Week ahead: The 10-Year Treasury Yield Touched 5.14% Intraday, Its Highest Since July 2007, After Hot Flash PMIs and a Weak 5-Year Auction The S&P 500 Fell 0.75% and the Nasdaq Composite 1.13%, Ending a Two-Day Record Run; SMH Slipped 1.00% to $601.41 Oil Snapped a Five-Day Slide: USO Rose 3.30% to $148.83 After Iran's Pezeshkian Told the UN Iran "Cannot Be Made to Surrender" Fed Governor Michael Barr Said "Further Policy Adjustments Are Likely to Be Needed"; Futures Put a 71% Chance on an October Hike, per CME FedWatch Silver Fell 4.23% and GLD 1.80%, Slipping Back Below Its 50-Day Average as Treasury Yields Climbed Expedia Fell 7.72% and Airbnb 7.56% as Meta's Muse AI Agent Stirred Fears for Online Travel Bookers Bessent Said the U.S.-China Trade Truce Is Extended to January 10 as Xi Landed in Washington; Trump Hosts Him Today

Markets

Week Ahead

The 10-Year Yield Hits a 19-Year High, Oil Snaps Its Slide and Chips Cool Before Trump Meets Xi

Wednesday's story was the bond market. Flash PMIs came in far above forecasts, a 5-year auction drew weak demand, and the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.14%, its highest since July 2007. SPY fell 0.72% to $767.81, QQQ 0.84% to $741.21 and SMH 1.00% to $601.41. USO rose 3.30% to $148.83 after Iran's president said at the UN that his country would not surrender, ending five straight losses. Fed Governor Michael Barr said more tightening is likely needed. As Xi landed, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S.-China trade truce would run to January 10. Trump and Xi meet today.

By Lei Holdings Research

Wednesday, September 23, 2026 close, the most recent confirmed session · Published Thursday, September 24, 2026, before the open · Published every weekday morning — see the full archive

SPY$767.81−0.72% Wed

QQQ$741.21−0.84% Wed

SMH$601.41−1.00% Wed

GLD$392.88−1.80% Wed

SLV$58.16−4.23% Wed

USO$148.83+3.30% Wed

USD/JPY¥157.87+0.31% Wed

The Ionic colonnade of the U.S. Treasury Building in Washington — The Treasury Building in Washington. Wednesday's 5-year note sale cleared at about 5.03%, and the 10-year yield touched its highest level since 2007. Photo: Another Believer via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0.

Yields Break the Record Run: SPY Falls 0.72%, and SMH Gives Back 1.00% of Its Rally

The S&P 500 fell 0.75% to 7,706.03 and the Nasdaq Composite 1.13% to 26,936.04, ending two straight record closes. The Dow lost 352 points, or 0.68%. SPY closed at $767.81, still above Friday's $761.69, and SMH at $601.41, 4.96% above Friday.

SPY, Wed

−0.72%

QQQ, Wed

−0.84%

SMH, Wed

−1.00%

SMH, since Fri

+4.96%

The bond market

Hot data and a weak auction pushed yields to 2007 levels

S&P Global's flash composite PMI hit 58.4 against a 55.3 forecast, and services 58.7 against 55.8. The 5-year auction then drew weak demand, and 5-year yields broke 5% for the first time since 2007. Thirty-year mortgage rates reached 7.26%, per Yahoo Finance.

A dip, not a break

SMH pulled back, but its momentum readings held

SMH traded $593.79–$606.29 and closed 1.00% lower, 1.57% under July 10's $611.03. Its MACD line still rose, to 6.10 against a 0.12 signal. RSI(14) eased to 61.4. We found no chip-specific news Wednesday.

SMH · VanEck Semiconductor ETF

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $601.41

Friday $573.00 → Tuesday $607.46 → Wednesday $601.41. Wednesday's $593.79 low dipped under Monday's $596.03 close before SMH recovered to finish above it. MACD histogram +5.98, still widening; 50-day average $564.94, 200-day $490.91. Indicators computed through Wednesday's close from full OHLCV.

The United Nations General Assembly Hall seen from the back, with delegates seated beneath the gold emblem wall — The UN General Assembly Hall, where Iran's president spoke Wednesday, a day after Trump used the same stage to threaten to "annihilate" Iran. Photo: Basil D Soufi via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0.

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Oil Ends a Five-Day Slide on Iran's Defiance; Rising Yields Knock Silver Down 4.23%

USO rose 3.30% to $148.83, its highest close since September 18. Brent settled up 3.9% at $103.08 and WTI 1.8% at $92.16, per CNBC. Metals moved the other way as yields climbed: SLV fell 4.23% to $58.16 and GLD 1.80% to $392.88.

Masoud Pezeshkian

President of Iran

Told the UN General Assembly that Iran "cannot be made to surrender," while saying Tehran still believes in diplomacy. Per Bloomberg, he said Iran won't allow free navigation through Hormuz while sanctions and the U.S. blockade remain. Photo: khamenei.ir via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0.

USO · United States Oil Fund

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $148.83

Tuesday $144.08 → Wednesday $148.83 (+3.30%), recovering all of Monday's and Tuesday's losses. It is still 8.05% below the September 15 close of $161.86. RSI(14) rose to 55.8, but the MACD histogram widened to −1.07: one up day hasn't reversed the downtrend.

Why oil rebounded

Pezeshkian's UN speech tied Hormuz access to lifting sanctions and the blockade, undercutting Tuesday's reopening report

Diesel is at record prices; Maine's two senators asked Trump to release emergency heating-oil stocks, per Reuters, and a diesel export ban is under discussion

Thursday in Asia, crude edged lower after Iran said it stays open to diplomacy, per Reuters

Why metals fell

A 5%+ yield curve raises the cost of holding assets that pay nothing

SLV's 4.23% drop erased Tuesday's 1.84% gain; it's the lowest close since September 16

GLD is 20.8% below its January 29 closing high of $495.90

GLD · SPDR Gold Shares

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $392.88

Tuesday $400.07 → Wednesday $392.88 (−1.80%), a close below the 50-day average ($394.48) for the second time this month, after September 16. RSI(14) fell to 44.4. The MACD histogram widened to −1.29 after narrowing for three sessions.

USO, Wed

+3.30%

SLV, Wed

−4.23%

GLD, Wed

−1.80%

USD/JPY, Wed

+0.31%

USD/JPY was at ¥157.87 late Wednesday New York time, up 0.31% from Tuesday's ¥157.38, per FMP's daily bar, which was still open at publication. Japan's 10-year bond yield hit a 30-year high overnight as JGBs followed Treasurys, per CNBC.

Barr Says More Tightening Is Likely, the Truce Gets Two More Months, and Trump Meets Xi Today

Futures now price a 71% chance of an October hike, per CME FedWatch via Yahoo Finance. Bessent's truce extension came minutes after Xi landed, which leaves today's summit with less to deliver on tariffs and more room for AI, chips and minerals.

Michael S. Barr

Governor, Federal Reserve Board

"Further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion," Barr said Wednesday, per Yahoo Finance. He is the third Fed official this week, after Goolsbee and Barkin, to lean hawkish. Photo: Federal Reserve via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

Wed Sep 23

DATA

Flash PMIs beat across the board Occurred

Manufacturing 57.0 vs 53.7 expected, services 58.7 vs 55.8, composite 58.4 vs 55.3, per S&P Global data reported by Yahoo Finance.

Wed Sep 23

UST

5-year auction clears near 5.03%; 10-year touches 5.14% Occurred

Bloomberg called demand surprisingly dim; Barron's called the sale "disastrous." WSJ said the 10-year posted its biggest one-day rise in more than a year.

Wed Sep 23

US-CN

Trade truce extended to January 10 Occurred

Bessent announced it after an unscheduled meeting with Vice Premier He Lifeng, and said a larger package could come by January, per NBC News. Trump greeted Xi at Joint Base Andrews.

Thu Sep 24

SUMMIT

Trump-Xi White House talks and state dinner Scheduled

AI and trade lead the agenda, per Investing.com. Trump said he expects "a lot of different deals," per Bloomberg.

Thu-Fri

FED

Williams, Hammack, Paulson; durable goods; Costco Scheduled

Williams, Hammack and Paulson speak today, and Costco and Darden report. Durable goods and revised UMich sentiment come Friday.

Flagged — unverified or single-sourced

Index closes (S&P 500 7,706.03, Nasdaq 26,936.04, Dow 51,511.59) come from search-result summaries of recaps; the Dow figure matches Invezz's report. We did not open the primary recaps.
The 5-year auction's 5.033% high yield comes from Investing.com's calendar via a search summary; we did not see the Treasury's official results.
Yahoo Finance put Brent near $98 intraday, while CNBC reported a $103.08 settle; contract months may differ. We cite CNBC's settle and USO's actual close.
Thursday pre-market reports were mixed (some said futures dipped, others said they rose); no futures figures are cited. We also did not verify Wednesday's EIA inventory data.

Meta's AI Agent Hits Travel Stocks, an Activist Sinks Knife River, and Homebuilders Feel 7% Mortgages

No tofu-agent batch was dated September 24 at publication, so this section doesn't use scanner signals. We picked Wednesday's large moves with named catalysts from dated news, priced each from FMP closes, and followed up on yesterday's five flagged names.

Expedia (−7.72%), Airbnb (−7.56%) and Booking (−5.07%) fell together on Meta's Muse agent; KB Home (−2.96%) fell after trimming its margin outlook.

Wed Sep 23

EXPE · ABNB · BKNG

Expedia −7.72% ($280.70 → $259.04), Airbnb −7.56%, Booking −5.07% Confirmed

24/7 Wall St. tied the selloff to Muse, Meta's personal AI agent, which could book travel without the aggregators. Zuckerberg laid out Muse plans Wednesday, per WSJ. Meta rose 1.02%.

Wed Sep 23

KNF

Knife River −7.86% ($55.82 → $51.43) Partial

Starboard Value urged the construction-materials company to explore a sale, per WSJ, and TipRanks tied the drop to that activist pressure. A sale push usually lifts a stock, and no outlet explains the decline, so we label it partial.

Wed Sep 23

KBH · ITB

KB Home −2.96% ($48.59 → $47.15); ITB −2.46% Confirmed

KB Home scaled back its expected fourth-quarter margin improvement after Tuesday's results, per GuruFocus and Benzinga. Mortgage rates at 7.26% hit the whole homebuilder ETF.

Follow-up

Tue's five

No rebound for Schwab or Allstate Tracking

Schwab −0.85% and Allstate −1.67% Wednesday, down 6.90% and 7.08% over two days. Charter slipped 0.55%, Dell rose 0.17% and Adobe 1.02%. None of the three Unexplained names had a new catalyst.

How this list is built

Source: the tofu-agent vault had no September 24-dated files at publication (the latest batch is September 23: ADBE, ALL, CHTR, DELL, SCHW, scores 0.06-0.08). No scanner signal is used for today's names.
Names were chosen from dated Wednesday news and FMP's market data, then priced from FMP close-to-close data. Sub-$5 names and leveraged ETFs on FMP's losers list were excluded.
Two entries are confirmed, one is partial, and yesterday's five are tracked, with no new explanation for the three flagged Unexplained.

Rates Are Now the Constraint on Every Trade in This Report

On Tuesday, oil, chips and financials each had their own story. On Wednesday, rates drove all of them: yields rose, stocks and metals fell, and oil rose on Iran, which feeds back into inflation and yields.

Oil and yields are reinforcing each other

Oil rose while bond yields climbed. With diesel at records and three Fed officials warning in three days, an Iran-driven oil rally now also raises the odds of an October hike.

The truce took one risk off the summit

With tariffs extended to January 10 before talks began, today's summit matters mainly for AI and chip policy. That makes SMH, not the broad index, the summit trade.

Metals lost out to higher yields

Oil rose on geopolitical risk, but GLD and SLV fell anyway. At 5%+ yields, bonds now compete directly with gold as a hedge.

Rate-sensitive groups are taking the hits

Homebuilders fell with mortgages at 7.26%, and Schwab and Allstate extended Tuesday's losses. Meta's Muse hit online travel Wednesday, the same worry Investing.com cited for Schwab on Tuesday.

Japan is importing the U.S. bond selloff

The JGB 10-year hit a 30-year high overnight and USD/JPY rose to ¥157.87. Higher U.S. yields keep pressure on the yen, which Bessent has already flagged.

Chips held most of their gains through a 19-year high in yields. Whether they keep them depends on today's summit and on whether oil keeps adding to inflation pressure.

Where This Leaves Positioning

SPY $768

Down 0.72% but still above the September 8 close of $765.96 and Friday's $761.69. A close below $761.69 would undo this week's breakout.

SMH $601

Closed just above Monday's $596.03; the intraday low of $593.79 briefly broke it. July 10's $611.03 is still resistance, and Friday's $573.00 is the breakout floor.

GLD $393

Below the 50-day ($394.48). September 16's $391.74 close is immediate support; a close back above $400.07 would recover Wednesday's loss.

USO $149

Recovered Monday's $148.16. September 18's $153.82 is the next close overhead, and Tuesday's $144.08 is support.

Thursday

Trump-Xi talks and state dinner. Williams, Hammack and Paulson speak; Costco and Darden report.

The summit delivers on AI and chips, and yields stall

SMH retakes its July highs

With tariffs already settled to January, a chip or AI framework would be the summit's main news. If Thursday's Fed speakers don't add to Barr's message, SMH has room to clear $611.03.

Read-through: SMH above $611.03, SPY back above $773.38, GLD holds $391.74.

The summit is thin and yields keep climbing

SMH loses its breakout, and oil adds to hike odds

A summit with only a truce and no tech deal, plus another leg up in yields, would test SMH's breakout. A USO close above $153.82 would push October hike odds higher still.

Read-through: SMH under $596.03, SPY under $761.69, USO above $153.82.

Base case

Wednesday was driven by rates. The 10-year yield hit a 19-year high, oil rose on Iran, and hike odds climbed. Chips held most of their rally, leaving today's summit to decide whether it continues.

Equities: SPY fell 0.72% to $767.81 and QQQ 0.84% to $741.21, ending the Nasdaq's record run. SMH lost 1.00% to $601.41 but is still up 4.96% since Friday.

Commodities: USO rose 3.30% to $148.83, ending its losing streak on Pezeshkian's UN speech. SLV fell 4.23% and GLD 1.80%, back below its 50-day average.

FX & policy: The 10-year yield touched 5.14%. Barr said further adjustments are "likely to be needed," and October hike odds stand at 71%. USD/JPY rose to ¥157.87 as JGB yields hit a 30-year high.

The wildcard: Yields, more than Xi. Stocks can absorb a thin summit, but a 10-year moving toward the 6% level some investors now discuss, per Reuters, would pressure every rate-sensitive group at once.

—

Sources

Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Tumble as 10-Year Treasury Yield Surges to 2007 High — Yahoo Finance, Sep 23 2026 Stock Market Today: Nasdaq, Russell 2000 Sink as 5-Year Treasury Hits 5% for First Time Since 2007 — TheStreet, Sep 23 2026 Dow Falls 350 Points as 10-Year Treasury Yields Hit 5.1% — Invezz, Sep 23 2026 Ten-Year Treasury Yield Reaches 19-Year High Amid Broad Bonds Selloff — WSJ, Sep 23 2026 A Perfect Storm Is Raging in the Bond Market — WSJ, Sep 23 2026 US Treasury Five-Year Yields Breach 5% for First Time Since 2007 — Bloomberg, Sep 23 2026 Review & Preview: The Bond Market's Warning — Barron's, Sep 23 2026 United States 5-Year Note Auction — Investing.com, accessed Sep 24 2026 As 5% Treasury Yields Lose Shock Value, Investors Start Worrying About 6% — Reuters via Investing.com, Sep 23 2026 Oil Prices Rise, Snap Five-Day Losing Streak as Iran Vows It Will Not Surrender — CNBC, Sep 23 2026 Pezeshkian Says Iran Won't Surrender, After Trump's Annihilation Threat — Cyprus Mail (Reuters), Sep 23 2026 Trump-Xi Summit Looms & AI in the C-Suite — Bloomberg, Sep 23 2026 Oil Prices Edge Lower as Iran Says It Is Open to Diplomacy to End the War — Reuters, Sep 24 2026 Senators From Both Parties Ask Trump to Release Emergency Heating Oil as Prices Surge — Reuters, Sep 23 2026 Japan's 10-Year Bond Yield Hits 30-Year High Following Sell-Off in Treasurys — CNBC, Sep 24 2026 U.S. and China Agree to Extend Trade Truce Through Jan. 10, Bessent Says — NBC News, Sep 23 2026 U.S.-China Trade Truce Extended for Two Months, Bessent Says, as Xi Begins State Visit — CNBC, Sep 23 2026 Travel Booking Stocks Tumble as Muse Threatens to Bypass Them — 24/7 Wall St., Sep 23 2026 Mark Zuckerberg Lays Out His Vision: Muse AI Agent Fused With Smartglasses — WSJ, Sep 23 2026 Activist Starboard Urges Construction Company to Explore Sale — WSJ, Sep 23 2026 Activist Pressure Sends Knife River Stock Sliding — TipRanks, Sep 23 2026 KB Home (KBH) Faces Margin Pressure Amid Weaker Housing Demand — GuruFocus, Sep 23 2026 These Analysts Slash Their Forecasts on KB Home Following Q3 Results — Benzinga, Sep 23 2026 U.S. Stock Futures Dip After High Yields Batter Tech; Trump-Xi Summit Begins — Investing.com, Sep 24 2026 Price data: Financial Modeling Prep daily OHLCV, current through the Wednesday Sep 23, 2026 close, the most recent confirmed session. Session percentages are Tuesday Sep 22 close to Wednesday Sep 23 close, computed from raw closes. USD/JPY uses FMP's EOD forex series; Wednesday's bar was still open at publication. Chart-data indicators (SMA50/200, RSI14 Wilder, MACD 12/26/9) for SMH, GLD and USO were recomputed from closes starting November 2025, which reproduces the prior edition's Tuesday values exactly. FMP's refreshed series revised Dell's Tuesday close to $548.92, from the $549.02 cited yesterday; no other prior-day close changed. No tofu-agent batch was dated September 24, so Market Movers names were sourced from dated news and FMP data, not the scanner. Index closes, the 5-year auction yield and Thursday's pre-market are flagged in the report as single-sourced or unverified.