Week ahead: The Nasdaq Closed at a Record 27,477.31, Up 1.05%, as the 10-Year Yield Settled Near 5.31%, Its Highest Since 2002, and ISM Services Prices Jumped to 74.0 SMH Rose 0.52% to $633.90, Trailing QQQ's 0.88%: Nvidia and Broadcom Gained 2.1% While Micron, AMD and Intel Fell Seagate (+4.5%) and Western Digital (+6.3%) Recovered Part of Friday's 10% Drop After Bernstein and Morgan Stanley Pushed Back on the Toshiba Report USO Fell 2.29% to $143.99 After Saudi Arabia Cut Asian Crude Prices and Kpler Data Showed Hormuz Flows Recovering; GLD Slipped 0.16% to $379.55 October Hike Odds Are 22%–24%; the Fed's September Minutes Are Due Wednesday; Schneider Electric Agreed to Buy PTC for $22.6 Billion

Markets

Week Ahead

The Nasdaq Hits Another Record Through a 2002-High Bond Yield, but Chips Lag the Megacaps and Oil Falls 2.3%

The Nasdaq Composite closed at a record 27,477.31, up 1.05%, and the S&P 500 rose 0.66% to 7,773.95, while the 10-year Treasury yield settled near 5.31%, its highest since 2002, per Yahoo Finance and Kitco. ISM Services slipped to 54.9 from 55.4, but its prices index jumped to 74.0, the highest since July 2022. Megacaps led: Microsoft rose 1.5%, Meta 1.9% and Nvidia 2.1% to a record close. SMH gained only 0.52% as Micron, AMD and Intel fell. USO fell 2.29% after Saudi Arabia cut Asian crude prices, and GLD slipped 0.16%.

By Lei Holdings Research

Monday, October 5, 2026 close, the most recent confirmed session · Published Tuesday, October 6, 2026, ahead of the Tuesday session · Published every weekday morning — see the full archive

SPY$774.83+0.67% Mon

QQQ$756.20+0.88% Mon

SMH$633.90+0.52% Mon

GLD$379.55−0.16% Mon

SLV$55.13+0.71% Mon

USO$143.99−2.29% Mon

USD/JPY¥157.89+0.04% Mon

Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange — A file photo of the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange. The Nasdaq Composite closed at a record Monday while SPY gained 0.67% and QQQ 0.88%, per FMP closes. Photo: Carol M. Highsmith, Library of Congress, via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

Megacaps Carry the Nasdaq to a Record While Chips Lag and Memory Slips

SPY rose 0.67% Monday to $774.83 and QQQ 0.88% to $756.20, leaving SPY 0.58% under its $779.37 year high; QQQ's $756.92 intraday high was a new high for the year. SMH rose 0.52% to $633.90, 5.2% under its June 22 closing high of $668.91.

SPY, Mon

+0.67%

QQQ, Mon

+0.88%

SMH, Mon

+0.52%

SMH, RSI(14)

69.5

Nvidia (+2.1%, a record close), Microsoft (+1.5%) and Meta (+1.9%) led Monday's gains, per FMP prices.

Chips

Nvidia and Broadcom rose; memory, AMD and Intel fell

Nvidia rose 2.1% to a record close of $238.90, Broadcom 2.1% and TSMC's U.S. shares 2.8%, while Micron fell 1.0%, AMD 0.3% and Intel 2.6%. SMH's 0.52% trailed QQQ's 0.88%, so the index leadership was megacap platforms rather than semiconductors broadly. SMH's RSI(14) is 69.5.

Rates

Stocks rose through a yield at its highest since 2002

The 10-year settled near 5.31% and the 30-year near 5.66%, per Kitco. ISM Services eased to 54.9, but its prices index reached 74.0. October hike odds are 22%–24%, down from about 70% last week, per Kitco.

SMH · VanEck Semiconductor ETF

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $633.90

Friday's $630.60 close → Monday's $633.90 (+0.52%), under Friday's $636.25 high. The MACD histogram widened to +5.31 from +5.14 Friday, on a 15.96 line against a 10.65 signal; RSI(14) is 69.5. 50-day average $571.30, 200-day $500.91. Indicators computed through Monday's close from full OHLCV.

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Oil Falls 2.3% as Saudi Arabia Cuts Prices and Hormuz Flows Recover; Gold Stalls Under the Yield

USO fell 2.29% Monday to $143.99, per FMP. Saudi Aramco cut its November Arab Light price for Asia to $5 a barrel below the regional benchmark, a six-year low, per Rigzone, and WTI fell 1.8% to near $89. GLD slipped 0.16% to $379.55; SLV rose 0.71% to $55.13.

Oil: supply is coming back

Aramco set November Arab Light for Asian buyers $5 below the regional benchmark, against a $2 discount for October; traders had expected a $5 rise, per Rigzone

Provisional Kpler data put crude flows out of Hormuz at 19.5–22.5 million barrels a day from Sept. 27 to 29, about double a month earlier, per Reuters via OilPrice.com

Iran's parliament speaker said Sunday the strait stays closed until Tehran's seven conditions are met, per Al Jazeera; we could not reconcile that with the Kpler flow data

WTI settled near $89 and Brent near $100–$101, depending on the source, against Friday's $102.25 Brent settle; the G7 agreed Friday to release 100 million barrels from reserves, per CNBC

Gold: a yield problem, not a Fed one

Spot gold traded near $4,138, down 0.05%, after reaching about $4,155 earlier in the day, per Kitco

GLD closed under its 200-day average ($416.07) for the 26th straight session, 8.8% below it

Kitco cited a stronger dollar and long-dated yields near multi-decade highs as caps on gold, even with October hike odds down to 22%–24%

USO · United States Oil Fund

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $143.99

Friday's $147.37 close → Monday's $143.99 (−2.29%), on a $143.33 low. RSI(14) fell to 48.5 from 52.1; the MACD line (2.14) is below its signal (3.72), a histogram of −1.58 that widened from −1.43 Friday. 50-day average $137.51, 200-day $115.56.

GLD · SPDR Gold Shares

Daily, 6 months · MA50/200, RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9)

Close $379.55

Friday's $380.14 close → Monday's $379.55 (−0.16%), on a $377.98 low. RSI(14) is 38.4; the MACD histogram is −1.79, narrower than −1.95 Friday, with the line (−5.43) still below its signal (−3.64). 50-day average $396.45, 200-day $416.07.

USO, Mon

−2.29%

GLD, Mon

−0.16%

SLV, Mon

+0.71%

USD/JPY, Mon

+0.04%

USD/JPY closed Monday at ¥157.89, up 0.04% from Friday's ¥157.82, per FMP's daily forex series. The series also carries a thin Sunday-session bar (¥158.10 on volume of 99,628 contracts), which is not used here.

Hotter ISM Prices and a 2002-High Yield Meet Wednesday's Fed Minutes

ISM Services slowed to 54.9 Monday, but its prices index jumped to 74.0 with the 10-year near 5.31%. October hike odds are 22%–24%. The Fed's September minutes land Wednesday, and Trump adviser Kevin Hassett reopened the question of Jerome Powell's seat on the board.

The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington, D.C. — The Federal Reserve's Marriner S. Eccles Building in Washington. The minutes due Wednesday cover the September meeting, where the committee raised rates a quarter point, per Yahoo Finance. Photo: AgnosticPreachersKid via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0.

Sun Oct 4

FED

Hassett says Powell should leave the board Occurred

The National Economic Council director said it is "time for him to move on," per Yahoo Finance, days after the Fed's inspector general found no evidence of criminal wrongdoing in the headquarters renovation. Powell has stayed on the board since leaving the chair in May; Kevin Warsh is chair.

Mon Oct 5

ISM

ISM Services PMI 54.9 Occurred

The headline fell 0.5 point from August's 55.4, the 27th straight month of expansion, per the ISM release. The prices index rose to 74.0, the highest since July 2022, per Kitco. The 10-year settled near 5.31%.

Mon Oct 5

OIL

Saudi Arabia cuts Asian crude prices Occurred

Aramco lowered November Arab Light to $5 under the regional benchmark, per Rigzone, as Hormuz flows recovered. USO fell 2.29% to $143.99.

Mon Oct 5

M&A

Schneider Electric to buy PTC for $22.6 billion Occurred

The all-cash offer is $205 a share, a 42.3% premium to PTC's prior close, with closing expected by the third quarter of 2027, per Axios and Euronext. PTC rose 33.5%.

Tue Oct 6

TRADE

August trade balance, 8:30 ET Scheduled

A light Tuesday before the minutes. Hormuz headlines and the 10-year are the other inputs.

Wed Oct 7

FED

Minutes of the September FOMC meeting Scheduled

The minutes show how the committee weighed a quarter-point rise against a labor market that Friday's 29,000-job report showed cooling, with ISM prices now at 74.0.

Thu Oct 8

CLAIMS

Jobless claims; PepsiCo and Delta report Scheduled

Weekly claims test whether September's payroll weakness is spreading. Applied Digital reports Wednesday.

Late Oct

FOMC

Fed policy meeting Scheduled

Kitco put October hike odds at 22%–24% after Friday's report, down from about 70% last week; December tightening risk remains live.

Flagged — unverified or single-sourced

No Tuesday pre-market data: the U.S. session had not opened when this was written, and no sourced S&P or Nasdaq futures figures turned up. All prices are Monday's close.
Index levels (Nasdaq 27,477.31, S&P 500 7,773.95, Dow 51,267.90) come from Yahoo Finance and BBN Times and match the SPY and QQQ moves computed from FMP closes. The 10-year's 5.31% is Kitco's "near" settle; a higher intraday print of about 5.35% reported elsewhere is not used.
Oil settlements are unconfirmed: Rigzone put WTI near $89 (−1.8%) and Brent near $100, while OilPrice.com and TradingEconomics showed Brent near $101.20–$101.31 intraday. USO's 2.29% decline is computed from FMP closes.
The Kpler Hormuz flow figures are provisional and sit against Iran's Sunday statement that the strait remains closed. We could not reconcile the two.
The September rate increase and its unanimous vote come from a search-result summary of the Hassett coverage; we did not confirm them against the FOMC statement. A Fox Business segment on the Hassett remarks still labeled Powell "Chairman"; Warsh is chair, and we follow Yahoo Finance and Investing.com.
Calendar sources conflict on the date of Constellation Brands' earnings (Tuesday in one listing, Thursday in last week's newsletter) and on whether a Fed speaker appears this week. We list neither.
FMP's news endpoint timed out during this run, so catalysts come from web search. FMP's daily "changePercent" field disagreed with close-to-close math for several tickers, so every daily move here is computed from closes.

SpaceX Jumps 7.6% on a Morgan Stanley Call and TSMC Talks; Storage Names Claw Back Part of Friday's Drop

Monday's tofu-agent batch flagged ACN, ARM, HPE, NTAP, RKLB, SPCX and WDC. Its stated moves are Friday's, so each name is re-priced here for Monday as well, from FMP closes, and checked against dated news.

SpaceX rose 7.6% Monday on a Morgan Stanley call; Accenture (−1.9%) and NetApp (−1.1%) slipped after Friday's moves.

Mon Oct 5

SPCX

SpaceX +7.63% ($158.96 → $171.09) Confirmed

Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas reiterated Overweight with a $300 target, per Yahoo Finance. Elon Musk said talks with TSMC on a chip plant supplying Tesla, SpaceX and xAI were only discussions so far, per TipRanks. Volume was 132.7 million shares; the stock also rose 7.35% Friday.

Mon Oct 5

WDC / STX

Western Digital +6.34% ($415.29 → $441.64); Seagate +4.49% ($848.99 → $887.09) Confirmed

Bernstein called Friday's Toshiba-driven selloff an overreaction, and Morgan Stanley said it would be aggressive buyers, per 24/7 Wall St. and TipRanks. WDC regained about 56% of Friday's loss and STX about 39%.

Mon Oct 5

PTC

PTC +33.5% ($144.03 → $192.26) Confirmed

Schneider Electric agreed to buy PTC for $205 a share in cash, valuing it at $22.6 billion, per Axios. The stock closed 6.2% under the offer. Not in the tofu-agent batch; we added it.

Fri Oct 2

NTAP

NetApp +5.22% Friday ($215.05 → $226.27), −1.10% Monday ($223.77) Confirmed

NetApp unveiled Novus, an AI-factory storage architecture, and a managed service on Oracle Cloud, per MarketBeat and StockStory. MarketBeat's 7.5% was intraday; the close was 5.22%.

Fri Oct 2

ACN

Accenture −6.31% Friday ($212.30 → $198.90), −1.94% Monday ($195.05) Partial

Benzinga attributed Friday's drop to profit-taking after Thursday's 15.78% jump ($183.37 → $212.30). We found no catalyst for Monday's further decline.

Fri Oct 2

RKLB

Rocket Lab +4.91% Friday ($70.46 → $73.92), −1.22% Monday ($73.02) Partial

Rocket Lab's 20-launch Synspective contract, its largest commercial Electron deal, was announced late Sept. 30, per Simply Wall St and The Motley Fool. The stock rose 1.12% Thursday, and no dated item explains Friday's larger move.

Fri Oct 2

ARM

Arm +5.18% Friday ($292.34 → $307.49), −1.49% Monday ($302.90) Unexplained

Summaries pointed only to the broad chip rally and AI-demand expectations. We found no company-specific item for either session.

How this list is built

Source: tofu-agent's October 5 batch (ACN, ARM, HPE, NTAP, RKLB, SPCX, WDC), with confidence scores of 0.18 to 0.32. Every signal was tagged "unexplained_move"; the attached discourse headlines, such as stock-comparison articles and a covered-call ETF piece, were not treated as causes. Duplicate signals for ACN, ARM and WDC were counted once.
The batch's stated moves match Friday's closes (ACN −6.3%, ARM +5.2%, NTAP +5.2%, RKLB +4.9%, SPCX +7.4%), not Monday's, so we re-priced Monday from FMP close-to-close data. HPE, covered Friday on a Daiwa upgrade, fell 1.37% Monday and has no separate entry.
Sell-side and intraday figures differ from closes: one summary put Western Digital at +7% and Seagate at +5% intraday, against +6.34% and +4.49% at the close.
Five names (SPCX, WDC, STX, PTC, NTAP) have a confirmed catalyst, Accenture and Rocket Lab are partial, and Arm is flagged Unexplained.

Stocks Looked Past the Bond Market Again, and Only the Biggest Names Led

The 10-year reached its highest since 2002 and ISM prices jumped, yet the Nasdaq set a record. The gains were narrow, and oil and gold each moved on their own drivers.

The Nasdaq rose through a 5.31% yield

The 10-year settled near 5.31% and the 30-year near 5.66%, while the Nasdaq rose 1.05%. With ISM prices at 74.0 and hike odds at 22%–24%, yields have little reason to fall; Microsoft, Meta and Nvidia carried the index.

Chips lagged and split

SMH's 0.52% trailed QQQ's 0.88%. Nvidia, Broadcom and TSMC rose 2%–3% while Micron, AMD and Intel fell, and SMH sits 5.2% under its June high. That is not a broad rotation back into semiconductors.

Storage retraced part of Friday

Western Digital regained about 56% of Friday's 10.2% loss and Seagate about 39% after Bernstein and Morgan Stanley pushed back on the Toshiba report. HPE and Teradyne, Friday's winners, each gave back 1.0%–1.4%.

Oil traded supply again

Aramco's surprise Asian price cut and Kpler's Hormuz flow data pulled USO down 2.29%, after Thursday's 2.99% gain and Friday's 1.77% loss. Brent near $100–$101 compares with Friday's $102.25 settle.

Gold had a yield problem

GLD's 26th straight close under its 200-day average came with hike odds down to 22%–24%. A stronger dollar, a 5.31% 10-year and ISM prices at 74.0 outweighed the Fed.

The next test is Wednesday's minutes. If they lean hawkish with ISM prices at 74.0, the 10-year has room to climb from 5.31% and the narrow megacap leadership loses its cushion; a patient tone would give gold and the broader market their first reason to join the Nasdaq.

Where This Leaves Positioning

SPY $775

Up 0.67% Monday after opening at its $769.63 low. Monday's $776.61 high is resistance, with the $779.37 year high above. Monday's $769.63 low is the line to hold, then Friday's $767.15.

SMH $634

Up 0.52% Monday, trailing QQQ. Friday's $636.25 high is resistance, then the June 22 close of $668.91. Monday's $626.96 low and Thursday's $607.25 low are support, with the 50-day average at $571.30 below.

GLD $380

Down 0.16% Monday, 26th straight close under the 200-day average ($416.07). Monday's $377.98 low and the September 28 low of $376.88 are support; Friday's $385.22 high is resistance, then the September 25 close of $393.41.

USO $144

Down 2.29% Monday. Monday's $143.33 low and the September 29 low of $143.29 are support, then Friday's $142.07. Monday's $147.12 high and Thursday's $150.67 high are resistance, with the 50-day average at $137.51.

This week

The August trade balance Tuesday, Fed minutes Wednesday and jobless claims Thursday, with the 10-year near 5.31% and Hormuz headlines setting the tone.

The minutes lean patient and the 10-year stalls

Breadth catches up to the Nasdaq

A patient reading would keep hike odds low and let yields pause, which would widen the rally beyond megacaps and give gold a bid.

Read-through: SPY above $779.37, SMH above $636.25, GLD above $385.22.

The minutes read hawkish and yields keep climbing

The megacap cushion thins

With ISM prices at 74.0, a hawkish tone could push the 10-year further above 5.31% and test a rally that rests on a few names.

Read-through: SPY under $769.63, SMH under $626.96, GLD under $376.88.

Base case

Stocks made a record through a 2002-high yield, but leadership narrowed to megacaps: SMH lagged QQQ, memory and AMD fell, and oil and gold both slipped. Wednesday's minutes decide whether the bond market's message catches up to the Nasdaq.

Equities: SPY rose 0.67% to $774.83, QQQ 0.88% to $756.20 and SMH 0.52% to $633.90. Nvidia, Microsoft and Meta led while Micron, AMD and Intel fell.

Commodities: USO fell 2.29% to $143.99 after Aramco's price cut and recovering Hormuz flows. GLD fell 0.16% to $379.55 under its 200-day average.

FX & policy: USD/JPY closed at ¥157.89. The 10-year settled near 5.31%, and October hike odds sit at 22%–24%.

The wildcard: Hormuz. Kpler shows flows recovering while Iran says the strait stays closed, and Brent is near $100–$101.

—

Sources

Stock Market Today, Monday October 5 — Yahoo Finance, Oct 5 2026 S&P 500 Climbs 0.66% to 7,773.95 as Tech Shrugs Off a 5.3% 10-Year Treasury Yield — BBN Times, Oct 5 2026 10-Year Treasury Yield Rises to Fresh 2002 High to Start the Week — CNBC, Oct 5 2026 Gold Holds Near $4,138 as ISM Prices Keep Yields Elevated — Kitco PM Report, Oct 5 2026 Services PMI at 54.9%; September 2026 ISM Services PMI Report — PR Newswire, Oct 5 2026 Oil Slides on Saudi Price Cut — Rigzone, Oct 5 2026 Oil Prices Fall as Hormuz Crude Flows Recover — OilPrice.com, Oct 5 2026 Oil Falls as Middle East Crude Exports Rise, G7 to Release Stocks — CNBC, Oct 5 2026 Iran Says Strait of Hormuz to Remain Closed Until US Meets Conditions — Al Jazeera, Oct 4 2026 Trump Aide Hassett Says Powell Should "Move On" From Fed Board — Yahoo Finance, Oct 2026 Trump Adviser Hassett Urges Powell to Leave Fed Board After Renovation Report — Investing.com, Oct 2026 Schneider Electric Buying PTC for $22.6 Billion — Axios, Oct 5 2026 Schneider Electric to Buy US Software Firm PTC in $22.6 Billion Deal — Euronext, Oct 5 2026 SpaceX Jumps to Highest Close Since June on Bullish Morgan Stanley Call — Yahoo Finance, Oct 5 2026 SpaceX Stock Price Forecast: 3 Key Reasons Why SPCX Surges — TipRanks, Oct 5 2026 Western Digital Jumps 7%, Seagate Climbs 5% as Bernstein Calls Toshiba Selloff a Storm in a Teacup — 24/7 Wall St., Oct 5 2026 Seagate and Western Digital Stocks Rebound as Morgan Stanley Says Get Aggressive — TipRanks, Oct 5 2026 Accenture Stock Pulls Back as Investors Book Profits — Benzinga, Oct 2 2026 NetApp (NASDAQ:NTAP) Stock Price Up 7.5% — MarketBeat, Oct 2 2026 Rocket Lab Adds 20 Launches in Its Biggest Commercial Electron Win Yet — Simply Wall St, Oct 2026 Rocket Lab Just Signed the Biggest Commercial Electron Deal in Its History — The Motley Fool, Oct 3 2026 ARM Shares Climb 5.2% — MarketBeat, Oct 2 2026 Price data: Financial Modeling Prep daily OHLCV, current through the Monday Oct 5, 2026 close, the most recent confirmed session; USD/JPY reflects FMP's forex daily series. Daily percentages are computed from raw closes, not FMP's changePercent field, which disagreed with close-to-close math. Chart-data indicators (SMA50/200, RSI14 Wilder, MACD 12/26/9) for SMH, GLD and USO were extended through Oct 5 from the prior edition's series; recomputing the stored closes reproduced the stored RSI and MACD to within 0.001, and the 200-day averages were rolled forward against the Dec 16, 2025 close that dropped out of the window. Market Movers names (ACN, ARM, NTAP, RKLB, SPCX, WDC) came from tofu-agent's October 5 batch and were re-priced against FMP closes and checked against dated news, not run as raw signals; PTC and STX were added by us.