Week ahead: Core PCE Rose 0.2% in August Against 0.3% Expected, Cutting October Rate-Hike Odds to the Low 40s From About 70%, Even as the 10-Year Yield Topped 5.3% SMH Rose 0.35% Wednesday to $609.00, Its Second Straight Gain, as Micron Reported a Record Quarter and Guided Well Above Estimates After the Close USO Fell 4.44% Tuesday, Then Rose 1.61% Wednesday to $145.66, as Saudi Pipeline Flows Resumed but U.S.-Iran Talks Stayed Stalled; Brent Gained 14.4% in September GLD Slipped 0.54% Wednesday to $380.84 and Stayed Below Its 200-Day Average Despite the Softer PCE Print; the Dow Fell About 0.8% and Ended September Down 4.3% Cboe Rose 5.17% Wednesday After Locking in Its S&P 500 Options License Through 2051; September Payrolls Are Due Friday

Markets

Week Ahead

Chips Recover on Micron and a Soft PCE Print While the 10-Year Tops 5.3% and Gold Stays Under Its 200-Day Average

August core PCE rose 0.2% against 0.3% expected, and headline PCE ran 3.4% year over year against 3.7% expected, per Yahoo Finance and Kitco. October rate-hike odds fell to the low 40s from about 70% earlier in the week. The 10-year Treasury yield still climbed above 5.3% Wednesday, a 24-year high, per the Wall Street Journal. Chips took the better news: SMH rose 1.15% Tuesday and 0.35% Wednesday to $609.00, above Friday's $606.56, and Micron reported a record quarter after the close. Gold did not: GLD closed at $380.84, still below its 200-day average. USO fell 4.44% Tuesday on restored Saudi pipeline flows and rose 1.61% Wednesday as Iran talks stalled. Payrolls land Friday.

By Lei Holdings Research

Wednesday, September 30, 2026 close, the most recent confirmed session · Published Thursday, October 1, 2026, before the open · Published every weekday morning — see the full archive

SPY$762.63−0.21% Wed

QQQ$739.77+0.25% Wed

SMH$609.00+0.35% Wed

GLD$380.84−0.54% Wed

SLV$54.51−1.75% Wed

USO$145.66+1.61% Wed

USD/JPY¥157.80+0.33% Wed

The Lower Manhattan financial district skyline at dusk — Lower Manhattan's financial district. The Dow ended September down 4.3% while the Nasdaq rose 1.9%, per Investing.com, a split that widened Wednesday as chips and tech outperformed. Photo: King of Hearts via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.

Chips Lead Again After a Micron Beat, While the Dow Sinks to a 4.3% September Loss

SPY fell 0.21% Wednesday to $762.63 as a late-session sell-off erased early gains from the softer PCE report, per Investing.com. QQQ rose 0.25% to $739.77. SMH rose 0.35% to $609.00 and is up 0.40% from last Friday's close, though still 9.0% under its June 22 closing high of $668.91.

SPY, Wed

−0.21%

QQQ, Wed

+0.25%

SMH, Wed

+0.35%

SMH, RSI(14)

62.4

Chips

Micron's guide lands on a tape that already favored semis

Micron reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $54.23 billion against about $50.75 billion expected and guided next quarter to roughly $61.5 billion, per Benzinga and CNBC. South Korea's September exports rose 83.5% to $120.94 billion, per the Wall Street Journal. Extended-trading reaction was muted, reported between +0.4% and +1.6%.

Rates

Softer inflation did not pull the long end down

Core PCE rose 0.2% in August, per Kitco, and ADP showed private payrolls up 90,000. The 10-year yield still passed 5.3%, and the 30-year crossed 5.6%, its highest since 2002, per Yahoo Finance. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said he sees another rate increase this year and one in 2027, per Barron's.

Micron closed Wednesday at $1,065.11, unchanged on the day, before reporting after the bell. Shares are up more than 237% this year, per CNBC.

SMH · VanEck Semiconductor ETF

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $609.00

Monday's $600.01 close → Wednesday's $609.00, a 1.50% two-day gain. The MACD histogram narrowed to +4.62 from +5.34 Monday and +6.06 Friday even as price rose, on an 11.49 line against a 6.88 signal; 50-day average $568.22, 200-day $496.79. Indicators computed through Wednesday's close from full OHLCV.

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Oil Gives Back 4.4% on Saudi Supply, Then Rebounds; Gold Fails to Cash In on the Softer PCE

USO fell 4.44% Tuesday to $143.35 as Saudi East-West pipeline flows resumed, then rose 1.61% Wednesday to $145.66 as U.S.-Iran talks stayed stalled, per Investing.com. Brent gained 14.4% in September to settle at $103.50. GLD rose 1.32% Tuesday but fell 0.54% Wednesday to $380.84; SLV fell 1.75% to $54.51.

Oil: supply returns, diplomacy does not

JPMorgan analysts said Middle East exports are now about 11% below pre-war levels after Saudi East-West pipeline flows were restored, per Investing.com

Trump rejected Tehran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days in exchange for ending hostilities and lifting sanctions, per Investing.com; he also denied reports he was ready to offer Iran sanctions relief, per Business Recorder

Trump said he talks about a diesel export ban "every day," per Reuters, but appeared less favorable Wednesday, citing a possible "negative impact" on gasoline, per CNBC

U.S. commercial crude stocks rose 900,000 barrels to 427.3 million; analysts had expected a 700,000-barrel decline

Gold: still below the 200-day

GLD's third straight close under its 200-day average, now $416.30, leaves it 8.5% below that level

Spot gold rose 0.73% to near $4,211.70 in the morning after the PCE report, per Kitco, with the 10-year near 5.2% capping the bounce; GLD ended the session lower

The implied October hike probability fell toward the low 40s from about 70% earlier in the week, per Kitco

USO · United States Oil Fund

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $145.66

Monday's $150.01 close → Tuesday's $143.35 (−4.44%) → Wednesday's $145.66 (+1.61%). RSI(14) sits at 50.8; the MACD line (3.11) is below its signal (4.84), a histogram of −1.74 that has widened for three sessions. 50-day average $136.84, 200-day $114.37.

GLD · SPDR Gold Shares

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $380.84

Friday's $393.41 close → Wednesday's $380.84 (−3.20%), 23.2% under the January 29 high of $495.90. RSI(14) is 38.7; the MACD histogram is −2.28, about flat versus Monday's −2.14 and Tuesday's −2.23, with the line (−4.48) below its signal (−2.19).

USO, Tue

−4.44%

USO, Wed

+1.61%

GLD, Wed

−0.54%

SLV, Wed

−1.75%

USD/JPY printed ¥157.80 on Wednesday, up 0.33% from Tuesday's ¥157.28, per FMP's daily forex series, though Wednesday's volume in that series was unusually thin. The yen was quiet ahead of the Bank of Japan's tankan survey and its summary of opinions from the September meeting, due next, per the Wall Street Journal.

Payrolls Friday Decide Whether October Hike Odds Keep Falling

Wednesday's softer core PCE cut the implied October hike probability, but the 10-year yield rose anyway and Fed officials split on what comes next. September payrolls Friday are the next hard data point, and the Fed meets again at the end of October.

The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington, D.C. — The Federal Reserve's Eccles Building in Washington. Kashkari said he sees another increase this year, while New York Fed President John Williams said the Fed has time, per 24/7 Wall St. Photo: Federal Reserve via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

Tue Sep 29

OIL

Oil falls as Saudi pipeline flows resume Occurred

USO fell 4.44% to $143.35 as restored East-West pipeline flows brought Middle East exports to about 11% below pre-war levels, per JPMorgan analysts cited by Investing.com.

Wed Sep 30

PCE

August core PCE comes in soft Occurred

Core PCE rose 0.2% on the month and 3.0% on the year; headline PCE rose 3.4% annually against 3.7% expected, per Kitco and Yahoo Finance. Second-quarter GDP was revised to 2.2%, per the WSJ.

Wed Sep 30

YLD

10-year yield tops 5.3%, a 24-year high Occurred

The WSJ reported the 10-year above 5.3%, a level not seen in 24 years. MarketWatch said Treasury yields were headed for their biggest monthly jump in a generation.

Wed Sep 30

Micron reports record fiscal fourth quarter Occurred

Revenue of $54.23 billion and adjusted EPS of $33.42 beat estimates of about $50.75 billion and $31.45, and the company guided to roughly $61.5 billion and $38.15 next quarter, per Benzinga.

Wed Sep 30

FED

Kashkari sees another hike this year Occurred

The Minneapolis Fed president told CNBC the August inflation data did not change his view that inflation is too high, and he expects one more increase in 2026 and another in 2027, per the WSJ and Barron's.

Fri Oct 2

JOBS

September payrolls report Scheduled

ADP showed private payrolls up 90,000 in September against 68,000 expected. A strong government print would test the market's reduced hike odds.

Late Oct

FOMC

Fed policy meeting Scheduled

The implied odds of a hike at that meeting were in the low 40s after Wednesday's PCE report, per Kitco.

Flagged — unverified or single-sourced

No verified Thursday pre-market prices were available: FMP's real-time quote endpoints are not on this plan, and no sourced Thursday futures figures turned up. All prices here are Wednesday's close.
Micron's extended-trading move differs by source (+0.4% per CNBC, +1.57% per Benzinga); we cite the range, not a single figure.
Index closing levels differ across sources (S&P 500 7,651.54 vs 7,655.90; Dow 50,906.05 vs 50,908.79), so we cite percentage moves only. The Dow's roughly 0.8% decline is consistent across both.
The 10-year yield's Wednesday close is reported variously as 5.29% and 5.3%; the WSJ's "above 5.3%" may refer to an intraday level, and we did not confirm the settlement.
Wednesday's USD/JPY print in FMP's series carried very low volume (18,318 versus 390,000+ on prior days) and may be an incomplete session.
WTI and Brent settlement figures differ by source ($90.31 vs $90.42 WTI); we cite Investing.com's month-end figures.

Cboe Locks In a 25-Year License; Jabil and Constellation Fall Despite Good News

Thursday's tofu-agent batch flagged CBOE, CEG, HPE, JBL and MRNA. The batch files could not be read — an iCloud file-lock error (EDEADLK) blocked access again — so each ticker was verified independently against FMP closes and dated news. The moves below are Wednesday's session.

Cboe (+5.17% Wed) and Hewlett Packard Enterprise (+3.90%) rose on company news; Jabil (−10.03%) fell despite a beat and raised guidance.

Wed Sep 30

CBOE

Cboe +5.17% ($261.75 → $275.29) Confirmed

Cboe and S&P Global agreed a 25-year extension of Cboe's exclusive license to list S&P 500 index options, through 2051, per StocksToTrade. SPX options are roughly half of Cboe's revenue; Barclays called the deal a meaningful positive. The stock had also risen 3.35% Tuesday.

Wed Sep 30

HPE

Hewlett Packard Enterprise +3.90% ($61.49 → $63.89) Confirmed

HPE announced a $1.2 billion Vultr order for AMD Helios AI rack systems, per Invezz, and raised its networking growth targets at its investor day, per Investopedia. The stock hit a record intraday high of $67.10 before giving back most of the gain.

Wed Sep 30

MRNA

Moderna −5.35% ($203.46 → $192.57) Confirmed

Citi downgraded Moderna to Sell after a rally of roughly 500% this year, per Investopedia. The shares reversed higher intraday on a bullish order-flow signal, per Benzinga, before closing lower.

Wed Sep 30

JBL

Jabil −10.03% ($318.84 → $286.86) Unexplained

Jabil beat fourth-quarter estimates and guided fiscal 2027 revenue to $44.5 billion and adjusted EPS to $17.55, both above consensus, with a new $1.5 billion buyback, per Seeking Alpha. The stock opened near $306 against Tuesday's $318.84 close. We found no report naming a specific cause for the drop.

Wed Sep 30

CEG

Constellation Energy −3.99% ($264.58 → $254.02) Unexplained

Constellation and Amazon announced a 20-year power agreement adding about 190 megawatts at Calvert Cliffs, per Reuters, yet shares fell on the day. We found no report attributing the decline to company-specific news.

How this list is built

Source: tofu-agent's October 1 batch, tickers CBOE, CEG, HPE, JBL and MRNA. The raw "why now" text and confidence scores could not be read because the Obsidian vault files returned an iCloud file-lock error (EDEADLK) on every attempt, so only the ticker list was used, not the scanner's scoring.
Each move was re-priced from FMP close-to-close data, not any raw brief figure. FMP's own daily "changePercent" field disagreed with close-to-close math for several names, so it was not used.
Three names have a confirmed catalyst; Jabil and Constellation are flagged Unexplained because their company news was positive and the stocks fell anyway.

Good Inflation News Reached Chips but Not Gold or the 10-Year

The softer PCE print lowered hike odds without lowering yields. Chips and tech responded; gold and the Dow did not.

Gold got the data and ignored it

Hike odds fell from about 70% to the low 40s, yet GLD gained just 0.78% over Tuesday and Wednesday and closed 8.5% below its 200-day average. With the 10-year above 5.3%, yield, not hike odds, is setting gold's price.

Chips regained Monday's loss

SMH rose 1.50% over two sessions to $609.00, above Friday's $606.56. Micron's guide, South Korea's 83.5% export jump and a chip-led Nikkei point the same way, though SMH's MACD histogram has narrowed three days running.

Oil's drop was supply, not diplomacy

USO fell 4.44% Tuesday as Saudi flows resumed, then rose 1.61% Wednesday as talks stalled. Brent still gained 14.4% in September, and U.S. diesel hit $6.53 a gallon last week, more than 70% above its pre-war level, per Yahoo Finance.

Tech is carrying the index

The Dow lost 4.3% in September while the Nasdaq gained 1.9%. Consumer confidence hit its lowest level since 2014, per 24/7 Wall St., and the WSJ said the market limps into the fourth quarter despite headline gains.

Good company news was not enough Wednesday

Jabil fell 10% after a beat and raise, Constellation fell 4% after an Amazon power deal, and HPE gave back most of a record-high intraday move. Cboe and Micron were the exceptions in a tape that rewarded few names.

The next test is Friday. A strong payrolls print would revive hike odds and likely pressure the group that rallied this week; a soft one would give gold and the long end their first reason to turn.

Where This Leaves Positioning

SPY $763

Down 0.21% Wednesday and 1.13% below last Friday's $771.35 close, which is resistance. Wednesday's $762.18 low is the line to hold; below it, the September 18 low of $757.97 is next.

SMH $609

Up 0.35% Wednesday and 0.40% above last Friday. Tuesday's $613.27 high is resistance; Monday's $591.92 low is support, with the 50-day average at $568.22 below that.

GLD $381

Down 0.54% Wednesday, third straight close under the 200-day average ($416.30). Monday's $376.88 low is support; a close above $393.41 would recover last Friday's level.

USO $146

Up 1.61% Wednesday after Tuesday's 4.44% drop. Tuesday's $143.29 low is support; the September 24 high of $155.60 is resistance, with the 50-day average at $136.84.

This week

September payrolls Friday, with Micron's reaction and the 10-year yield at 24-year highs setting the tone beforehand.

Payrolls cool and the 10-year backs off 5.3%

Hike odds keep falling, and gold gets its first real bid

A soft jobs print on top of Wednesday's PCE would extend the drop in hike odds and give gold and the broader index room to recover.

Read-through: GLD above $393.41, SPY back above $771.35, SMH holding above $600.

Payrolls run hot and yields extend the climb

Hike odds rebuild from the low 40s

A hot print would support Kashkari's call for another increase and pressure the Wednesday winners, chips included, as it did on Monday.

Read-through: SPY under $762, GLD under $376.88, SMH under $591.92.

Base case

Wednesday's PCE cut hike odds but not the 10-year, which passed 5.3%. Chips took the improvement and gold did not. Friday's payrolls decide whether the split holds.

Equities: SPY fell 0.21% to $762.63 as a late sell-off erased early gains. SMH rose 0.35% to $609.00 and QQQ rose 0.25% to $739.77. Micron's record quarter and $61.5 billion guide landed after the close.

Commodities: GLD fell 0.54% to $380.84, still under its 200-day average. USO swung from −4.44% to +1.61% to $145.66 as Saudi supply returned and Iran talks stalled.

FX & policy: USD/JPY printed ¥157.80. Kashkari sees another hike this year; Williams said the Fed has time. October hike odds sit in the low 40s.

The wildcard: Whether the 10-year's move above 5.3% is a peak. Friday's payrolls are the next test.

—

Sources

10-Year Treasury Yield Rises to New 24-Year High — WSJ, Sep 30 2026 Technology Shares Lift Nasdaq as Broader Market Slips — WSJ, Sep 30 2026 Surging Yields Bring the Bond Market Back to the Turn of the Century — WSJ, Sep 30 2026 A Tech-Fueled Stock Market Powers Through, but Limps Into the Fourth Quarter — WSJ, Sep 30 2026 AI Boom Powers South Korea's September Exports Past $120 Billion — WSJ, Sep 30 2026 Nikkei Rises 1.0%, Led by Chip Stocks — WSJ, Sep 30 2026 Yen Consolidates Ahead of BOJ Tankan, BOJ's Summary of Opinions — WSJ, Sep 30 2026 Fed's Kashkari Sees Another Rate Increase This Year and One More in 2027 — Barron's, Sep 30 2026 Williams Says the Fed Has Time. October Rate Hike Odds Fell Below a Coin Flip — 24/7 Wall St., Sep 30 2026 Consumer Confidence Fell to Its Lowest Level Since 2014 — 24/7 Wall St., Sep 30 2026 A Brutal September for Bonds Points to an Even Darker October — MarketWatch, Sep 30 2026 U.S. Bond Yields Head for Biggest Jump in a Generation — MarketWatch, Sep 30 2026 Gold Rises as Softer PCE Cools October Fed Hike Odds — Kitco AM Report, Sep 30 2026 Stock Market Today (Sept. 30, 2026) — Yahoo Finance U.S. Futures Rise Ahead of PCE Inflation Data as Markets Monitor Oil and Diesel Export Talks — Yahoo Finance, Sep 30 2026 Wall Street Gives Up Gains Just Before Close, Posts a Slight Loss for September — Investing.com, Sep 30 2026 Oil Rises for September, Brent Jumps 14% as Middle East Conflict Drags On — Investing.com, Sep 30 2026 Oil Prices Rise on Stalled US-Iran Talks and Tight Fuel Markets — Business Recorder, Sep 30 2026 Trump Says He Is Still Considering Diesel Export Ban — Reuters, Sep 30 2026 Trump 'Thinking About' Diesel Export Ban, but Says It Could Have 'Negative Impact' on Gasoline — CNBC, Sep 30 2026 Micron Delivers Q4 Double Beat, Sees 'Even Stronger' Year Ahead — Benzinga, Sep 30 2026 Micron Beats on Earnings and Issues Strong Guidance as Data Center Revenue Jumps 11-Fold — CNBC, Sep 30 2026 Cboe Stock Jumps as 25-Year SPX License Extension Resets the Game — StocksToTrade, Sep 30 2026 Why Is HPE Stock Gaining Today? — Invezz, Sep 30 2026 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Stock Soars to Fresh Record on Raised Revenue Targets, $1.2B Server Deal — Investopedia, Sep 30 2026 Moderna Stock Slumps as Citi Says It's Time to Sell After 500% Rally This Year — Investopedia, Sep 30 2026 Moderna Shares Reverse Weakness, Rise Over 3% After Key Trading Signal — Benzinga, Sep 30 2026 Jabil's Plunge Is a Gift for Value Investor — Seeking Alpha, Sep 30 2026 Constellation, Amazon Sign 20-Year Power Deal to Support Maryland Nuclear Plant — Reuters, Sep 30 2026 Price data: Financial Modeling Prep daily OHLCV, current through the Wednesday Sep 30, 2026 close, the most recent confirmed session (Thursday Oct 1's session had not opened at publication); USD/JPY reflects FMP's forex daily series. Daily percentages are computed from raw closes, not FMP's changePercent field, which disagreed with close-to-close math. Weekly percentages (where cited) are Friday Sep 18 close to Friday Sep 25 close, the last completed week; "since last Friday" figures run from the Sep 25 close. Chart-data indicators (SMA50/200, RSI14 Wilder, MACD 12/26/9) for SMH, GLD and USO were extended through Sep 30 from the prior edition's series, with the 200-day averages rolled forward against the Dec 2025 closes that dropped out of the window; the earlier segment of the 200-day history uses close-only "light" price data as an approximation. Market Movers names (CBOE, CEG, HPE, JBL, MRNA) came from Thursday's tofu-agent batch by ticker only — the batch's raw text and confidence scores were unreadable due to an iCloud file-lock error — and were independently verified against FMP closes and dated news, not run as raw signals.