Y yield

4.75%+

GLD, since Fri

−3.53%

USO, since Fri

+3.08%

The yen breached ¥160 to the dollar Monday, up from ¥159.43 last Thursday, as the hawkish Fed repricing widened the U.S.-Japan rate gap. Bloomberg reports strategists see the next intervention triggers as close as ¥161, with a heavier zone at ¥162-163 — a reminder that Tokyo's record two-day, roughly $85 billion intervention in late July only bought time rather than reversing the trend.

ISM Manufacturing Lands Today, With Jobs and CPI the Bigger Tests Ahead of the Sept. 16 Fed Decision

Warsh's keynote is now resolved and repriced into markets. What's left is a run of data: today's ISM Manufacturing PMI, Friday's August jobs report, and CPI on September 11 — all landing before the Fed's September 15-16 meeting, where futures now price a 66% chance of a hike.

Fri Aug 28

FED

Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chair Resolved

Said underlying inflation "has not improved" and the Fed has "work to do," per the Washington Post — avoided explicit forward guidance but sharpened his inflation warning enough to move futures markets.

Fri Aug 28

MRVL

Marvell closes down 10.28% Resolved

Closed at $216.62 after Thursday's 7.6% after-hours drop, per Yahoo Finance — soft fiscal 2028 guidance and unclear Google-deal timing outweighed the record revenue print.

Mon Aug 31

USO

U.S. and Iran exchange fire Resolved

First exchange since July, per Bloomberg; oil jumped more than 3% and the 60-day truce-negotiating window lapsed the same day.

Tue Sep 1, 10am ET

ISM

August ISM Manufacturing PMI Pending

Due today, after this edition's publication — the next data point markets will use to handicap the Fed's September 15-16 decision.

Fri Sep 4

NFP

August jobs report High vol

The week's bigger catalyst — a soft print would complicate the case for a hike Warsh's speech just made more likely.

Fri Sep 11

CPI

August CPI, the last major print before the Fed meeting

Lands five days before the September 15-16 FOMC decision, where a hike is now roughly a coin flip per CME FedWatch.

Flagged — unverified or single-sourced

Today's ISM Manufacturing PMI had not yet been released as of this edition's publication; treat any pre-release commentary as forward-looking, not confirmed.
The Fed's 66% September hike probability is a CME FedWatch futures-implied estimate as of Aug 31 close, not a forecast — it will move with each data print between now and September 16.

Energy Majors Lead Monday's Tape on the Iran Exchange of Fire, While Marvell's Slide Finally Bottoms Out

The tofu-agent scanner directory was unreadable again this run — every dated Aug 30 file returned "Resource deadlock avoided" / EDEADLK filesystem errors from the iCloud-synced Obsidian vault, confirmed across Read, cat, and cp attempts, the same failure mode as the past two editions. This section was built entirely from independently verified price data and dated news sources instead.

Chevron and Exxon Mobil both rose Monday as U.S. strikes on Iran pushed WTI crude toward $86 a barrel, per 24/7 Wall St.

Mon Aug 31

CVX

Chevron +1.86%

Confirmed catalyst: U.S. strikes on Iranian targets pushed WTI toward $86 a barrel Monday, lifting Chevron alongside the broader energy complex, per 24/7 Wall St.

Mon Aug 31

XOM

Exxon Mobil +1.70%

Same catalyst as Chevron — the U.S.-Iran exchange of fire and resulting oil-price jump, confirmed via 24/7 Wall St.'s same-day coverage.

Mon Aug 31

HAL

Halliburton +2.5%+

Oilfield-services names outran the integrated majors Monday morning as crude spiked — direction confirmed via CNBC premarket coverage; exact regular-session close percentage not independently re-verified this run.

Fri Aug 28

MRVL

Marvell −10.28%, closing at $216.62

Resolves last week's flagged "beat but fell" reaction: soft fiscal 2028 guidance and no clarity on Google-deal timing, per Yahoo Finance, outweighed a record $2.74 billion revenue quarter.

Mon Aug 31

SMH

SMH +0.64% on a day SPY fell 0.30%

Confirmed against the ETF's own close data. No single company-specific catalyst found for the divergence — flagged as a notable one-day pattern, not a confirmed rotation.

How this list is built

Degraded input again this run: the tofu-agent scanner directory (Obsidian vault, iCloud-synced) returned "Resource deadlock avoided" and "EDEADLK" errors on every dated Aug 30 file attempted, tested via three separate tools (Read, cat, cp) — no scanner signal could be read, the same failure mode as the prior two editions.
Every ticker above was sourced two ways where possible: a close-to-close price move and a named, dated news catalyst confirmed via search. Nothing here is carried forward from a prior edition's mover list.
Halliburton's move is flagged partial-confidence: the premarket percentage is confirmed via CNBC, but the regular-session close was not independently re-verified against a primary price feed this run.

A Hawkish Fed and a Hot Middle East Are Now Pulling in the Same Direction — Higher Rates, Higher Oil

Last week's question was whether earnings growth was intact; it was. This week's question is harder — whether a Fed moving toward a hike and an oil shock from a live Iran conflict compound each other into a genuine growth risk, or resolve independently by mid-September.

Oil-driven inflation makes Warsh's job harder, not easier

A geopolitical oil spike is exactly the kind of supply-side inflation the Fed can't offset by hiking — yet it lands the same week Warsh already flagged inflation as the Fed's top concern, raising the odds policymakers lean hawkish anyway.

Gold's failure to catch a safe-haven bid is the tell

GLD fell Friday and only stabilized Monday despite live U.S.-Iran fire — normally a haven catalyst. Instead, the hawkish-rate story dominated the metal's price action, a sign markets are treating this as a rates event first, a war-risk event second.

Chips' one-day resilience is the opposite of what a "risk-off" day usually produces

SMH's 0.64% Monday gain against a falling SPY breaks the pattern from earlier in August, when chip-sector crowding amplified every broad-market move. One session isn't a trend, but it's worth watching against Friday's data.

The yen's ¥160 breach adds a second currency-intervention risk to the week

A widening U.S.-Japan rate gap, now reinforced by higher U.S. yields post-Warsh, pushed USD/JPY through a level Tokyo has defended before — a possible source of cross-asset volatility independent of the Fed or Iran headlines.

Marvell's resolution removes one loose end, but the "beat isn't enough" bar is still live

Marvell's fall from record revenue to a 10.3% Friday drop confirms last week's flagged pattern — guidance and forward visibility, not the current quarter, are what the market is pricing across the chip complex.

Three separate data prints now stand between here and the Fed's decision

Today's ISM, Friday's jobs report, and September 11's CPI will each move the 66% hike probability before the September 15-16 meeting — a wider, longer window for repricing than last week's single-event setup.

The Fed-independence tension flagged in prior editions hasn't resolved — Warsh's speech put him more clearly at odds with the White House's preference for lower rates, per reporting on the speech's political reception, and that friction is now layered on top of a live Middle East conflict.

Where This Leaves Positioning

SPY $767

Monday's close, down 0.30% on the session on Iran-driven risk aversion. A slip below $765 would signal the selloff is broadening past oil-sensitive names; a reclaim of $771 (last Friday's level) would signal the move has stalled.

SMH $557

Monday's close, up 0.64% after Friday's 3.48% post-Warsh drop. A close above the 50-day average near $581 would confirm the Monday resilience is more than a single session; $547 remains the nearest support.

10Y yield 4.75%+

Topped this level Monday, the highest since January 2025, after Warsh's hawkish Friday remarks. A push toward 4.85% into the jobs report would confirm the hike is being priced as more likely than not; a pullback below 4.70% would suggest the market thinks Warsh overcorrected.

USO $134

Monday's close, up 3.08% on the U.S.-Iran exchange of fire. A push through $135 (mid-August's high) would confirm the geopolitical premium is building; a fade back below $130 would suggest Monday's spike was a one-day reaction.

GLD $408

Monday's close, down 3.53% since last Friday on the hawkish-Fed repricing. RSI at 54.2 has cooled sharply from Wednesday's overbought reading — a hold above $404 keeps the broader uptrend intact; a break below opens a retest of the prior base near $386.

Iran conflict escalates further while the Fed stays hawkish

Stagflation-style pressure builds into the FOMC meeting

If Gulf oil flows are actually disrupted rather than just threatened, USO could push well past $135 while a hike still looks likely on inflation grounds — a combination that hurts equities on both the growth and discount-rate side at once.

Read-through: USO clears $140, 10-year yield holds above 4.75%, SPY retests $760, GLD fails to hold $404.

Data prints cool both stories before the Fed meets

Hike odds fade and the oil premium unwinds

If Friday's jobs report is soft enough to complicate the hike case, and the Iran exchange doesn't escalate into an actual supply disruption, both the rate and oil shocks could partially reverse before September 16.

Read-through: USO fades back below $130, 10-year yield slips below 4.65%, SPY reclaims $775, GLD stabilizes above $410.

Base case

Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole turn and a fresh U.S.-Iran exchange of fire are now pulling markets in the same direction — higher rates, higher oil — with three data prints between here and the Fed's September 16 decision to say whether that combination holds or fades.

Equities: SPY (−0.30% Mon) and QQQ (+0.05% Mon) mostly held their ground Monday despite the Iran headlines. SMH (+0.64% Mon) outperformed both after Friday's sharper 3.48% post-Warsh drop — a divergence worth tracking, not yet a confirmed rotation.

Commodities & rates: the 10-year yield topped 4.75% Monday, its highest since January 2025, after Warsh pushed September hike odds to 66%. Oil jumped 3.08% (USO) on the U.S.-Iran exchange of fire, while gold is down 3.53% since last Friday on the same hawkish repricing.

FX & policy: the yen breached ¥160 to the dollar Monday, putting Tokyo back on intervention watch per Bloomberg. Today's ISM print, Friday's jobs report, and September 11's CPI are the remaining data between here and the Fed's September 15-16 meeting.

The wildcard: Marvell's resolution to a 10.3% Friday decline confirms last week's flagged pattern — guidance now matters more than the current quarter across the chip complex, a bar that hasn't lowered even as chips outperformed Monday's broader tape.

—

Sources

Fed Chair Warsh, Concerned About Inflation, Says Bank May Have 'Work to Do' — The Washington Post, Aug 28 2026 Kevin Warsh Sharpens Inflation Warning at Jackson Hole, Signaling Possible Rate Hike — CNBC, Aug 28 2026 Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq End Week on Down Note as Rate-Hike Bets Jump — Yahoo Finance, Aug 28 2026 CME FedWatch Provides a 66% Chance Fed Will Hike Rates in September — Forbes, Aug 31 2026 Treasury 10-Year Yield Tops 4.75%, Highest Since January 2025 — Bloomberg, Aug 31 2026 Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Slip but Cap Winning Month for Stocks — Yahoo Finance, Aug 31 2026 Oil Prices Surge Higher as US and Iran Exchange Fire for First Time in a Month — Yahoo Finance, Aug 31 2026 Oil Extends Advance as US-Iran Escalation Revives Hormuz Risks — Bloomberg, Aug 31 2026 Chevron and Exxon Mobil Rise 3% as U.S. Strikes on Iran Push WTI Crude Oil to $86 — 24/7 Wall St., Aug 31 2026 Gold Slides 3%, Silver 4% as Warsh Lifts Rate Bets — Rio Times, Aug 31 2026 Yen's Breach of 160 to Dollar Puts Traders on Intervention Watch — Bloomberg, Aug 31 2026 Stock Market Today, Aug. 28: Marvell Slides 10% on Softer Fiscal 2028 Guidance and Google Deal Timing — Yahoo Finance, Aug 28 2026 Marvell Shares Drop 7.6% After Hours Even as Revenue Hits Record $2.74 Billion — TS2 Tech, Aug 27 2026 Forget SMH and Its 87% Year: Three Semiconductor Funds Did Much Better — 24/7 Wall St., Aug 27 2026 Price, RSI, and MACD data pulled fresh via WebSearch/WebFetch (stockanalysis.com historical EOD data) current through Monday Aug 31, 2026 close, the most recent completed session; FMP tools were unavailable this run. News current as of Aug 27-31. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh re-verified this run as the correct sitting Fed Chair via multiple dated news sources, not carried forward from a prior edition. All chart-data indicators (SMA50/200, RSI14, MACD) were recomputed this run for SMH, GLD, and USO by appending Aug 28 and Aug 31 OHLCV to the existing 140-day series and recalculating the full EMA/Wilder-based indicator set, not carried forward as stale values. Market Movers section built without tofu-agent scanner input — the Obsidian vault directory returned "Resource deadlock avoided" / "EDEADLK" filesystem errors on every dated file attempted for Aug 30, tested via three separate tools; see that section for full detail.