Week ahead: The 10-Year Treasury Yield Settled at 5.241% Monday, a Fresh 19-Year High, as U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Talks Stayed Deadlocked and Oil Rose GLD Fell 3.94% Monday to $377.91, a Seven-Week Low and Its Sharpest One-Day Drop Since June, as Rate-Hike Bets Firmed and Gold Broke Below Its 200-Day Average The Dow Fell 344 Points (-0.66%) to 51,484.84 Monday; SMH Fell 1.08% to $600.01 as Qualcomm, Intel and Arm Led a Broad Chip-Sector Selloff USO Rose 1.13% Monday to $150.01 as Trump Reportedly Weighs a Diesel Export Ban, Even as He Also Weighs Easing Iran Sanctions for Nuclear Progress Fed Governor Lisa Cook Said She Expects Continuing Inflation Pressure From the AI Buildout, Adding to a Week With Core PCE Wednesday and Payrolls Friday Zuckerberg and Anthropic's Amodei Are Set to Meet Trump Tuesday on AI Oversight, After the U.S. and China Agreed to $60 Billion in Tariff Cuts on Minor Goods Goldman Sachs's Board Has Discussed Naming John Waldron as David Solomon's Successor as CEO, the Wall Street Journal Reported Monday

Markets

Week Ahead

The 10-Year Yield Hits a 19-Year High, Gold Suffers Its Worst Drop Since June, and Chips Slide as Oil Bids on an Iran Deadlock

The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 5.241% Monday, a fresh 19-year high, up from 5.18% Friday, as U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks over the Strait of Hormuz stayed deadlocked and oil rose, per the Wall Street Journal. The Dow fell 344 points (-0.66%) to 51,484.84; SPY slipped 0.74% to $765.61 and SMH fell 1.08% to $600.01 as Qualcomm, Intel and Arm led a broad chip-sector selloff. Gold took the hardest hit: GLD fell 3.94% to $377.91, a seven-week low and its sharpest one-day drop since June, breaking below its 200-day average as rate-hike bets firmed. USO still rose 1.13% to $150.01 on the standoff. Ahead this week: Core PCE Wednesday, September payrolls Friday, and Fed Governor Lisa Cook already warning of AI-driven inflation pressure.

By Lei Holdings Research

Monday, September 28, 2026 close, the most recent confirmed session · Published Tuesday, September 29, 2026, before the open · Published every weekday morning — see the full archive

SPY$765.61−0.74% Mon

QQQ$736.53−1.07% Mon

SMH$600.01−1.08% Mon

GLD$377.91−3.94% Mon

SLV$54.95−5.49% Mon

USO$150.01+1.13% Mon

USD/JPY¥157.25−0.02% Mon

The New York Stock Exchange building on Wall Street — The New York Stock Exchange on Wall Street. The Dow fell 344 points Monday as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to a fresh 19-year high and oil rose on a deadlocked U.S.-Iran standoff. Photo: Arild Vågen via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.

Chips Slide as Rising Yields Hit the AI Trade, but SMH Still Holds Last Week's 5.86% Gain

SPY fell 0.74% Monday to $765.61 and QQQ fell 1.07% to $736.53 as the 10-year yield's climb to a 19-year high rattled the AI-led rally. SMH fell 1.08% to $600.01 on a broad chip-sector selloff — Qualcomm, Intel and Arm all dropped — but the ETF still sits on a 5.86% gain from last week's close.

SPY, Mon

−0.74%

QQQ, Mon

−1.07%

SMH, Mon

−1.08%

SMH, RSI(14)

59.6

The bond market

A 19-year high in yields is now the dominant story for stocks

The 10-year yield settled at 5.241% Monday, up from 5.18% Friday, per the Wall Street Journal. Fed Governor Lisa Cook said Monday she expects continuing inflation pressure from the AI buildout — a hawkish signal landing right as oil adds its own inflation risk.

Chips

A broad selloff, not one company's news, dragged SMH lower

Arm fell 9%, Qualcomm 7.2% and Intel 5.7% Monday as rate fears hit the group broadly, per 24/7 Wall St. and Invezz. SMH's MACD histogram narrowed to +5.34 from +6.06; RSI(14) eased to 59.6, still shy of overbought.

Qualcomm (−7.17% Mon), Intel (−5.67%) and Arm (−9%, per 24/7 Wall St.) led the chip-sector pullback as rising yields pressured the AI trade broadly — details in Market Movers below.

SMH · VanEck Semiconductor ETF

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $600.01

Friday's $606.56 close → Monday's $600.01, down 1.08% but still up 5.86% from the prior Friday. MACD histogram eased to +5.34 on a 9.81 line against a 4.47 signal; 50-day average $566.76, 200-day $494.44. Indicators computed through Monday's close from full OHLCV.

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Gold's Sharpest Drop Since June Breaks Its 200-Day Average as Oil Rises on the Iran Deadlock

GLD fell 3.94% Monday to $377.91, a seven-week low, as rising bond yields and firmer rate-hike bets drove gold's steepest one-day decline since early June, per Benzinga. Spot silver fell as much as 4.72%; SLV closed down 5.49% at $54.95. USO rose 1.13% to $150.01 as U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks over the Strait of Hormuz remained deadlocked, per the Wall Street Journal.

Oil rises on deadlock, mixed policy signals

USO rose 1.13% Monday as "Iran and the U.S. remain far apart over a ceasefire agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz," per NAB, cited by the WSJ

Trump said he is "seriously considering" a diesel export ban, Fox Business reported, even as FXEmpire reported he is separately weighing easing Iran sanctions if Tehran shows nuclear progress — a mixed signal still working through the market

Oil's bid is now feeding directly into the inflation narrative driving Monday's bond selloff, per MarketWatch

Gold and silver break down together

GLD fell 3.94% to $377.91, breaking below its 200-day average ($416.39) for the first time since April

Société Générale said gold's failure to hold above its 200-day average "reinforced its downward momentum," per Kitco, with a "critical support level" now in focus

Silver fell toward the $60.84 50% retracement of its all-time high, per FXEmpire's Monday forecast

USO · United States Oil Fund

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $150.01

Friday's $148.33 close → Monday's $150.01 (+1.13%) on the Iran deadlock. RSI(14) firmed to 55.6; the MACD line (4.47) still sits below its signal (5.69), a histogram of −1.22 that narrowed slightly from Friday's −1.18.

GLD · SPDR Gold Shares

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $377.91

Friday's $393.41 close → Monday's $377.91 (−3.94%), a seven-week low and 23.8% under the January 29 high of $495.90. RSI(14) dropped to 35.3, nearing oversold; the MACD histogram widened to −2.14 from −1.29, the steepest negative reading since March.

Gold bullion bars — Gold fell as much as 3.35% intraday Monday — its sharpest one-day decline since early June — after breaking below its 200-day moving average, per Société Générale, cited by Kitco. Photo: Stevebidmead via Wikimedia Commons, CC0.

USO, Mon

+1.13%

SLV, Mon

−5.49%

GLD, Mon

−3.94%

USD/JPY, Mon

−0.02%

USD/JPY closed Monday at ¥157.25, essentially flat from Friday's ¥157.28, per FMP's daily forex series. The pair has held a narrow range even as U.S. yields climbed, with the Fed's hawkish tone this week working against the historically wider dollar-yen gap that a rising 10-year would normally open up.

A Tech-and-Trade Tuesday Sets Up Core PCE and Payrolls Later This Week

Trump meets Meta's Zuckerberg and Anthropic's Amodei Tuesday on AI oversight, a day after the U.S. and China struck a narrow tariff deal that left rare earths unresolved. Wednesday's Core PCE and Friday's payrolls report remain the week's hard data points, now landing against a 19-year-high 10-year yield instead of last week's easing one.

Mon Sep 28

YLD

10-year Treasury yield hits 5.241%, a 19-year high Occurred

The yield settled at 5.241% Monday, up from 5.18% Friday, per the WSJ, which notes the next level to watch is 5.303% — last touched in June 2007.

Mon Sep 28

FED

Fed's Cook flags AI-driven inflation pressure Occurred

Governor Lisa Cook said she expects continuing inflation pressure from the AI buildout in coming months and will weigh what policy rate is needed to keep guiding inflation to target, per the WSJ.

Tue Sep 29

Zuckerberg, Amodei meet Trump on AI oversight Scheduled

Meta's Mark Zuckerberg and Anthropic's Dario Amodei are among tech executives set to meet Trump Tuesday, CNBC confirmed, following Trump's Sunday dinner with Amodei.

Mon Sep 28

TRADE

U.S., China agree to $60B in tariff cuts on minor goods Occurred

The deal covers goods like dolls and fireworks; MarketWatch reports rare earths remain a sticking point with no breakthroughs on AI, Iran or Taiwan.

Wed Oct 1

PCE

Core PCE inflation data Scheduled

The reading now lands against a firming rate-hike narrative rather than last week's easing one, raising the stakes for a print that surprises hot.

Fri Oct 3

JOBS

September payrolls report Scheduled

MarketWatch says another hot jobs report could pressure the Fed toward a further rate increase, keeping 10- and 30-year Treasury yields in focus.

Flagged — unverified or single-sourced

Trump's reported diesel-export-ban consideration and his separate willingness to ease Iran sanctions for nuclear progress both come from single broadcast/wire reports (Fox Business, FXEmpire); neither has been confirmed by the White House directly.
The Goldman Sachs succession-plan report (John Waldron to succeed David Solomon) is a single WSJ story citing board discussions; Goldman has not confirmed it publicly.
Arm's reported 9% Monday decline is cited from 24/7 Wall St.'s intraday recap; we did not independently re-verify Arm's official close against a second source.
GLD's 200-day SMA ($416.39) was computed here from a merged full-and-light OHLCV history spanning back to February 2025; the earlier segment uses close-only "light" price data, so intraday high/low inputs to that average are approximated.

Bloom Energy Gives Back 9% as Its Run Unwinds, While Palo Alto Bucks the Chip Selloff

Tuesday's tofu-agent batch flagged BE, INTC, PANW and QCOM. Their source files could not be read directly — a persistent iCloud file-lock error blocked access to the raw "why now" and confidence-score fields — so each ticker was verified independently against FMP close-to-close data and dated news instead of the raw brief.

Bloom Energy (−8.95% Mon), Intel (−5.67%) and Qualcomm (−7.17%) fell with the broader chip and AI-power complex; Palo Alto Networks (+4.63%) was the exception.

Mon Sep 28

Bloom Energy −8.95% ($288.70 → $262.87) Confirmed

24/7 Wall St. reported Bloom's "sharp run unwinds" alongside fuel-cell peers Plug Power (−6%) and FuelCell — a sector-wide pullback, not company-specific bad news, after Bloom's 8.27% jump last Friday. Multiple law-firm "investor deadline" press releases also circulated Monday citing an old, unrelated securities suit; those are not the move's cause.

Mon Sep 28

INTC

Intel −5.67% ($123.00 → $116.03) Confirmed

Invezz and GuruFocus both tied Monday's decline to broad chip-sector pressure from rising oil prices and Treasury yields, not company-specific news — Intel shares had surged nearly 40% over the prior month, per Zacks, leaving room to give some back.

Mon Sep 28

QCOM

Qualcomm −7.17% ($201.97 → $187.48) Confirmed

24/7 Wall St. reported "Arm Sinks 9% as Chip Selloff Deepens; Qualcomm Drops 6%, Marvell Slides 5%" — a broad reversal of Friday's Apple-deal rally as rate fears hit the whole group.

Mon Sep 28

PANW

Palo Alto Networks +4.63% ($374.74 → $392.09) Confirmed

GuruFocus reported Palo Alto joined Nvidia's AI agent safety initiative Monday, part of a broader cybersecurity-stock rally on rising AI-threat spending that Investor's Business Daily also flagged Monday.

How this list is built

Source: tofu-agent's September 29 batch, tickers BE, INTC, PANW and QCOM. The batch's raw "why now" text and confidence scores could not be read — the underlying files in the Obsidian vault returned a persistent iCloud sync/file-lock error (EDEADLK) across multiple retry attempts, including via direct file copy — so this run used only the flagged ticker list, not the scanner's confidence scoring.
Each move was re-priced from FMP's Friday-to-Monday closes (not any raw brief figure) and cross-checked against dated news for a genuine catalyst.
All four names had a confirmed, broadly-sourced catalyst; none were flagged unexplained this round.

One Number Is Driving Almost Everything: the 10-Year Yield

Gold's crash, oil's bid, and the chip selloff all trace back to the same bond-market move. That makes Wednesday's PCE print and Friday's payrolls report higher-stakes than they looked a week ago.

Yields did the damage gold usually resists

Gold typically holds up in a risk-off selloff; Monday it fell harder than stocks. That is the signature of a rate-driven move, not a safety bid — GLD's break below its 200-day average confirms rates, not fear, are setting the tone.

Oil is adding to the same inflation story yields are pricing

USO's bid on the Iran deadlock, plus Trump's reported diesel-export-ban idea, keeps energy costs elevated right as the Fed weighs its next move — a feedback loop Cook's Monday comments made explicit.

Chip strength was still there last week — now it's the first thing rates hit

SMH's 5.86% weekly gain came from real corporate catalysts (Qualcomm's Apple deal, Bloom Energy's Oracle news). Monday's broad reversal across Arm, Qualcomm and Intel shows the AI trade is exposed when yields move, regardless of company-level news.

The "stealth bear market" thesis gets a data point

Barron's flagged a narrow, AI-led rally masking broader weakness even before Monday's selloff. A day where nearly everything fell together — gold, chips, the Dow — is consistent with that read, not a contradiction of it.

Cybersecurity is the one pocket rates haven't reached yet

Palo Alto Networks rose Monday on AI-security demand even as the rest of tech fell — a reminder that not every AI-adjacent trade is priced the same way against rising rates.

Every asset class moved Monday for the same underlying reason. Whether that continues depends less on any single headline than on whether Wednesday's PCE print gives the Fed room to ease off, or confirms Cook's warning that AI-driven inflation is already here.

Where This Leaves Positioning

SPY $766

Down 0.74% Monday but still up 1.27% from the prior Friday. Friday's $771.35 close is near-term resistance; a close below Thursday's $763.25 low would mark a new weekly low.

SMH $600

Down 1.08% Monday, still 5.86% above the prior Friday. The 50-day average ($566.76) remains well below; Monday's $591.92 intraday low is the level to watch for a deeper break.

GLD $378

Down 3.94% Monday, a seven-week low and the first close below its 200-day average ($416.39) in months. Monday's $376.88 intraday low is immediate support; a close back above $393.41 would recover Friday's level.

USO $150

Up 1.13% Monday on the Iran deadlock. Monday's $153.99 high is resistance; the 50-day average ($136.15) remains far below, underscoring how much of the year's gain is intact.

This week

Core PCE Wednesday and September payrolls Friday, now landing against a 19-year-high 10-year yield instead of last week's easing one.

PCE comes in soft and the Iran deadlock breaks

Yields ease back, giving gold and chips room to stabilize

A cooler PCE reading and progress on a ceasefire would take pressure off both legs of Monday's selloff — oil's inflation premium and the yield spike squeezing gold and AI names together.

Read-through: GLD back above $393.41, SMH back above $606.56, USO below $148.

PCE runs hot and the deadlock holds through payrolls

The 10-year yield tests 5.303%, its highest since 2007

A hot PCE or payrolls print, combined with no Iran progress, would push the 10-year toward the WSJ's flagged 5.303% threshold — last seen in June 2007 — deepening Monday's cross-asset selloff.

Read-through: 10-year above 5.30%, GLD under $377, SMH under $592.

Base case

Monday's selloff had one cause wearing three costumes: a 19-year-high 10-year yield hit gold hardest, chips second, and gave oil's Iran-driven bid more room to run. Wednesday's PCE print is now the week's real test.

Equities: SPY fell 0.74% Monday to $765.61 and SMH fell 1.08% to $600.01 as a broad chip selloff — Arm, Qualcomm, Intel all lower — offset last week's 5.86% SMH gain without erasing it.

Commodities: GLD fell 3.94% to $377.91, its sharpest drop since June and first close below its 200-day average in months. USO rose 1.13% to $150.01 as U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks stayed deadlocked.

FX & policy: USD/JPY held flat near ¥157.25 even as yields spiked. Fed Governor Lisa Cook said Monday she expects continuing AI-driven inflation pressure, raising the stakes for Wednesday's Core PCE.

The wildcard: Whether the 10-year yield's push toward 5.30% is a peak or a waypoint. A break above that June-2007 level would mark the highest Treasury yields since 2002.

—

Sources

Treasury Yields Climb to Fresh Highs While Oil Rises — WSJ, Sep 28 2026 U.S. Stocks Slide as Treasury Selloff Deepens — WSJ, Sep 28 2026 Oil Rises Amid Deadlock in U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Talks — WSJ, Sep 28 2026 Fed's Cook Expects Continuing Inflation Pressure From AI Buildout in Coming Months — WSJ, Sep 28 2026 Gold Falls to Seven-Week Low as Rate-Hike Bets Rise — WSJ, Sep 28 2026 Gold Price Slide Below 200-DMA Brings Critical Support Level Into Focus — SocGen, via Kitco, Sep 28 2026 Gold Bull Run Looks Finished — Unless You Look Closer — Benzinga, Sep 28 2026 Silver (XAG) Forecast: Sellers Test 50% Retracement of the All-Time High — FXEmpire, Sep 28 2026 Dow Falls 344 Points as Rising Yields Pressure Tech Stocks — Invezz, Sep 28 2026 The U.S. and China Agree to $60 Billion in Tariff Cuts on Products Like Dolls and Fireworks — MarketWatch, Sep 28 2026 Zuckerberg, Amodei Among Tech Executives Set to Meet Trump Tuesday — CNBC, Sep 28 2026 Goldman's Board Has Discussed a Plan to Name John Waldron as Its Next CEO — WSJ, Sep 28 2026 Behind the AI Mask, There's a Stealth Bear Market Lurking Under Those Record Highs — Barron's, Sep 28 2026 Bloom Energy Sinks 8% as Sharp Run Unwinds; Plug Power Drops 6% — 24/7 Wall St., Sep 28 2026 Arm Sinks 9% as Chip Selloff Deepens; Qualcomm Drops 6%, Marvell Slides 5% — 24/7 Wall St., Sep 28 2026 Why Are Intel and AMD Stocks Falling on Monday? — Invezz, Sep 28 2026 Palo Alto Stock Gains as Agent Security Adds Continuous Offense — GuruFocus, Sep 28 2026 Price data: Financial Modeling Prep daily OHLCV, current through the Monday Sep 28, 2026 close, the most recent confirmed session (Tuesday Sep 29's session was not yet complete at publication); USD/JPY reflects FMP's forex daily series. Session percentages are Friday Sep 25 close to Monday Sep 28 close, computed from raw closes. Weekly percentages (where cited) are Friday Sep 18 close to Friday Sep 25 close, the last completed week. Chart-data indicators (SMA50/200, RSI14 Wilder, MACD 12/26/9) for SMH, GLD and USO were recomputed from a merged full-and-light OHLCV history back to February 2025 to support a genuine 200-day average; the pre-March-2026 segment uses close-only "light" price data as an approximation for open/high/low. Market Movers names (BE, INTC, PANW, QCOM) came from Tuesday's tofu-agent batch by ticker only — the batch's raw text and confidence scores were unreadable due to a persistent iCloud file-lock error — and were independently verified against FMP closes and dated news, not run as raw signals.