Week ahead: Fed Governor Christopher Waller Said Thursday He'd Back Holding Rates Steady Barring an Inflation Surprise, Sending Fed-Hike Odds to 50.4% From 63.2% a Day Earlier, per WSJ The Dow Added More Than 600 Points and SPY Rose 1.05% to $773.17 Thursday, Its Strongest Close of the Week, per the New York Post Nvidia Agreed to Buy Hugging Face for $12.93 Billion, Its Second-Largest Deal Ever, Pushing Beyond Chips Into AI Software, per the Motley Fool Broadcom Fell 2.7% Thursday Despite Beating Estimates and Lifting Its Fiscal 2028 AI Revenue Target to $230 Billion — the Third "Beat Isn't Enough" Case in Two Weeks After Marvell and Palo Alto Networks The 10-Year Yield Slipped to 4.77% From 4.79%, and USD/JPY Dropped 1.6% to ¥156.07, Its Steepest Slide Since Monday's ¥160 Breach GLD Rose 1.85% to $410.22 and SLV Rose 2.51% to $60.55 as Falling Yields Outweighed Softer Rate-Hike Odds; USO Closed Little Changed at $142.09 Vice President JD Vance Separately Said the Fed "Should" Cut Rates, Adding Political Pressure Alongside Waller's Shift, per CNBC Friday's August Jobs Report, Due at 8:30am and Not Yet Released as This Publishes, Is the Week's Last and Biggest Catalyst

Markets

Week Ahead

Fed's Waller Sparks a 600-Point Dow Rally as Nvidia Buys Hugging Face for $12.9 Billion and Broadcom Becomes the Third "Beat Isn't Enough" Casualty

Thursday was the most recent completed session, and it reversed the week's rate story in a single day: Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he'd back holding rates steady barring an inflation surprise, sending fed-funds-futures odds of a September hike down to 50.4% from 63.2% a day earlier, per WSJ. The Dow added more than 600 points and SPY rose 1.05% to $773.17, its best close of the week. Nvidia agreed to buy Hugging Face for $12.93 billion — its second-largest deal ever — pushing beyond chips into AI software, while Broadcom fell 2.7% despite beating Q3 estimates and lifting its fiscal 2028 AI revenue target to $230 billion, the third "beat isn't enough" case in two weeks after Marvell and Palo Alto Networks. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 4.77% and USD/JPY dropped 1.6% to ¥156.07, its steepest one-day slide since Monday's ¥160 breach. Gold and silver caught a bid on the lower-yield backdrop — GLD rose 1.85% to $410.22 and SLV rose 2.51% to $60.55 — while USO closed little changed at $142.09 after an intraday pullback. Friday's August jobs report, due at 8:30am and not yet released as this publishes, is the week's last and biggest catalyst.

By Lei Holdings Research

Thursday, September 3, 2026 close, the most recent completed session · Published Friday, September 4, 2026 · Published every weekday morning — see the full archive

SPY$773.17+1.05% Thu

QQQ$717.67+1.19% Thu

SMH$552.60+0.39% Thu

GLD$410.22+1.85% Thu

SLV$60.55+2.51% Thu

USO$142.09+0.67% Thu

USD/JPY¥156.07−1.63% Thu

Facade of the New York Stock Exchange — The Dow added more than 600 points Thursday after Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled he'd back holding rates steady, the sharpest one-day shift in rate-hike odds this week. Photo: Wikimedia Commons (public domain).

Waller's Dovish Pivot Lifts the Whole Tape, but Broadcom Shows the AI Trade Still Has a Guidance Bar to Clear

SPY rose 1.05% Thursday to $773.17 and the Dow added more than 600 points after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he'd back holding rates steady. SMH rose a more modest 0.39% to $552.60 — Nvidia's Hugging Face deal and Broadcom's post-earnings drop pulled the sector in opposite directions.

SPY, Thu

+1.05%

SMH, Thu

+0.39%

NVDA, Thu

+1.80%

AVGO, Thu

−2.74%

The session's dominant story

Waller's rate-steady signal does more for the tape than any single earnings print

Waller said he'd be "inclined to support" holding rates steady barring a surprise in upcoming inflation data, per MarketWatch. Fed-funds futures pricing a September hike fell to 50.4% from 63.2% a day earlier, and the Dow gained more than 600 points, per WSJ and the New York Post.

The pattern extends to a third name

Broadcom fell 2.7% despite raising its AI revenue target to $230 billion

CEO Hock Tan told investors Broadcom has line of sight to $230 billion in AI semiconductor revenue by fiscal 2028 — four times this year's figure — and raised the fiscal 2027 target to $115 billion. Shares still fell on a fiscal Q4 guide that missed consensus, per Proactive Investors and Seeking Alpha, joining Marvell and Palo Alto Networks in the "beat isn't enough" column.

SMH · VanEck Semiconductor ETF

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $552.60

Tuesday $545.22 → Wednesday $550.48 (+0.96%, Dell read-through) → Thursday $552.60 (+0.39%, Nvidia's Hugging Face deal offsetting Broadcom's slide). RSI ticked up to 45.7 from 44.8; the MACD histogram improved slightly to −1.10 from −1.37 but stayed negative for a fifth session. The 50-day average has fallen further to $575.36; $547 remains the nearest support.

Nvidia's $12.93 billion purchase of Hugging Face — its second-largest deal on record — is a bet on AI software and open-source distribution, not just chips, CEO Jensen Huang said in a blog post cited by the Motley Fool. MarketWatch framed it as Nvidia "taking back control of the AI trade" as the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF closes in on its May peak. Oracle, down about 25% year to date per GuruFocus, reports its own fiscal Q1 on September 10, the next test of whether AI-capex enthusiasm extends past hardware and chip suppliers.

NVDA buys Hugging Face for $12.93B

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From Lei Holdings Our latest investment thesis — curated valuations, fundamentals, and technicals on a name we think the market is mispricing — is up for members. Read it on Patreon →

Waller's Rate-Steady Signal Pulls the 10-Year Down and Sends the Yen and Gold in Opposite Directions From Wednesday

The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.77% Thursday from 4.79%, and USD/JPY dropped 1.6% to ¥156.07 after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he'd back holding rates steady. Gold and silver caught a bid on the lower-yield backdrop, while oil closed little changed after an intraday pullback.

GLD · SPDR Gold Shares

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $410.22

Tuesday $396.75 → Wednesday $402.78 (+0.77%) → Thursday $410.22 (+1.85%, Waller's rate-steady comments), up 0.3% since last Friday's close. RSI climbed to 54.9 from 50.2; the MACD histogram improved to −2.16 from −2.35 but is still negative for a fourth session. $396 is the nearest support, $415 the nearest resistance.

USO · United States Oil Fund

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $142.09

Tuesday $141.00 → Wednesday $141.15 (+0.11%) → Thursday $142.09 (+0.67%), up 9.6% since last Friday's close despite Reuters and the New York Post both reporting an intraday pullback as lower yields eased pressure on oil prices. RSI is 66.4, up from 65.6; the MACD histogram widened to +1.15 from +0.97, the strongest momentum reading in this dataset. $135 is support, with $145 the next resistance.

Why gold and silver caught a bid

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he'd be "inclined to support" holding rates steady barring an inflation surprise, pulling the 10-year yield down to 4.77% from 4.79%, per MarketWatch

Fed-funds futures pricing a September hike fell to 50.4% from 63.2% a day earlier, reversing much of the hawkish repricing from Wednesday's Williams comments, per WSJ

Vice President JD Vance separately said the Fed "should" lower rates to help housing affordability, adding political pressure alongside Waller's shift, per CNBC

Why oil didn't follow yields lower

The New York Post reported oil prices eased intraday alongside yields as Waller's comments reduced broader macro risk premia, a pullback from the week's Iran-driven highs

USO still closed higher on the session and remains up 9.6% since last Friday — this week's supply-risk premium from renewed U.S.-Iran strikes hasn't fully unwound

The MACD histogram on USO is now at its most positive reading in this dataset, suggesting the week's momentum is still intact even after Thursday's intraday give-back

USD/JPY

¥156.07

10Y yield

4.77%

GLD, since Fri

+0.33%

USO, since Fri

+9.55%

The yen's 1.6% drop Thursday is its steepest one-day move since Monday's ¥160 breach, underscoring how fast a single Fed comment can move the rate-differential trade in either direction this week. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's prediction that the Strait of Hormuz would stop mattering to global oil within two years, made at the G20 finance chiefs meeting and reported by 24/7 Wall St., remains a long-run argument that hasn't changed this week's price action.

Waller and Broadcom Resolve Thursday's Swing Factors as Friday's Jobs Report Becomes the Week's Final Catalyst

Waller's rate-steady signal and Broadcom's earnings reaction resolved this week's two biggest Thursday swing factors. What's left: Friday's August jobs report (not yet released as this publishes), Oracle's September 10 earnings, CPI on September 11, and a Trump-Xi summit in Washington expected later this month — all ahead of the Fed's September 15-16 meeting.

Wed Sep 2

DELL

Dell surges up to 16% on a $95B AI backlog Resolved

Revenue up 58% to $47 billion, beating the $46 billion consensus; raised full-year guidance, per Zacks — lifted the broader tape into Wednesday's close.

Thu Sep 3

FED

Waller signals he'd back holding rates steady Resolved

Fed-funds futures pricing a September hike fell to 50.4% from 63.2% a day earlier; the Dow added more than 600 points, per WSJ and the New York Post.

Thu Sep 3

AVGO

Broadcom falls 2.7% despite raising its AI outlook Resolved

CEO Hock Tan guided to $230 billion in fiscal 2028 AI revenue, four times this year's figure, per the Motley Fool — shares still fell on a soft fiscal Q4 guide.

Thu Sep 3

NVDA

Nvidia agrees to buy Hugging Face for $12.93B Resolved

Its second-largest deal ever, expanding into AI software and open-source distribution beyond chips, per the Motley Fool and Investopedia.

Fri Sep 4

NFP

August jobs report High vol

Due at 8:30am and not yet released as this publishes. Consensus centers on a gain of roughly 53,000-58,000 jobs, per CNBC — the week's last and biggest catalyst ahead of the September 15-16 FOMC meeting.

Thu Sep 10

ORCL

Oracle reports fiscal Q1 2027 after the close

Shares are down roughly 25% year to date, per GuruFocus; CNBC frames the print as a test of whether AI-capex enthusiasm extends beyond hardware and chip suppliers.

Fri Sep 11

CPI

August CPI, the last major print before the Fed meeting

Lands five days before the September 15-16 FOMC decision.

Sep, TBD

GEO

Trump-Xi summit expected in Washington

CNBC reports the meeting comes after Treasury Secretary Bessent unveiled a plan to target Iran's "enablers" with secondary sanctions — some China watchers have low expectations for a breakthrough.

Flagged — unverified or single-sourced

The Trump-Xi summit date has not been formally announced; CNBC and other outlets describe it as expected in September, not confirmed for a specific day.
Friday's August jobs report had not been released as of this report's data pull; consensus figures cited (53,000-58,000) are forecasts, not results.

Coinbase Rides the Waller Crypto Rally, Ciena Becomes the Fourth "Beat Isn't Enough" Name, and Axon Moves Without a Catalyst

The tofu-agent scanner surfaced five tickers for Thursday's session — AXON, CIEN, COIN, CRWD, HPE — and this time the dated files were readable. Each was independently verified against real close-to-close price data and dated news; one (AXON) had no matching catalyst and is flagged as unexplained rather than forced into a narrative.

Coinbase and CrowdStrike were Thursday's clearest sector-driven winners — crypto on Waller's dovish pivot, cybersecurity on Fal.Con momentum.

Thu Sep 3

COIN

Coinbase +10.1% close-to-close

Confirmed catalyst: Investor's Business Daily reported Waller's rate comments sparked a "powerful Bitcoin, crypto rally" Thursday; 24/7 Wall St. separately noted Coinbase spiked alongside a stablecoin-regulation rerating in Circle Internet the same morning.

Thu Sep 3

CIEN

Ciena −10.4% close-to-close despite a beat

Confirmed catalyst: fiscal Q3 EPS of $2.11 beat the $1.74 estimate and revenue rose 37% YoY on AI-driven cloud demand, per Zacks — but in-line Q4 guidance "overshadowed" the beat, per 24/7 Wall St., a fourth "beat isn't enough" case alongside Marvell, Palo Alto Networks, and Broadcom.

Thu Sep 3

CRWD

CrowdStrike +5.7% close-to-close

Confirmed catalyst: CrowdStrike's Fal.Con conference news flow (an Anthropic Claude Marketplace integration, new agentic-identity and supply-chain security products) coincided with bullish analyst forecasts and a broader cybersecurity-sector rally following PANW's print, per Benzinga and Schwab Network.

Wed Sep 2

HPE

HPE +5.0% close-to-close on an AI-server beat

Confirmed catalyst: an AI-server demand beat MarketWatch described as following "in Dell's footsteps" — Schwab Network noted the stock reaction was more muted than peers despite strong numbers.

Thu Sep 3

AXON

Axon +6.1% close-to-close Unexplained

No matching catalyst found: the only dated Axon news was a Motley Fool insider-sale filing (its president sold $9.6 million in stock on August 31), which does not explain a same-week rally. Flagged as unexplained rather than attributed to a weak match.

How this list is built

The tofu-agent scanner directory (Obsidian vault, iCloud-synced) was readable this run, surfacing AXON, CIEN, COIN, CRWD, and HPE as Sep 4-dated candidate files.
Every ticker's move was recomputed close-to-close from FMP historical EOD data (not the scanner's own percentage, which can diverge) and cross-checked against dated news search. Where no dated catalyst matched the move, that is stated explicitly rather than forced.
HPE's move is dated to Wednesday Sep 2 (its earnings session) rather than Thursday, since that is when the confirmed catalyst occurred.

One Fed Governor's Comment Reversed the Week's Rate Story, but the "Beat Isn't Enough" Pattern Just Kept Extending

Waller's dovish signal did more to move markets Thursday than any single earnings print — it pulled yields lower, weakened the dollar, and lifted gold, silver, and equities together. But underneath that reversal, the pattern of premium-multiple beats getting sold anyway just claimed a fourth name in two weeks, and oil's supply-risk premium hasn't actually unwound.

One Fed governor's comment moved more assets at once than a week of earnings

Waller's remark cut hike odds to 50.4% from 63.2% in a day, dragging the 10-year to 4.77%, the yen down 1.6%, and lifting SPY, GLD, and SLV together — a reminder how much of this week's price action is rate-narrative, not fundamentals-driven.

The "beat isn't enough" pattern is now four-for-four across premium-multiple names

Marvell, Palo Alto Networks, Broadcom, and now Ciena have all delivered beats or raised guidance and sold off anyway — a market pricing perfection into anything trading at a rich multiple, regardless of sector.

Nvidia's Hugging Face deal is a bet that the AI trade needs a software layer, not just more chips

MarketWatch framed the move as Nvidia "taking back control of the AI trade" — a signal the market's AI narrative is broadening past pure hardware capex even as SMH's own trend indicators stay negative.

Oil didn't follow yields lower, meaning this week's supply-risk premium is still intact

USO's MACD histogram hit its most positive reading in this dataset even as broader risk premia eased — the U.S.-Iran strike risk priced in earlier this week hasn't unwound just because the rate story flipped dovish.

The yen's 1.6% drop shows how fast Monday's ¥160 breach can reverse on a single data point

Waller's comments did in one session what Wednesday's soft ADP print only started — a reminder that Friday's jobs report could move USD/JPY, gold, and equities together again in either direction.

Fed officials are still sending genuinely conflicting signals into a live decision

Waller's rate-steady comment came two sessions after NY Fed's John Williams said he was "opening options" to a hike — with Vice President Vance separately pushing for cuts, the September 15-16 decision remains unsettled, not a formality.

The Fed-independence tension flagged in prior editions hasn't resolved — Trump-aligned officials like Vance continue to publicly push for lower rates while other Fed officials signal openness to a hike within the same week, per CNBC and Barron's — and Friday's jobs report is now the single data point most likely to settle which camp is right.

Where This Leaves Positioning

SPY $773

Thursday's close, up 1.05% on Waller's rate-steady signal, the tape's best session of the week. A push above $775 would confirm the rally has legs into Friday's jobs report; a slip below $765 would suggest the bounce was a one-day rate-narrative move.

SMH $553

Thursday's close, up 0.39%, but the 50-day average has fallen further to $575 and the MACD histogram, while less negative, stayed in negative territory for a fifth session. A close back above $560 is needed before price and trend agree; $547 remains the nearest support.

10Y yield 4.77%

Thursday's level, down from 4.79% Wednesday after Waller's comments. A drop below 4.70% on a soft NFP print would confirm the dovish repricing; a bounce back above 4.85% would suggest Friday's jobs number came in firm enough to revive hike odds.

USO $142

Thursday's close, up 9.6% since last Friday despite an intraday pullback as broader risk premia eased. A push through $145 would confirm the supply-risk premium is still building; a fade back below $135 would suggest this week's Iran-driven gains are unwinding.

GLD $410

Thursday's close, up 1.85% on the lower-yield backdrop, with the MACD histogram improving to −2.16 from −2.35 but still negative. A close back above $415 would confirm the bounce is turning the trend; a slip below $396 reopens the prior base near $386.

Friday's jobs report comes in soft and confirms Waller's dovish read

Hike odds keep fading and Thursday's rally extends

If payrolls land near or below the 53,000-58,000 consensus, fed-funds futures could push September hike odds well below Thursday's 50.4%, extending the rally in equities, gold, and silver while pressuring the dollar further.

Read-through: 10-year yield falls below 4.70%, USD/JPY extends toward ¥154, SPY clears $780, GLD holds above $410.

Friday's jobs report surprises firm and revives September hike odds

Thursday's dovish repricing partially reverses

A payrolls beat would cut against Waller's rate-steady framing and could quickly push hike odds back above 60%, unwinding Thursday's yield decline and pressuring the same assets — gold, silver, and equities — that rallied on the dovish read.

Read-through: 10-year yield reclaims 4.85%, USD/JPY rebounds toward ¥159, SPY retests $765, GLD fails to hold $405.

Base case

Waller's rate-steady signal did more for the tape Thursday than any single earnings report, pulling yields and the dollar lower and lifting stocks, gold, and silver together — but Friday's jobs report, not released as this publishes, is the data point that decides whether that repricing holds into the September 15-16 Fed meeting.

Equities: SPY (+1.05% Thu) and the Dow (+600 points) posted their best session of the week on Waller's comments. Nvidia's $12.93 billion Hugging Face deal broadened the AI narrative beyond chips, while Broadcom (−2.7%) and Ciena (−10.4%) extended the "beat isn't enough" pattern to four names in two weeks.

Commodities & rates: the 10-year yield fell to 4.77% from 4.79% as fed-funds futures cut September hike odds to 50.4% from 63.2%. Oil (USO) stayed up 9.6% since last Friday despite an intraday pullback, while gold and silver both caught a bid on the lower-yield backdrop.

FX & policy: the yen fell 1.6% to ¥156.07, its steepest move since Monday's ¥160 breach. Friday's jobs report, Oracle's September 10 earnings, and September 11's CPI remain the last data points before the Fed's September 15-16 meeting.

The wildcard: Coinbase's 10.1% rally on Waller-driven crypto buying, alongside Axon's unexplained 6.1% move, are reminders that not every Thursday mover traces back to the Fed story — some of the day's action was sector- or idiosyncratic-driven even on a macro-dominated day.

—

Sources

New Doubts Emerge About Whether Fed Will Raise Interest Rates This Month — MarketWatch, Sep 3 2026 U.S. Stocks Rise as Waller Comments Weigh on Yields, Ease Rate Fears — WSJ, Sep 3 2026 Dow Jumps 580 Points, Treasury Yields and Oil Prices Ease as Fed Governor Signals No Rate Hike — New York Post, Sep 3 2026 Stocks, Bonds Rally After Dovish Fed Comments — WSJ, Sep 3 2026 Nvidia's $12.93 Billion Hugging Face Deal Expands Jensen Huang's AI Platform Beyond Chips — Motley Fool, Sep 3 2026 Nvidia Takes Back Control of the AI Trade as Big Tech Nears Record Highs — MarketWatch, Sep 3 2026 Broadcom's AI Outlook Draws Mixed Market Reaction — Proactive Investors, Sep 3 2026 Hock Tan Just Put a $230 Billion Number on Broadcom's 2028 AI Revenue — Motley Fool, Sep 3 2026 Broadcom Tripled AI Chip Sales and the Stock Still Fell — 24/7 Wall St., Sep 3 2026 Ciena Corporation Tumbles 10% as In-Line Guidance Overshadows Earnings Beat — 24/7 Wall St., Sep 3 2026 Fed Rate Comments Spark Powerful Bitcoin, Crypto Rally — Investor's Business Daily, Sep 3 2026 Circle Internet Surges 14% as Coinbase Spikes 10% — 24/7 Wall St., Sep 3 2026 CrowdStrike to Rally Over 15%? Top Analyst Forecasts — Benzinga, Sep 3 2026 Insider Alert: Axon President Sells $9.6 Million in Stock — Motley Fool, Sep 3 2026 HPE Follows in Dell's Footsteps as It Rides the AI Server Boom to a Big Earnings Beat — MarketWatch, Sep 2 2026 Vance Says Fed Should Lower Interest Rates: "Would Be Nice to Have Some Help" — CNBC, Sep 3 2026 August 2026 Jobs Report: Payrolls Projected Up 53,000 — CNBC, Sep 3 2026 Oracle Is Down 25%. Jefferies Says the Worst May Be Priced In — GuruFocus, Sep 2 2026 Trump and Xi Are Set to Meet in DC. Why Some China Watchers Have Low Expectations — CNBC, Sep 2 2026 Price, RSI, and MACD data pulled fresh via FMP historical EOD tools, current through Thursday Sep 3, 2026 close, the most recent completed session (FMP's real-time "quote" endpoint required a plan upgrade this run; historical chart, forex, and treasury-rate endpoints remained available and were used instead). News current as of Sep 2-4; Friday's August jobs report had not been released as of this report's data pull. All chart-data indicators (SMA50/200, RSI14, MACD) were recomputed this run for SMH, GLD, and USO from a freshly pulled OHLCV series through Sep 3, not carried forward as stale values. Market Movers section built using tofu-agent scanner tickers (AXON, CIEN, COIN, CRWD, HPE) — the scanner directory was readable this run; every ticker's move was independently recomputed from close-to-close price data and cross-checked against dated news, with one (AXON) flagged as unexplained.