Week ahead: The Nasdaq Composite Closed at a Second Straight Record, 27,244.28, Up 0.45%, While the S&P 500 Finished Flat and the Dow Fell 0.36% SMH Rose 1.92% to $607.46, Its Highest Close Since July 10, for a Two-Day Gain of 6.01%; Sandisk Jumped 6.82% on a New Buy Rating With a $2,400 Target Oil Fell a Fifth Straight Session, USO Down 2.75% to $144.08, After a Senior Iranian Official Said Hormuz Could Reopen Within Seven Days — a Report Fars Later Denied Saudi Arabia Restarted Its East-West Pipeline and Planned to Resume Yanbu Exports Tuesday, per Reuters, After Drone Attacks Shut It September 13 Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin Said Supply Shocks "Aren't Proving to Be Short-Lived," Leaving the Door Open to More Hikes After Last Week's Increase Financials and Insurers Sold Off: Schwab Fell 6.11% and Allstate 5.50%, While Adobe, Dell and Charter Each Dropped More Than 4.5% Xi Jinping Begins a Sept. 23-25 State Visit to Washington Today; Trump Hosts Him at the White House Thursday

Markets

Week Ahead

Oil Slides on an Unconfirmed Hormuz Offer as Chips Keep Climbing and Financials Crack, Hours Before Xi Lands

Tuesday split the tape. SMH rose 1.92% to $607.46, its highest close since July 10, QQQ gained 0.81% to $747.46 and the Nasdaq Composite set a second straight record, but SPY finished flat at $773.38 as Schwab and Allstate led a selloff in rate- and weather-sensitive financials. USO fell 2.75% to $144.08, its fifth straight loss, after a senior Iranian official said Hormuz could reopen within seven days if the U.S. eases pressure — a report Iran's Fars agency later denied — and Saudi Arabia restarted its Red Sea export pipeline. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said supply shocks "aren't proving to be short-lived." Xi Jinping arrives in Washington today.

By Lei Holdings Research

Tuesday, September 22, 2026 close, the most recent confirmed session · Published Wednesday, September 23, 2026, before the open · Published every weekday morning — see the full archive

SPY$773.38−0.02% Tue

QQQ$747.46+0.81% Tue

SMH$607.46+1.92% Tue

GLD$400.07+0.42% Tue

SLV$60.73+1.84% Tue

USO$144.08−2.75% Tue

USD/JPY¥157.37+0.21% Tue

Wall Street street sign against a Lower Manhattan office tower — Tuesday's tape pulled in two directions: AI hardware kept rising while banks, brokers and insurers sold off. Photo: Kidfly182 via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.

Chips Keep Climbing, the Rest of the Tape Doesn't: SMH Adds 1.92% as SPY Stalls

SMH rose 1.92% to $607.46, its highest close since July 10's $611.03, and QQQ gained 0.81% to $747.46. SPY closed at $773.38, 12 cents below Monday. The Nasdaq Composite set a second straight record at 27,244.28 while the Dow fell 185 points, or 0.36%, as financials and insurers sold.

SMH, Tue

+1.92%

SMH, 2 days

+6.01%

QQQ, Tue

+0.81%

SPY, Tue

−0.02%

Momentum holds

SMH's indicators have turned with the price

SMH has climbed from Friday's $573.00 to $607.46. Its MACD line crossed above zero Monday and widened Tuesday to 3.99 against a −1.37 signal line. RSI(14) is 64.0, firm but short of 70. The 50-day average sits well below at $564.92.

A narrower Tuesday

Rate- and weather-sensitive financials held SPY flat

Schwab fell 6.11%, Allstate 5.50% and Progressive 2.50%. Investing.com tied Schwab to last week's Fed hike squeezing deposit economics; StockStory tied insurers to severe-weather losses. Meta, Monday's AI standout, slipped 0.63%.

SMH · VanEck Semiconductor ETF

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $607.46

Friday $573.00 → Monday $596.03 → Tuesday $607.46. Tuesday traded $591.01–$608.63 and closed near the high. July 10's $611.03 close is the next reference overhead. MACD histogram +5.36 and widening; 200-day average $489.71. Indicators computed through Tuesday's close from full OHLCV.

SNDK +6.82% Sandisk rose to $1,887.04 after an analyst initiated coverage at Buy with a $2,400 target, per Yahoo Finance, reversing Monday's 1.41% dip on its S&P 100 debut. Viking Therapeutics rose about 25% on obesity-trial data and AutoZone about 5% on an earnings beat, per the same coverage.

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From Lei Holdings Our latest investment thesis — curated valuations, fundamentals, and technicals on a name we think the market is mispricing — is up for members. Read it on Patreon →

Oil Falls a Fifth Straight Day on Hormuz and Yanbu Headlines; Silver Outpaces Gold

USO fell 2.75% to $144.08, 10.98% below its September 15 close of $161.86, as Iran floated a conditional Hormuz reopening and Saudi Arabia restarted its Red Sea export route. Brent fell 2.1% to about $98, per Yahoo Finance. Metals recovered: GLD rose 0.42% to $400.07 and SLV 1.84% to $60.73.

USO · United States Oil Fund

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $144.08

Monday $148.16 → Tuesday $144.08 (−2.75%), a fifth straight decline and the lowest close since September 4 ($141.96); the intraday low was $142.67. RSI(14) has cooled to 51.0 from 65.8 on September 17, and the MACD histogram turned negative Monday and widened to −0.84 Tuesday.

Why oil fell — and why it may not last

A senior Iranian official told Reuters the strait could reopen within seven days if the U.S. eases military pressure and lifts its port blockade; Iran's Fars news agency later denied the reports, per CoinDesk

Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West Pipeline, shut by drone attacks September 13, with a China-bound cargo set to load at Yanbu Tuesday, per Reuters

Trump said U.S. and Iranian officials met for three hours at the UN but gave no timeline for a deal

Metals bounced back

SLV's 1.84% gain more than erased Monday's 0.50% loss; GLD recovered about 61% of Monday's $2.79 drop

GLD sits between its 50-day ($394.06) and 200-day ($416.34) averages

GLD remains 19.3% below its January 29 closing high of $495.90

GLD · SPDR Gold Shares

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $400.07

Monday $398.38 → Tuesday $400.07 (+0.42%), holding above the 50-day average ($394.06). RSI(14) 49.9 is neutral; the MACD histogram (−1.13) is still negative but has narrowed for three straight sessions.

SLV, Tue

+1.84%

GLD, Tue

+0.42%

USO, Tue

−2.75%

USD/JPY, Tue

+0.21%

USD/JPY closed Tuesday at ¥157.37, up 0.21% from Monday's ¥157.05, per FMP data. Yesterday's edition cited ¥157.23 for Monday from a different aggregator; this edition standardizes on FMP's series.

Watercolor of the Red Sea port of Yanbu with a moored dhow and a fortified harbor wall — Yanbu, then spelled "Yembo," the Red Sea port Saudi Arabia is reopening to crude exports — an archival watercolor from 1829-1834, not a current image. Image: Robert Moresby, Indian Navy, via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

Xi Arrives Today, Barkin Keeps the Hike Door Open, and Iran's Hormuz Offer Comes With a Denial

Xi Jinping's September 23-25 state visit begins today, with a White House welcome and summit Thursday. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said the supply shocks behind last week's hike "aren't proving to be short-lived," a second hawkish voice after Goolsbee on Monday.

South Portico of the White House behind tulip beds and fountains — Trump is scheduled to welcome Xi at the White House Thursday, followed by summit talks and a state dinner, Xi's first state visit to Washington since 2015. Photo: White House Photo Office (1981) via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

Tue Sep 22

FED

Barkin: supply shocks "aren't proving to be short-lived" Occurred

Pointed to new tariffs, the Middle East conflict and AI build-out strain on supply chains, and said much of the PCE index is rising faster than 3% annualized, per Yahoo Finance and Reuters. He left further hikes open.

Tue Sep 22

IRAN

Iran floats a seven-day Hormuz reopening, then denies it Developing

A senior official told Reuters the strait could reopen if the U.S. eases pressure and lifts its blockade; Fars later denied the reports. WTI bounced off its $89.18 low after the denial, per CoinDesk.

Tue Sep 22

SAUDI

East-West Pipeline restarts after nine-day shutdown Occurred

Pumping at a low rate, per Reuters sources. The line had rerouted about 4 million barrels a day around Hormuz before drone attacks shut it September 13.

Wed-Fri

US-CN

Xi state visit; White House summit and state dinner Thursday Scheduled

Tariffs, critical minerals and AI top the agenda, per CNBC. Analysts expect small steps on trade and AI rather than breakthroughs, per Yahoo Finance.

Wed-Fri

DATA

Fed speakers, PMIs, oil inventories, durable goods Scheduled

Barr Wednesday; Williams, Hammack and Paulson Thursday; Williams and Hammack Friday. Flash PMIs and crude inventories Wednesday, Costco and Darden Thursday, durable goods and revised UMich sentiment Friday, per FXEmpire.

Flagged — unverified or single-sourced

The Nasdaq Composite (27,244.28, +0.45%) and Dow (−185 points to 51,864) closes come from search-result summaries of index recaps, not opened directly.
Iran's reopening offer rests on one anonymous official and was denied by Fars; treat it as unconfirmed.
New York Fed's Williams and Vice Chair Jefferson also spoke Tuesday; we did not verify their remarks and do not characterize them.
We found no verified Wednesday-dated futures read at publication, so no pre-market figures are cited.

Five Large-Caps Fell 4.5% to 6.1%: Two Have a Documented Reason, Three Don't

The tofu-agent scanner flagged SCHW, ALL, CHTR, DELL and ADBE from Tuesday's session, every one tagged "unexplained move" with no discourse match. Unlike the prior two editions, the vault files were readable. Each move was recomputed from FMP closes and checked against dated news.

Schwab (−6.11%) and Allstate (−5.50%) had reported reasons; Charter (−4.94%), Dell (−4.57%) and Adobe (−4.52%) fell without a Tuesday catalyst.

Tue Sep 22

ALL

Allstate −5.50% ($242.86 → $229.50) Confirmed

Insurers fell together on severe-weather earnings risk, per StockStory; Allstate's August release put pre-tax catastrophe losses at $748 million. Progressive fell 2.50%. Allstate is down 8.1% since Friday.

Tue Sep 22

SCHW

Schwab −6.11% ($106.88 → $100.35) Partial

Investing.com tied the drop to last week's Fed hike pressuring Schwab's deposit-sweep economics, plus concerns about Meta's Muse AI. That is one outlet's attribution, six days after the hike, so we label it partial.

Tue Sep 22

CHTR

Charter −4.94% ($123.35 → $117.26) Unexplained

A third straight decline with no Tuesday-dated news. Comcast's September 9 warning on broadband losses is an older overhang, not a catalyst for this session.

Tue Sep 22

DELL

Dell −4.57% ($575.31 → $549.02) Unexplained

Fell a day after hitting a 52-week high, per Zacks. A MarketBeat "insider selling" headline cites 12-month totals, not a new filing. Profit-taking fits, but no report states it.

Tue Sep 22

ADBE

Adobe −4.52% ($249.52 → $238.25) Unexplained

No company news Tuesday. CEO Shantanu Narayen's $31.3 million share sale was executed September 17 and reported Monday, per Motley Fool; the stock is down 32% this year, per 24/7 Wall St.

How this list is built

Source: the tofu-agent scanner's Sept. 23-dated batch — five names, confidence scores 0.06 to 0.08, all tagged "unexplained move," none with an X, Reddit or news reaction attached.
The scanner's one-decimal percentage moves matched our FMP close-to-close figures after rounding on all five names.
One name is confirmed, one partially explained and three flagged Unexplained rather than given a forced reason.

Oil Is Pricing a Deal, the Fed Isn't, and Chips Aren't Waiting for Either

Monday was one rotation. Tuesday split into three: chips kept rising, oil kept falling on diplomacy headlines, and rate-sensitive financials sold as the Fed's hawks kept talking.

Oil is trading a headline that hasn't been confirmed

USO is down 10.98% from September 15 on a partial Saudi restart and a conditional Iranian offer that Fars denied. If the Iran talks or Thursday's summit disappoint, that discount can unwind quickly.

Cheaper oil hasn't softened the Fed

Barkin said the shocks aren't passing and pointed beyond energy to tariffs and AI-driven supply strain, echoing Goolsbee's Monday warning. Falling crude eases headline inflation, but officials are now looking past it.

Balance-sheet businesses are feeling the hike

Schwab's 6.11% drop and the Dow's 0.36% decline came while SMH rose 1.92%. Higher-for-longer rates weigh on deposit-funded models; AI hardware is trading on demand, not rates.

Monday's exit from metals didn't carry over

SLV more than erased Monday's loss and GLD recovered about 61% of its drop, even as oil kept falling. The rotation out of defensive assets has stalled after one day.

Chips go into Thursday with less cushion

AI and chip policy are on the summit agenda, so SMH is the most exposed ETF here. Its 6.01% two-day gain into the meeting leaves less room for a disappointment.

Oil and chips are both positioned for good news on Thursday. The Fed is not, which leaves financials as the group already absorbing the risk.

Where This Leaves Positioning

SPY $773

Flat at $773.38, holding Monday's move above the $765.96 September 8 close. A close below Friday's $761.69 would undo the breakout.

SMH $607

Highest close since July 10; that session's $611.03 is the next reference. A close under Monday's $596.03 would signal fading momentum; under $573.00 would erase the breakout.

GLD $400

Between the 50-day ($394.06) and 200-day ($416.34) averages. Friday's $403.15 intraday high is the near cap; September 16's $391.74 close is the floor.

USO $144

Lowest close since September 4. The $141.00-$142.09 band of September 1-4 closes is next support; a recovery above Monday's $148.16 would say Tuesday's headlines were overdone.

Thursday

Trump hosts Xi at the White House, with trade, critical minerals and AI on the agenda. Barr speaks Wednesday; Williams, Hammack and Paulson Thursday.

Iran's offer firms up and the summit delivers on trade and AI

Oil keeps falling and the chip rally extends

A confirmed path to reopening Hormuz would push crude toward early-September levels, and a trade or AI framework with China would support SMH through its July highs.

Read-through: USO breaks $141, SMH clears $611.03, SPY holds $765.96.

The Hormuz report stays denied and the summit yields little

Oil reprices higher and chips give back the two-day run

Oil has priced in a deal that isn't confirmed, and SMH is up 6.01% into the meeting. A letdown on both, with Fed speakers still hawkish, would leave little support under either.

Read-through: USO back above $148.16, SMH under $596.03, SPY under $761.69.

Base case

Chips extended Monday's breakout while oil fell on an unconfirmed Iranian offer and the Fed kept a hawkish tone. Financials took the hit. Thursday's Trump-Xi summit tests both the chip rally and oil's discount.

Equities: SMH rose 1.92% to $607.46, its highest close since July 10, and QQQ 0.81% to $747.46, with the Nasdaq Composite at a second straight record. SPY finished flat at $773.38 as Schwab and Allstate led financials lower.

Commodities: USO fell 2.75% to $144.08, a fifth straight loss, on Iran's denied reopening offer and Saudi Arabia's pipeline restart. GLD rose 0.42% and SLV 1.84%, reversing most of Monday's rotation out of metals.

FX & policy: USD/JPY rose 0.21% to ¥157.37. Barkin said supply shocks "aren't proving to be short-lived" and left further hikes open, a second hawkish Fed voice in two days.

The wildcard: Iran. One anonymous official helped push oil down 2.75% in a day, and the later denial only partly reversed it. Any confirmation — or a firm no — before Thursday will move crude more than the summit itself.

—

Sources

Stock Market Today: Dow Slips, Nasdaq Posts Fresh Record With AI Trade, Trump Diplomacy in Focus — Yahoo Finance, Sep 22 2026 United States Stock Market Index — Trading Economics, accessed Sep 23 2026 Live Updates: Oil Falls as Iran Signals Possible Hormuz Reopening — CoinDesk, Sep 22 2026 Oil Falls to Two-Week Low as Gulf Supply Outlook Improves — Yahoo Finance, Sep 22 2026 Saudi Arabia Restarts East-West Oil Pipeline, to Resume Exports From Yanbu, Sources Say — Reuters via U.S. News, Sep 22 2026 Richmond Fed's Barkin Says Supply Shocks Aren't Proving Short-Lived, Leaves Door Open to Further Rate Hikes — Yahoo Finance, Sep 22 2026 Fed's Barkin Says Economy May Be Firming, Inflation Not Limited to Energy, Tariff Shocks — Reuters via Investing.com, Sep 22 2026 2026 State Visit by Xi Jinping to the United States — Wikipedia, accessed Sep 23 2026 Trump-Xi Washington Summit: Why Some Expectations Are Low — CNBC, Sep 2 2026 Why Is Charles Schwab Stock Sliding Today? — Investing.com, Sep 22 2026 Primerica, Progressive, Allstate, and Trupanion Shares Are Falling — StockStory, Sep 22 2026 Charter Communications Stock Fell 8% on a Rival's Warning — TIKR, Sep 9 2026 Dell Technologies (DELL) Hits Fresh High: Is There Still Room to Run? — Zacks, Sep 21 2026 Dell Technologies Shares Down 4.4% on Insider Selling — MarketBeat, Sep 22 2026 Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen Sells $31.3 Million Stock — Motley Fool, Sep 21 2026 Adobe Is Down 32% This Year: Is ADBE Stock Dead Money or Due for a Bounce? — 24/7 Wall St., Sep 22 2026 Fed's Goolsbee Says Road to 2% Inflation May Not Be Painless — Bloomberg, Sep 21 2026 Price data: Financial Modeling Prep daily OHLCV, current through the Tuesday Sep 22, 2026 close, the most recent confirmed session. Session percentages are Monday Sep 21 close to Tuesday Sep 22 close, computed from raw closes. USD/JPY closes are FMP's EOD forex series. Chart-data indicators (SMA50/200, RSI14 Wilder, MACD 12/26/9) for SMH, GLD and USO were recomputed from full OHLCV starting June 2025, so the 200-day average is populated across the whole window. Correction: prior editions described GLD's closing high as $490.00 on March 2; FMP data shows the closing high was $495.90 on January 29. Market Movers tickers (ADBE, ALL, CHTR, DELL, SCHW) come from the tofu-agent scanner's Sept 23-dated batch (scores 0.06-0.08); each move was independently priced and searched, and three of five are flagged Unexplained. Index closes, Iran's reopening offer and Wednesday's pre-market are flagged in the report as single-sourced or unverified.