Complete Warsh regime mindmap — interactive network of people, policies, investments, and macro theses

People / relationships Macro / policy doctrine Investment themes Market trades / instruments Risk / kill switches
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Complete Warsh regime mindmap Interactive mindmap showing the full network of people, policy doctrine, investment themes, market trades, and risk factors in the Warsh macro regime PEOPLE · NETWORK POLICY DOCTRINE INVESTMENT THEMES MARKET TRADES RISK · KILL SWITCHES Stanley Druckenmiller Apex · $4.49B · 30% avg return · mentor Kevin Warsh Fed Chair · $10.2M Duquesne fees · convergence node $10.2M · father-son · 15yr Scott Bessent Treasury · Black Wednesday · Druckenmiller protégé Alex Karp Palantir CEO · Stanford · DOGE axis Milton Friedman Hoover · "inflation is a choice" George Shultz Hoover · institutional credibility Peter Thiel Stanford Review · Palantir co-founder Jane Lauder Spouse · $1.9B · Ronald Lauder → Trump Memorial Sloan Kettering 30yr board · AI biotech edge · Druckenmiller Center QT + rate cuts Balance sheet $6.7T → $4T · cuts to 2.75% AI deflationary thesis TFP surge · 4% growth · no inflation New 1951 Accord Warsh + Bessent · Fed-Treasury sync Rules-based policy No dot plots · Taylor Rule · end discretion End of the Fed put No equity market backstop · discipline Bank deregulation Basel III rollback · CFPB curtailed Fiscal dominance theory Inflation = govt waste + fiscal excess · Palantir fixes it · Bessent restrains spending AI biotech revolution NTRA 12.8% · INSM 5.7% · TEVA 4% · Druck MSK Government AI infrastructure PLTR $13.7B contracts · IRS · DOGE · Karp Commodities — copper + gold FCX · COPX · GLD · 8yr supply deficit EM + dollar inversion EWZ · CPNG · SE · BRL · trade diversion Financial deregulation XLF 6.7% · GS · WWD · capital freed Stablecoins + crypto COIN · BITW · Bessent legislation · 10–15yr 2s10s curve steepener Long 2Y · short 10Y · target +100–150bps Short USD / long commodity FX UUP puts · long BRL · long AUD · DXY top 5-year belly play IEF · front-end cuts lift 5Y · +5–10% total return Long copper FCX · COPX · HG futures · Druck "big consensus" Kill #1 — Iran / oil shock WTI above $95 → Core PCE re-fires → hold rates Kill #2 — AI productivity stalls TFP flat 2 quarters → no cut justification Kill #3 — political capitulation Cuts before TFP → inflation reignites → gold