Week ahead: Trump Rejected an Iranian Proposal to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz Sunday; Oil Rose Over 1% Monday as WTI-Tracking USO Reopens Near $150 SPY Closed Friday at $771.35, up 0.54% on the Day and 1.27% on the Week, as AI Leaders Offset Falling Market Breadth SMH Gained 5.86% on the Week to $606.56 as Qualcomm Rose 3.97% Friday on a Renewed Apple Patent Deal and Bloom Energy Rose 8.27% on an Oracle Contract Reaffirmation GLD Fell 1.93% on the Week to $393.41, Slipping Below Its 50-Day Average as the 10-Year Yield Held Near 19-Year Highs Core PCE Wednesday and September Payrolls Friday Headline a Week With 22 Scheduled Federal Reserve Speeches China Is Weighing Whether to Let ByteDance and Alibaba Buy Nvidia's New China-Spec AI Chip, Reuters Reported, Days After the Trump-Xi Summit Bank of Japan Policymakers Debated Faster Rate Hikes at Their July Meeting, Minutes Released Monday Showed, as USD/JPY Held Near ¥157.70

Markets

Week Ahead

Trump Rejects Iran's Hormuz Bid, Oil Jumps, and Chips Cap a Winning Week Before a Fed-Heavy Calendar

President Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, and WTI-tracking USO rose more than 1% in early Monday trading, per CNBC. Friday's session was calmer: SPY gained 0.54% to $771.35, QQQ 0.46% to $744.50, and SMH 1.01% to $606.56 as Treasury yields eased from Wednesday's 19-year high. SMH still finished the week up 5.86%, lifted by Qualcomm's Apple patent renewal and Bloom Energy's Oracle contract news. GLD fell 1.93% on the week to $393.41. Ahead this week: Core PCE, September payrolls, and 22 scheduled Fed speeches.

By Lei Holdings Research

Friday, September 25, 2026 close, the most recent confirmed session · Published Monday, September 28, 2026, before the open · Published every weekday morning — see the full archive

SPY$771.35+0.54% Fri

QQQ$744.50+0.46% Fri

SMH$606.56+1.01% Fri

GLD$393.41+0.44% Fri

SLV$58.14+0.90% Fri

USO$148.33−3.11% Fri

USD/JPY¥157.69+0.26% Mon

An oil tanker at anchorage. USO rose more than 1% Monday after Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Photo: DmitTrix via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0.

SPY Gains 0.54% Friday as AI Leaders Offset Falling Breadth, and SMH Caps a 5.86% Week

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose Friday as Treasury yields eased from Wednesday's 19-year high, even as most individual stocks fell on the week, per GuruFocus's weekend recap (3,908 advancers against 5,934 decliners). SPY closed at $771.35, up 1.27% on the week; SMH closed at $606.56, up 5.86%.

SPY, Fri

+0.54%

QQQ, Fri

+0.46%

SMH, week

+5.86%

SMH, RSI(14)

62.7

The bond market

Yields eased from Wednesday's high, giving stocks room to run

The 10-year yield pulled back from Wednesday's 5.14% intraday peak. AI-driven gains lifted the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Friday even as most sectors fell and lower oil eased inflation pressure, per FXEmpire's Friday market recap.

Chips

SMH closes a volatile week up 5.86% on stock-specific catalysts

SMH rose in three of five sessions to close at $606.56, up 5.86% on the week. The MACD histogram widened to +6.06 on a 9.20 line against a 3.14 signal; RSI(14) eased to 62.7, short of overbought.

Qualcomm (+3.97% Fri), onsemi (+5.54%) and Bloom Energy (+8.27%) led the chip and AI-power complex higher into the weekend — details in Market Movers below.

SMH · VanEck Semiconductor ETF

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $606.56

Monday's $596.03 close → Wednesday's $601.41 dip → Friday's $606.56, a 5.86% weekly gain. MACD histogram widened to +6.06 on a rising 9.20 line; 50-day average $565.89, 200-day $493.28. Indicators computed through Friday's close from full OHLCV.

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Oil Jumps as Trump Rejects Iran's Hormuz Bid; Gold Falls Below Its 50-Day Average

USO fell 3.11% Friday to $148.33, down 3.57% on the week, then rose more than 1% in early Monday trading after Trump rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, per CNBC. GLD slipped 1.93% on the week to $393.41, its second close below the 50-day average this month.

Why oil fell Friday, then rose Monday

USO fell 3.11% Friday on truce-talk optimism, before Trump's Sunday rejection of Iran's Hormuz proposal turned prices higher in early Monday trading, per CNBC

WSJ reported Trump told aides he expects U.S. strikes on Iran to resume after November's midterm elections

Reuters reported Mideast oil exports rebounded to 12.8 million barrels a day in September, the highest since the conflict began in February, as Saudi Arabia and the UAE boosted shipments

Metals stay under pressure

GLD fell 1.93% on the week to $393.41, below its 50-day average ($395.43) for the second time this month

SLV rose 0.90% Friday to $58.14 but remains 2.99% lower on the week

The pullback in yields from Wednesday's 19-year high wasn't enough to lift gold back above its 50-day line

USO · United States Oil Fund

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $148.33

Thursday's $153.09 close → Friday's $148.33 (−3.11%), down 3.57% on the week. RSI(14) eased to 54.0; the MACD line (4.81) sits below its signal (5.99), a histogram of −1.18 that Monday's Hormuz-driven bid could narrow.

GLD · SPDR Gold Shares

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $393.41

Thursday's $391.69 close → Friday's $393.41 (+0.44%), still below the 50-day average ($395.43) and 22.0% under the January 29 high of $495.90. RSI(14) sits at 45.2; the MACD histogram is −1.29, narrowing but still negative.

The Bank of Japan's head office in Tokyo. Minutes from the central bank's July meeting, released Monday, showed policymakers debating faster rate hikes as inflation risks mount, per Reuters. Photo: yt_siden via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 2.0.

USO, Fri

−3.11%

SLV, Fri

+0.90%

GLD, Fri

+0.44%

USD/JPY, Mon

+0.26%

USD/JPY traded at ¥157.69 early Monday, up 0.26% from Friday's ¥157.28 close, per FMP's daily forex series. Bank of Japan policymakers debated the need for faster rate hikes at their July meeting, minutes released Monday showed, per Reuters, cementing the case for further tightening from still-low borrowing costs.

Core PCE and Payrolls Headline a Week With 22 Scheduled Fed Speeches

Wednesday's Core PCE inflation reading and Friday's September payrolls report are the week's two hard data points, framed by Reuters reporting that China is weighing whether to let ByteDance and Alibaba buy Nvidia's new China-spec AI chip.

Sun Sep 27

GEO

Trump rejects Iran's Hormuz proposal Occurred

Trump rejected an Iranian peace proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; WSJ reported he told aides he expects U.S. strikes to resume after November's midterms, per CNBC.

Mon Sep 28

CHIP

China weighs letting ByteDance, Alibaba buy new Nvidia chip Reported

Beijing has signaled it could allow domestic firms to buy a new Nvidia chip built for high-end professional computers, The Information reported, per Reuters.

Wed Oct 1

PCE

Core PCE inflation data Scheduled

Seeking Alpha expects the reading to trigger volatility, calling it a tactical dip-buying opportunity given September's record-approaching indexes.

Mon-Fri

FED

22 scheduled Fed speeches; Nike, Progress Software earnings Scheduled

FXEmpire counts 22 Fed appearances this week, alongside Nike and Progress Software results, all testing rate-hike expectations ahead of Friday's jobs report.

Fri Oct 3

JOBS

September payrolls report Scheduled

MarketWatch says another hot jobs report could pressure the Fed to raise rates again in October, keeping 10- and 30-year Treasury yields in focus.

Flagged — unverified or single-sourced

China's industrial profit growth (+4.2% in August, the weakest this year) comes from a single CNBC report citing government data; we did not access the underlying release.
GuruFocus's weekend breadth count (3,908 advancers vs. 5,934 decliners) is cited from its own weekly recap; we did not independently verify the underlying tally.
Oracle's force majeure notice on Project Jupiter and Oracle's statement that the project remains on schedule both come from a single Seeking Alpha report; we did not see Oracle's primary filing or statement.
Reuters' report that China is weighing Nvidia chip purchases for ByteDance and Alibaba originates with The Information and is unconfirmed by either company.

Bloom Energy Jumps 8.27% on an Oracle Reassurance, and Qualcomm Rallies on an Apple Renewal

Monday's tofu-agent batch flagged BE, GEN, ON and QCOM as unexplained movers with low confidence scores (0.08–0.27). We verified each move against FMP's close-to-close data and searched for a genuine catalyst — three had one; one did not.

Bloom Energy (+8.27% Fri), Qualcomm (+3.97%) and onsemi (+5.54%) each had a real, confirmed catalyst; Gen Digital (−6.29%) did not.

Fri Sep 25

Bloom Energy +8.27% ($266.65 → $288.70) Confirmed

24/7 Wall St. reported Oracle reaffirmed its 2.4 GW fuel cell contract with Bloom even after issuing a force majeure notice on the Project Jupiter data center campus that the contract supports. Numerous law-firm "investor deadline" press releases also circulated this week citing an unrelated securities suit; those are not the move's cause.

Fri Sep 25

QCOM

Qualcomm +3.97% ($194.26 → $201.97) Confirmed

24/7 Wall St. reported buyers reversed an initial selloff after Qualcomm renewed its global patent license with Apple through 2027, a deal Zacks said restores visibility for Qualcomm's licensing revenue.

Fri Sep 25

onsemi +5.54% ($73.15 → $77.20) Confirmed

Proactive Investors reported Jefferies said onsemi is well positioned for rising data-center power demand and that margin concerns from its recent analyst day were overstated — part of a broader AI-power thesis that also lifted Bloom Energy this week.

Fri Sep 25

GEN

Gen Digital −6.29% ($23.07 → $21.62) Unexplained

We found no news, filing or analyst action tied to Friday's decline. Gen's only press coverage that day was a company PR release about its AI Data Checker tool, which is unrelated to a share-price decline.

How this list is built

Source: tofu-agent's September 28 batch (BE, GEN, ON, QCOM), confidence scores 0.08–0.27 — all flagged by the scanner as "unexplained_move" pending review, not verified analysis.
Each move was re-priced from FMP's Thursday-to-Friday closes (not the raw brief's percentage) and cross-checked against dated news for a genuine catalyst.
Three of four names had a confirmed catalyst; Gen Digital's decline remains unexplained after our search.

A Calmer Friday Gives Way to a Weekend Escalation on Iran

Friday's session looked like relief — yields eased, chips held their gains, oil fell. The weekend reversed the oil leg, and this week's PCE and payrolls data will decide whether the rest holds.

Oil's Friday dip didn't survive the weekend

USO fell 3.11% Friday on truce-talk optimism, then rose over 1% Monday after Trump rejected Iran's Hormuz proposal. A geopolitical premium that faded into Friday is already back for the new week.

Chip strength is now stock-specific, not just macro

SMH's 5.86% weekly gain rode Qualcomm's Apple deal, onsemi's AI-power thesis and Bloom Energy's Oracle news — three separate corporate catalysts, not just Wednesday's summit optimism carrying through.

Gold still can't clear its 50-day line

Even with yields easing from Wednesday's peak, GLD closed the week below its 50-day average for the second time this month. A bond market that stays elevated keeps competing directly with gold as a hedge.

Two central banks, two hawkish signals

The Fed's 22 scheduled speeches this week follow a week of hawkish commentary; the Bank of Japan's July minutes, released Monday, showed the same debate over faster hikes. Both keep upward pressure on the dollar-yen pair.

Market breadth remains the weak link

GuruFocus counted nearly 6,000 declining stocks against fewer than 4,000 advancers this week even as headline indexes sit near records — a narrow, AI-led rally that PCE or payrolls could either broaden or expose.

Chips head into this week with real corporate momentum behind them. Whether that's enough depends on Wednesday's PCE print, Friday's payrolls, and whether Monday's oil bid on Iran turns into something more than a one-day move.

Where This Leaves Positioning

SPY $771

Up 1.27% on the week. The week's high was $775.14 (Tuesday) and low $763.25 (Thursday); a close back above $775.14 would mark a new weekly high.

SMH $607

Closed the week at a new high of $609.66 intraday before settling at $606.56. Monday's $596.03 close is the week's floor; a close below it would undo the week's gains.

GLD $393

Below the 50-day average ($395.43) for a second time this month. Thursday's $391.69 close is immediate support; a close back above $400.78 (Tuesday's high) would recover the week's loss.

USO $148

Fell 3.57% on the week before Monday's Iran-driven bid. Thursday's $155.60 high is resistance; Tuesday's $142.67 low is the week's support.

This week

Core PCE Wednesday, September payrolls Friday, and 22 scheduled Fed speeches — the busiest data-and-speech calendar of the quarter so far.

PCE and payrolls come in soft, and oil's bid fades

SMH clears its weekly high, and gold stabilizes

A cooler PCE reading and a payrolls miss would ease pressure on yields, giving SMH room to build on its $609.66 intraday high and gold a chance to reclaim its 50-day average.

Read-through: SMH above $609.66, SPY above $775.14, GLD back above $395.43.

Data runs hot, and the Hormuz standoff escalates further

Yields resume their climb, and oil's Monday bid holds

A hot PCE or payrolls print alongside a further Iran escalation would push both yields and oil higher together, testing SMH's weekly gains and adding to the case for an October hike.

Read-through: SMH under $596.03, USO above $155.60, SPY under $763.25.

Base case

Friday looked like relief from Wednesday's bond-market shock. The weekend's Iran news already reopened the oil trade, and this week's PCE and payrolls data will decide whether equities' narrow, AI-led rally can broaden or stalls.

Equities: SPY rose 0.54% Friday to $771.35, up 1.27% on the week. SMH gained 1.01% Friday to $606.56, up 5.86% on the week on Qualcomm, onsemi and Bloom Energy's stock-specific catalysts.

Commodities: USO fell 3.11% Friday to $148.33, down 3.57% on the week, before rising over 1% Monday as Trump rejected Iran's Hormuz proposal. GLD fell 1.93% on the week to $393.41, below its 50-day average.

FX & policy: USD/JPY rose to ¥157.69 early Monday as Bank of Japan minutes showed policymakers debating faster hikes. The Fed's 22 scheduled speeches this week follow a week of hawkish commentary from three officials.

The wildcard: Whether Monday's oil bid on Iran is a one-day move or the start of a new leg higher. A sustained escalation would feed back into inflation expectations just as PCE and payrolls data land.

—

Sources

Oil Gains Over 1% as Trump Rejects Iranian Proposal to Reopen Hormuz Strait — CNBC, Sep 28 2026 Oil Rises on Geopolitical Risks, Stockpile Decline — WSJ, Sep 27 2026 Mideast Oil Exports Rebound in September as Saudi Arabia Boosts Shipments — Reuters, Sep 28 2026 Oil News: Truce Talk Pressures WTI and Brent as Hormuz Risk Persists — FXEmpire, Sep 27 2026 S&P500 and Nasdaq Index: AI Names Lift Indices as Most Sectors Weaken — FXEmpire, Sep 25 2026 Weekend Morning Brew: AI Stocks Surge Amid Economic Uncertainty — GuruFocus, Sep 26 2026 China Weighs Allowing ByteDance, Alibaba to Buy New Nvidia Chips, The Information Reports — Reuters, Sep 27 2026 Bank of Japan Debated Need for Faster Rate Hikes, July Minutes Show — Reuters, Sep 28 2026 China Posts Weakest Industrial Profit Growth This Year, Expanding 4.2% in August — CNBC, Sep 28 2026 The Week Ahead: Core PCE, Payrolls and Fed Speakers Put Stocks to the Test — FXEmpire, Sep 27 2026 Why the Upcoming Jobs Report Could Send 10-Year and 30-Year Treasury Yields Surging — MarketWatch, Sep 27 2026 Stargate's First Scare: A Warning For the AI Buildout — Seeking Alpha, Sep 27 2026 Bloom Energy Jumps 8% as Oracle Reaffirms 2.4 GW Fuel Cell Contract After Force Majeure Notice — 24/7 Wall St., Sep 25 2026 Qualcomm Rallies 6% as Buyers Reverse Apple Renewal Selloff — 24/7 Wall St., Sep 25 2026 Qualcomm Renews Apple Patent Deal: Can QTL Regain Momentum? — Zacks, Sep 25 2026 Onsemi Well Positioned for Rising Data Center Power Demand, Jefferies Says — Proactive Investors, Sep 23 2026 Price data: Financial Modeling Prep daily OHLCV, current through the Friday Sep 25, 2026 close, the most recent confirmed session; USD/JPY reflects FMP's forex series through early Monday trading. Session percentages are Thursday Sep 24 close to Friday Sep 25 close, computed from raw closes, not FMP's intraday close-vs-open change field. Weekly percentages are Friday Sep 18 close to Friday Sep 25 close. Chart-data indicators (SMA50/200, RSI14 Wilder, MACD 12/26/9) for SMH, GLD and USO were recomputed from daily closes back to November 2025. Market Movers names were sourced from Monday's tofu-agent batch (confidence 0.08-0.27) and independently verified against FMP closes and dated news, not run as raw signals. China's industrial-profit figure and Oracle's Project Jupiter status are single-sourced and flagged as such above.