Week ahead: September Payrolls Rose 29,000 Against About 84,000 Expected, Cutting October Hike Odds to Roughly 22%–28% From About 70% Earlier in the Week; the Nasdaq Closed at a Record SMH Rose 2.07% Friday to $630.60 and 3.96% on the Week; Seagate and Western Digital Fell About 10% on a Toshiba Capacity Report While Teradyne and HPE Rose 7%–8% GLD Fell 0.68% Friday to $380.14 and 3.37% on the Week Despite the Weaker Jobs Data, Its 25th Straight Close Under the 200-Day Average USO Rose 2.99% Thursday on China's Fuel-Export Halt, Then Fell 1.77% Friday on a Reported Emergency Diesel Release; Brent Settled at $102.25 Brent Was Near $102.60 in Early Tokyo Trade Monday After Iran Said Hormuz Stays Closed Until Its Seven Conditions Are Met; ISM Services Is Due at 10:00 ET

Markets

Week Ahead

Payrolls Miss and the Nasdaq Hits a Record, While Seagate and Western Digital Drop 10% and Gold Ignores the Weaker Data

September payrolls rose 29,000 against about 84,000 expected, with July and August revised down by 60,000, per Yahoo Finance and Kitco. October hike odds fell to roughly 22%–28% from about 70% earlier in the week. The Nasdaq Composite closed at a record, and SMH rose 2.07% to $630.60, up 3.96% on the week. Gold did not respond: GLD fell 0.68% to $380.14 and spot gold lost about 3.4% on the week, per Kitco. Seagate and Western Digital each fell about 10% on a report that Toshiba will double hard-drive capacity. Iran said Sunday that Hormuz stays closed until its conditions are met.

By Lei Holdings Research

Friday, October 2, 2026 close, the most recent confirmed session · Published Monday, October 5, 2026, before the open · Published every weekday morning — see the full archive

SPY$769.64+0.74% Fri

QQQ$749.58+1.02% Fri

SMH$630.60+2.07% Fri

GLD$380.14−0.68% Fri

SLV$54.74−0.51% Fri

USO$147.37−1.77% Fri

USD/JPY¥157.82−0.15% Fri

The Charging Bull sculpture at Bowling Green in lower Manhattan — The Charging Bull at Bowling Green in lower Manhattan. The Nasdaq Composite closed at a record Friday, per EconCurrents, while SPY gained 0.74% and QQQ 1.02%. Photo: Tdorante10 via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.

Chips Extend the Rally on a Payrolls Miss, but Hard-Drive Makers Break Ranks

SPY rose 0.74% Friday to $769.64 and QQQ 1.02% to $749.58, which left SPY 0.22% lower on the week and QQQ 0.68% higher. SMH rose 2.07% to $630.60, 3.96% above last Friday's $606.56 and 5.7% under its June 22 closing high of $668.91.

SPY, Fri

+0.74%

QQQ, Fri

+1.02%

SMH, Fri

+2.07%

SMH, RSI(14)

68.6

Chips

The rally broadened, then split inside the group

Nvidia touched a record high Friday, per CNBC. Teradyne rose 8.0% and HPE 7.4%, while Seagate and Western Digital each fell about 10% after Nikkei reported Toshiba plans to double hard-drive capacity. SMH's RSI(14) reached 68.6, below its April high of 84.2.

Rates

The jobs miss cut hike odds, not the long end

Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% in September, per Kitco. The 10-year yield fell to about 5.18% before the open, per Yahoo Finance, but was near 5.25% by the close. Hike odds for October fell from about 70% to roughly 22%–28%, depending on the source.

SMH · VanEck Semiconductor ETF

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $630.60

Wednesday's $609.00 close → Thursday's $617.81 → Friday's $630.60, a 3.55% two-day gain that closed above Thursday's $620.91 high. The MACD histogram widened to +5.14 from +4.63 Thursday and +4.62 Wednesday, on a 14.46 line against a 9.32 signal; 50-day average $569.85, 200-day $499.50. Indicators computed through Friday's close from full OHLCV.

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Oil Jumps on China's Fuel Halt, Then Gives Back; Gold Sells Off on a Jobs Miss

USO rose 2.99% Thursday to $150.02 after China's refiners halted fuel exports, then fell 1.77% Friday to $147.37, per FMP. Brent settled Friday at $102.25, up 0.11% on the week. GLD fell 0.68% to $380.14 and is down 3.37% on the week; SLV fell 0.51% to $54.74, down 5.85%.

Satellite image of the Strait of Hormuz and the Musandam Peninsula — The Strait of Hormuz, seen by NASA's MODIS satellite. Iran's parliament speaker said Sunday the strait will not open until seven conditions based on the Islamabad memorandum are met, per Al Jazeera. Image: MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA GSFC, via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

Oil: a supply shock, then a reserve release

Chinese refiners suspended fuel exports to destinations outside Hong Kong and Macau, and U.S. troops headed to the Middle East, per Yahoo Finance; Brent settled Thursday up 4.37% at $102.31

European governments agreed Friday to release emergency diesel stocks, part of a G7/IEA plan involving 100 million barrels, per EnergyNow; WTI settled down 1.90% at $91.11

Washington sent proposals through a mediator, but Iran's Ghalibaf said Hormuz stays closed until Tehran's seven conditions are met, per Al Jazeera

Early Monday in Tokyo, Brent was $102.60, Murban $110.80 and WTI $91.09, per Gulf News, a Brent-WTI gap above $11

Gold: a jobs miss and no bid

Spot gold fell 0.83% to $4,142 Friday and about 3.4% on the week, per Kitco; early gains after the payrolls report faded

GLD closed under its 200-day average for the 25th straight session; Friday's close is 8.7% below the $416.16 average

Hike odds fell to roughly 22% from about 70%, per Kitco, yet the 10-year stayed near 5.25% and the dollar index rose on the week

USO · United States Oil Fund

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $147.37

Wednesday's $145.66 close → Thursday's $150.02 (+2.99%) → Friday's $147.37 (−1.77%). RSI(14) sits at 52.1; the MACD line (2.69) is below its signal (4.12), a histogram of −1.43 that has narrowed from −1.74 Wednesday. 50-day average $137.37, 200-day $115.17.

GLD · SPDR Gold Shares

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $380.14

Last Friday's $393.41 close → Friday's $380.14 (−3.37%). RSI(14) is 38.8; the MACD histogram is −1.95, narrower than −2.06 Thursday and −2.28 Wednesday, with the line (−5.14) still below its signal (−3.19). 50-day average $396.29, 200-day $416.16.

USO, Thu

+2.99%

USO, Fri

−1.77%

GLD, Fri

−0.68%

SLV, Fri

−0.51%

USD/JPY closed Friday at ¥157.82, down 0.15% from Thursday's ¥158.07 and up 0.34% on the week, per FMP's daily forex series. A Sunday-session print of ¥157.75 came on volume of only 9,665 contracts, so it is not used here.

A Payrolls Miss Cut Hike Odds; Wednesday's Fed Minutes Are the Next Test

Friday's jobs report pulled October hike odds to roughly 22%–28%, but the 10-year held near 5.25% and gold fell. ISM Services is due today at 10:00 ET and the Fed's September minutes Wednesday; the late-October FOMC meeting follows.

The Frances Perkins Building, headquarters of the U.S. Department of Labor, in Washington, D.C. — The Labor Department's Frances Perkins Building in Washington. Its Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that payrolls rose 29,000 in September against about 84,000 expected, per Yahoo Finance and Kitco. Photo: US Department of Labor via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0.

Thu Oct 1

OIL

China halts fuel exports Occurred

Chinese refiners suspended oil-product exports outside Hong Kong and Macau, and U.S. troops headed to the Middle East, per Yahoo Finance. USO rose 2.99% to $150.02; Brent settled at $102.31.

Fri Oct 2

JOBS

September payrolls miss Occurred

Payrolls rose 29,000 against about 84,000 expected, per Yahoo Finance, and July and August were revised down by a combined 60,000. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1%, or 3.0% on the year, per Kitco.

Fri Oct 2

OIL

Emergency diesel release reported Occurred

European governments agreed to release emergency diesel stocks as part of a G7/IEA plan, per EnergyNow. USO fell 1.77% to $147.37 and WTI settled at $91.11.

Sun Oct 4

IRAN

Tehran says Hormuz stays closed Occurred

Parliament speaker Ghalibaf said the strait will not open until Iran's seven conditions based on the Islamabad memorandum are met, per Al Jazeera. Foreign Minister Araghchi said Tehran hopes Washington will choose diplomacy.

Mon Oct 5

ISM

ISM Services PMI, 10:00 ET Scheduled

August's headline index was 55.4, with the employment component at 47.8, per the Weekly Economic Calendar newsletter. It is the main data release of an otherwise light week.

Wed Oct 7

FED

Minutes of the September FOMC meeting Scheduled

The minutes show how the committee weighed inflation against a labor market that Friday's report showed cooling. The same calendar lists no Fed speakers this week.

Thu Oct 8

CLAIMS

Jobless claims; PepsiCo, Delta and Constellation Brands report Scheduled

Weekly claims test whether September's payroll weakness is spreading. Applied Digital reports Wednesday.

Late Oct

FOMC

Fed policy meeting Scheduled

Fed funds futures implied about a 72% chance of no change after Friday's report, per Yahoo Finance; Kitco put the hike probability near 22%.

Flagged — unverified or single-sourced

No verified Monday pre-market prices: FMP's quote endpoints returned Friday's close, and no sourced S&P or Nasdaq futures figures turned up. The Sunday Guardian cited Dow futures near 51,477 without a percentage or session reference, so it is not used as a signal. Search results describing a Monday Nikkei rally of 2.5% matched Thursday's Micron-driven session, so we excluded them. All prices here are Friday's close, except the early-Tokyo oil prices, which come from Gulf News.
Index closing levels differ across sources, so we cite ETF moves computed from FMP closes. A search summary put the Nasdaq Composite near +1.2%, the S&P 500 near +0.7% and the Dow near +0.5%, which is consistent with SPY and QQQ.
Payroll consensus was about 84,000 per Yahoo Finance and near 90,000 per Kitco. Yahoo Finance reported unemployment of 4.2% against 4.1% expected; Kitco described it as holding at 4.2%.
October hike odds: roughly 22% per Kitco, and about a 72% chance of no change per Yahoo Finance, a gap of a few points between sources. The 10-year's Friday close is reported as near 5.25% (Kitco) after a premarket dip to about 5.18% (Yahoo Finance); we did not confirm the settlement.
The emergency diesel release and the oil settlement prices come from search-result summaries; the EnergyNow page itself returned an access error, so the 100-million-barrel figure is single-sourced.
FMP's daily "changePercent" field disagreed with close-to-close math for most tickers, including SMH, USO and GLD, so every daily move here is computed from closes.

Seagate and Western Digital Drop 10% on a Toshiba Report; HPE, Teradyne and EchoStar Rally

Sunday's tofu-agent batch flagged ALNY, ECHO, HPE, STX, TER and WDC. Each move below is Friday's session, re-priced from FMP closes and checked against dated news.

Seagate and Western Digital (each about −10.2%) fell on a report that Toshiba will double hard-drive capacity; Teradyne (+8.0%) rose with chips.

Fri Oct 2

STX

Seagate −10.21% ($945.57 → $848.99) Confirmed

Nikkei reported Toshiba plans to spend about ¥60 billion, roughly $380 million, to double hard-drive capacity at its Philippines plant by fiscal 2027, per Benzinga and Startup Fortune. Proactive Investors said the report raised concerns about tougher competition for AI data-center storage.

Fri Oct 2

WDC

Western Digital −10.22% ($462.56 → $415.29) Confirmed

Same Toshiba report, per Investopedia. Volume was 24.8 million shares against about 6.2 million Thursday. Zacks also logged a 10.22% decline.

Fri Oct 2

HPE

Hewlett Packard Enterprise +7.36% ($64.58 → $69.33) Confirmed

Daiwa upgraded HPE to Outperform from Neutral, per Schwab Network and Benzinga, and 24/7 Wall St. tied the move to AI server backlog, with Dell up 4%. The close is above Wednesday's $67.10 intraday high.

Fri Oct 2

TER

Teradyne +8.00% ($415.79 → $449.04) Partial

Zacks noted Teradyne's Magnum E2 memory-test launch aimed at HBM, DRAM and NAND demand. We found no report tying the day's move to a single event, and it came as chips rallied.

Fri Oct 2

ECHO

EchoStar +6.80% ($88.25 → $94.25) Confirmed

Its Dish DBS subsidiary emerged from Chapter 11, cutting indebtedness by about $4.35 billion, per The Motley Fool. Dish Wireless remains in bankruptcy proceedings.

Fri Oct 2

ALNY

Alnylam −4.96% ($231.18 → $219.72) Unexplained

Shares fell 2.89% Wednesday and 6.31% Thursday as well, 13.52% over three sessions. The only dated item we found was a law firm's investor-alert press release, which announces an investigation and does not explain the move.

How this list is built

Source: tofu-agent's October 4 batch (tickers ALNY, ECHO, HPE, STX, TER, WDC), with confidence scores of 0.30 to 0.34. Every signal was tagged "unexplained_move"; the discourse headlines attached to them, including an investor-alert press release, were not treated as causes. Duplicate signals for the same ticker were counted once. The October 2 and 3 batches were not reviewed.
Each move was re-priced from FMP close-to-close data, not the raw brief. Another outlet reported Seagate down 14.6% and Western Digital down 13.5%; we could not reconcile that with FMP's closes, which Zacks's Western Digital figure matches. Teradyne's +8.00% from FMP compares with 7.5%–7.75% elsewhere.
Four names have a confirmed catalyst, Teradyne is partial, and Alnylam is flagged Unexplained.

A Weak Jobs Report Helped Stocks and Chips, Not Gold or the Long End

Payrolls cut hike odds sharply, and the response was uneven: the Nasdaq and chips rose, gold fell, and the 10-year ended near 5.25%.

Gold got the data and ignored it again

Hike odds fell from about 70% to roughly 22%–28%, yet spot gold lost 0.83% Friday and about 3.4% on the week. With the 10-year near 5.25% and the dollar up on the week, GLD's 25th straight close under its 200-day average points to yields, not Fed odds.

Chips broke higher, but not evenly

SMH rose 3.96% on the week to $630.60, 5.7% under its June high. Teradyne and HPE gained 7%–8% while Seagate and Western Digital fell 10% on competition worries after the Toshiba report.

Oil traded supply, not jobs

China's export halt lifted Brent 4.4% Thursday and the diesel release took it back Friday, leaving Brent up 0.11% on the week. Murban at $110.80 early Monday sits about $8 above Brent, and Iran's Sunday statement keeps Hormuz shut.

The index still leans on tech

The Nasdaq closed at a record, but SPY is 0.22% lower on the week and 1.2% under its $779.37 year high. QQQ is 0.7% under its $754.54 high.

Friday's tape paid for news

HPE, EchoStar and Teradyne rose 7%–8% on an upgrade, a bankruptcy exit and a product launch. Alnylam, down 13.5% over three sessions with no named cause, was the exception.

The next test is today's ISM Services print, then Wednesday's minutes. A firm services reading with the 10-year near 5.25% would challenge the case that Friday's miss ends the hike cycle; a soft one would give gold and the long end their first reason to turn.

Where This Leaves Positioning

SPY $770

Up 0.74% Friday, down 0.22% on the week. Friday's $772.65 high and the September 21 close of $773.50 are resistance, with the $779.37 year high above. Friday's $767.15 low is the line to hold, then Thursday's $758.79.

SMH $631

Up 2.07% Friday and 3.96% on the week. Friday's $636.25 high is resistance, then the June 22 close of $668.91. Thursday's $607.25 low is support, with the 50-day average at $569.85 below.

GLD $380

Down 0.68% Friday, 25th straight close under the 200-day average ($416.16). Friday's $378.11 low and the September 28 low of $376.88 are support; a close above $393.41 would recover last Friday's level.

USO $147

Down 1.77% Friday after Thursday's 2.99% gain. Friday's $142.07 low is support; Thursday's $150.67 high and the September 24 high of $155.60 are resistance, with the 50-day average at $137.37.

This week

ISM Services today, Fed minutes Wednesday and jobless claims Thursday, with Hormuz headlines and the 10-year near 5.25% setting the tone.

Services cool and the minutes lean patient

Hike odds stay low, and gold gets its first real bid

A soft ISM print and minutes that favor waiting would extend Friday's drop in hike odds and let the 10-year ease.

Read-through: GLD above $393.41, SPY above $773.50, SMH above $636.25.

Services run hot or the minutes read hawkish

Hike odds rebuild and chips give back Friday

A firm print with the 10-year near 5.25% would undercut the view that the jobs miss ends the cycle and pressure last week's winners.

Read-through: SPY under $767.15, SMH under $607.25, GLD under $376.88.

Base case

Friday's payroll miss cut hike odds but not the 10-year, and the Nasdaq closed at a record. Chips took the improvement and gold did not. Today's ISM and Wednesday's minutes decide whether the split holds.

Equities: SPY rose 0.74% to $769.64, QQQ 1.02% to $749.58 and SMH 2.07% to $630.60. Seagate and Western Digital fell about 10% on Toshiba's capacity plan while Teradyne and HPE rose 7%–8%.

Commodities: GLD fell 0.68% to $380.14, down 3.37% on the week. USO rose 2.99% Thursday on China's export halt and fell 1.77% Friday on the diesel release, to $147.37.

FX & policy: USD/JPY closed at ¥157.82. October hike odds sit near 22%–28%, and the minutes land Wednesday.

The wildcard: Hormuz. Iran said Sunday it stays closed until its conditions are met, and Brent was near $102.60 early Monday.

—

Sources

Dow Futures Jump After Soft September Jobs Report — Yahoo Finance, Oct 2 2026 02 October 2026 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines — EconCurrents, Oct 2 2026 Nasdaq Hits Record High After Softer Jobs Data Cuts Rate-Hike Bets — Detroit News, Oct 2 2026 Stocks Rise Friday After Soft Jobs Data, Nvidia Leads Nasdaq to Intraday Record — CNBC, Oct 2 2026 Metals Give Back Jobs-Report Bounce as Oil, Yields Stay Elevated — Kitco PM Report, Oct 2 2026 Gold Heads for Weekly Drop as Strong Dollar, Elevated Treasury Yields Weigh — Kitco, Oct 2 2026 Oil Jumps 4% on Reports China Halts Fuel Exports, US Troops Head to Middle East — Yahoo Finance, Oct 1 2026 Oil Ends Volatile Week Mixed as Emergency Reserve Release Knocks WTI Lower — EnergyNow, Oct 2026 Oil Prices Split as Brent Tops $102, Murban Hits $110 — Gulf News, Oct 5 2026 Iran Says Strait of Hormuz to Remain Closed Until US Meets Conditions — Al Jazeera, Oct 4 2026 Weekly Economic Calendar: October 5-9, 2026 — Letters to a Young Investor Dow Jones Futures Prediction: Index Hits 51,477 — Sunday Guardian, Oct 4 2026 Seagate, Western Digital Shares Sink on Toshiba Production Report — Investopedia, Oct 2 2026 Seagate, Western Digital Fall as Toshiba Plans AI Storage Expansion — Proactive Investors, Oct 2 2026 Toshiba Wants to Double HDD Supply — Benzinga, Oct 2 2026 Toshiba's $380 Million Hard Drive Bet Wipes Billions Off Seagate and Western Digital — Startup Fortune, Oct 2026 Western Digital (WDC) Stock Sinks As Market Gains — Zacks, Oct 2 2026 This Hewlett Packard Enterprise Analyst Turns Bullish — Benzinga, Oct 2 2026 Dell Climbs 4% on AI Server Backlog; Hewlett Packard Enterprise Jumps 8% — 24/7 Wall St., Oct 2 2026 Teradyne Expands Memory Test Portfolio: Can It Beat KLAC & COHU? — Zacks, Oct 2 2026 Why EchoStar Stock Crushed It on Friday — The Motley Fool, Oct 2 2026 Securities Fraud Investigation Into Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Continues — GlobeNewswire, Oct 2 2026 Price data: Financial Modeling Prep daily OHLCV, current through the Friday Oct 2, 2026 close, the most recent confirmed session; USD/JPY reflects FMP's forex daily series. Daily percentages are computed from raw closes, not FMP's changePercent field, which disagreed with close-to-close math. Weekly percentages are Friday Sep 25 close to Friday Oct 2 close. Chart-data indicators (SMA50/200, RSI14 Wilder, MACD 12/26/9) for SMH, GLD and USO were extended through Oct 2 from the prior edition's series; recomputing the Sep 30 values from the stored closes reproduced the stored RSI and MACD to within 0.001, and the 200-day averages were rolled forward against the December 12 and 15, 2025 closes that dropped out of the window, matching FMP's quoted 50- and 200-day averages. Market Movers names (ALNY, ECHO, HPE, STX, TER, WDC) came from tofu-agent's October 4 batch and were independently verified against FMP closes and dated news, not run as raw signals.